Does the Beirut Port Blast Investigation Lead to a Civil War in Lebanon?

Rabaa Nour elden wazer


  In connection with the exchange of shootings between supporters of the AML group and Hezbollah in recent days in Lebanon, particularly in the city of Taiyuan; Expressing anger at the arrest of “Tariq Beitar”, the investigator in the Beirut port case; Until the exchange of gunfire in the capital, Beirut, the situation in Lebanon fluctuated between a supporter and an opponent; This has brought the country back to the memory of the Lebanese civil war, given the worsening conditions Lebanon is experiencing in general and at all levels. In this article, are we reviewing the latest developments on the progress of the investigation of the Beirut port case and leading the investigation in Lebanon into a civil war between the main parties and movements?


The paper analyzed the background to the events in Lebanon on October 15, 2021 and the various factions and groups involved in the Beirut port investigation. We also analyze the government’s response and political trends to these events. We also addressed top international responses and key research recommendations.

 We then analyzed  Hezbollah and AML’s motives for holding these demonstrations and what the future situation would be if the demonstrations continued.

Main findings

The recent demonstrations in Lebanon provide a model of sectarian game to mobilize public opinion on a specific issue that we clearly find as the chants of the protesters and others. The movements have been limited to a particular “Shiite” community, while “Sunnis and Maronites” have not had the same presence in recent movements, so the problem is political. Therefore, the Lebanese government will close the investigation to maintain its internal stability and prevent further violent incidents between supporters and opponents of Al-Bitar.

 Current movements confirm that the investigation will not be peaceful, but may lead to other large-scale movements involving violence between Hezbollah supporters, the AML movement, supporters of Sunni parties, the Maronites and the Lebanese armed forces The Party (LFPT) is to expand, and this can be alarming in the face of deteriorating economic and social conditions, capital flight and investment and the proliferation of civilian weapons; This could help fuel the situation and bring the violence to the level of a civil war between different communities in Lebanon.


Key Recommendations

  • The military and security authorities in Lebanon should thoroughly investigate the recent protests and bring those responsible to justice so that the situation does not deteriorate further in the face of the difficult situation in Lebanon.
  • Recent events have made a difficult examination by the Lebanese government difficult, but legal channels must be respected, fair and objective investigations must be conducted into the Beirut port case and a system must be put in place to arrest those responsible. These steps shore up your position and form a solid foundation for it.



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