The repercussions of the intensified struggle between the Democrats and the Republicans on Congress and domestic politics

BY :  Basma Anwar  

By the time of the last presidential elections 2020 AD, the latent conflict between the two strongest parties in the United States of America – the Democrat and the Republican – who share power and wrestle over it, forming the political scenario of the United States since the nineteenth century, appeared to the world – the conflict – in the face of role-playing democracy, but With Trump’s defeat in the previous presidential elections, which he did not accept in front of his Democratic counterpart, “Joe Biden”, it became clear the truth of the hostility between them and revealed the other side of the United States, which entered a stage of political violence, where the Republicans rose up and demanded a recount of the votes, accusing their Democratic rivals of fraud and forgery, this to In addition, former President Donald Trump questioned the electoral results and called on his supporters to protest and go to Congress, and by responding to his demands, the Congress stormed into an incident that had not been witnessed in American history before, which resulted in violent confrontations between the supporters of the former president and the security forces. These events were classified as a difficult test for American democracy. Those elections that changed the face of America are no longer the same as they were before Trump’s term. This partisan division was not born of the moment, but rather an extension of the division of the entire American society. Events escalated and positions worsened, and in this report we will shed light on the cracks caused by the raging conflict between the elephant and the donkey. In the two chambers of Congress – Representatives and Senators – and how many divisions aura within the Republican Party that led to the failure of the process of electing a leader for them, which is usually conducted on a routine basis, and the extent of the repercussions of this declared conflict between the two parties on the internal stability of the country, and the extent of its impact on the political agenda of the current President “Joe Biden” And will the remaining period of Biden’s rule witness political calm or further escalation, especially with McCarthy’s promises to open investigations into several cases managed by the White House led by Biden, and perhaps they will go further than that, which is attempts to remove him from power, so will they enable them – the Republicans – to control the House of Representatives by a slim majority of that? Or will Biden overcome attempts to limit him by using his presidential powers, along with his use of the Senate?

Congress split and McCarthy concessions:

At the top of the political scene in the American interior, the Trumpian phenomenon, which caused a real division within American society between supporters and opponents, and the conflict between the two parties raged in late last year 2022, corresponding to the date of the midterm elections, in their race for control of Congress in the House – Representatives and Senate – which is one of the most important centers American decision-making, the Democrats hope to keep their control of Congress in the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the Republicans seek to regain the majority, if not the two-chamber Congress, then at least the House of Representatives, and the battle of the midterm elections ended with the Republicans obtaining a slim majority in the House of Representatives with 222 seats compared to 213 seats for the Democrats, from Out of 435 seats that make up the House of Representatives, while the Democrats took control of the Senate with 51 senators compared to 49 senators for the Republicans out of 100 senators that make up the Senate, these midterm elections brought Trump back to the political scene two years after Joe Biden took over running the country, in his “Trumpian” way Which works to “strengthen the social division” and its populism, which he used since his 2020 presidential election campaign, which left deep cracks in American politics and society, and these were and still are the biggest challenges that President Biden has faced since he came to power.

Despite their agreement in the visions – the Republican and the Democratic – towards the economy, the liberal path and the free economy, but they differed in some economic matters, “such as the right of workers, the minimum wage, support for trade unions, and health care. These are things that the Democrats work for, while the Republicans tend more to empower companies, employers and owners, and from here I started The divisions are divided between supporters of both parties, so new differences emerged between the two parties on several issues, such as the freedoms that the Democrats support more, such as gays and abortion rights, but they fight the proliferation of weapons in the hands of American civilians, while the Republicans persecute gays and consider them a danger to American society. Civilian hands are also in their view of resolving conflicts. Through the history of the two parties, it is clear that they are exchanging ideological centers between them.

On the level of the Republican Party, the severe division was revealed among its members during the process of electing their leader, which was in violation of the traditions of the party that won the majority in the House of Representatives. It was obstructed by many obstacles. Despite winning the majority of seats in the House, the vote for “Kevin McCarthy” who leads the Republican bloc in The House of Representatives has been in Congress since 2014. It has worked to achieve its goal and sought to provide guarantees to avoid obstructing its steps to reach the presidency of the House. This time is the 79th election for the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives and it was the most difficult as a result of the tensions between the two parties, but rather between members of one party because it carries risks. Societal and political before it reflects political division and militancy.

The electoral process for the Speaker of Parliament seemed difficult, because the Republicans are still in a state of chaos and a partisan identity crisis left behind by former President Donald Trump. The Republican Party believes that McCarthy does not owe sufficient loyalty to Trump, who will run in the 2024 White House race, as McCarthy clashed early with the Freedom Caucus – Trump’s right-wing supporters – for several reasons, most notably his position after the attack on the Capitol building on January 6, 2021, when he said that Trump bears the responsibility, and told his colleagues that the former president must resign, and the crisis was exacerbated by the failure of the Republican party leaders in the elected council to muster the votes necessary to elect McCarthy, and it took unusually five days of arduous negotiations with 20 deputies from the “Freedom” bloc of right-wing ideology The ultra-conservative within the Republican Party, and they declared their objection to McCarthy on the pretext that it is not compatible with their political agenda. The Republican Party occupies only 222 seats and the position of Speaker of the House needs 218 votes for his victory. During 15 electoral attempts, this faction insisted not to vote for “McCarthy” until he acquiesces to their demands in exchange for Vote for him as Speaker of the House of Representatives, so what was in front of him – McCarthy – but to respond to their conditions and presented a package of procedural concessions that maximize their influence within the House and weaken his position as Speaker of the House of Representatives. humiliating”, and gains for them.

Loyalty to Trump: He apologized to former President Donald Trump, and to prove his loyalty to him, McCarthy supported the expulsion of Liz Cheney from leadership, who was a staunch critic of Trump’s attempts to overturn his election loss, and McCarthy later campaigned against her re-election. All this in order to pave his way to the position of the House of Representatives, and Trump’s support came late. In his support letter, he said that McCarthy will do a wonderful job as Speaker of the House of Representatives, and the Republicans should not turn the great victory in the elections into a massive defeat, and everyone should vote for McCarthy and end the matter, and commented on his crime Democrat Nancy Pelosi that voting for McCarthy means sending Nancy to her home in California while she is broken, and in turn McCarthy promised the Yemeni Republican members to conduct a series of investigations affecting Biden, his family and his administration in addition to the CIA, the Central Intelligence Agency FIP and the Ministry of Justice, so this is the difficulty that the Republican Party faced in passing The selection of the speaker of the House of Representatives indicates that the United States has entered a new phase of political crises related to governance and state administration.

Political concession: Reducing the number of members required to adopt the decision to force a vote to remove the Speaker of the House of Representatives from five to one, which weakens McCarthy’s authority in favor of the members of the House, a change that he rejected, but the enforcement of this procedure requires a majority vote of the House.

Parliamentary concession: It is the largest concession that the republican “Freedom Bloc” obtained by granting them great influence in all files without exception by supporting their representation in Parliament committees, and approving their occupying 3 seats in the Parliament Rules Committee, as this committee enacts the rules for its work and decides Any bill that receives a vote, the duration of debate on it, the number of votes required for its approval, and the number of amendments that representatives can put forward through it, and therefore they will be able to obstruct the financing of government utilities, which they have always opposed the huge sums spent to finance the government. controlling the legislation in order to reach the parliament, and if it does not reach, there are no chances for its adoption, and these concessions ensure that this group implements its strict agenda in the field of spending, which is the main point of their efforts, in addition to supporting the bills adopted by the bloc in enhancing border security and reducing immigration and the annual budget.                    He was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives, the third highest position in the United States of America after the positions of president and vice president, in light of the fear of a number of Republicans who support him about the type of these concessions, which led to a sharp reduction in his powers from what was the situation in the days of “Pelosi”, and they expressed their concern that It derails the ambitious Legislative Council agenda, which the party set out after winning a majority in the parliament in the midterm elections. These concessions would limit the power of McCarthy’s office and expand the influence of far-right members of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives .

“McCarthy” received congratulations from the president in his hands for winning the presidency of the House of Representatives and called on him to “govern responsibly and in the interest of the Americans, and declared his readiness to work with the Republicans when possible, and said that the voters clearly indicated that they were waiting for the Republicans to be ready to work with him, and in turn – McCarthy – After being sworn in and inaugurated to succeed Democrat Nancy Pelosi, he said it was time to exercise control over President Biden’s policy, in addition to his pledges to launch a series of parliamentary investigations that would undermine the White House during the remaining two years of Biden’s term, with the start of Council work, such investigations would derail and freeze any hopes of passing more legislation supporting the president’s ambitious agenda.

“Biden” decisions in the filter of the Republican House of Representatives:       

The Republicans are working to exploit their majority in the House of Representatives, in order to activate their agenda to obstruct the plans of Biden and his administration in a number of files that they believe are inappropriate for the US national security strategy or the US strategies with regard to its allies, especially in important regions “such as the Middle East and South Asia regions.” This is in addition to the thorny files “such as China, Ukraine and Iran”, and therefore they seek to obstruct the passage of bills related to these files.

It was the first term of the Democratic President “Biden” before the midterm elections, during which he did not find any difficulty in implementing his agenda, but with the result of the midterm elections, which brought a Congress divided into two chambers between the two parties – the Democratic and the Republican – which put Biden in a state of having to deal with the new reality that is characterized by difficulty and the pursuit of the Republicans To him, and this new situation described by “Pelosi” as something that has become more like a thorn in Biden’s side, the Democratic president will not be able to pass new major projects, as the first Republican goal is attempts to undermine the Biden administration, by opening a barrage of investigations, on top of which are a number of cases that the Republicans say are It greatly affected the American interior, the most important of which are  .

Investigating the chaotic withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, which the US media described as “catastrophic” and the failure to evacuate multinational civilians in Kabul, then Republican Representative Michael McCaul – who chaired the House Foreign Affairs Committee – held the Biden administration responsible for the failure. In implementing the withdrawal agreement that took place during the era of the former president, he asked the State Department for a large number of documents related to the Biden administration’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, in reference to the official start of the investigation conducted by the Republican-led committee into the chaotic withdrawal of American forces, including these documents. A secret diplomatic telegram regarding the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, issued by officials who worked at the US embassy in Afghanistan, warning of the repercussions of the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2021. McCall signed a summons to hand it over to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, but the latter refused to present the telegram, forcing McCaul issued his first subpoena in his capacity as chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and in this regard, Polisi said that Biden administration officials who evaded questioning about the “withdrawal from Afghanistan” during the Democrats’ control of Congress will now be subject to long hearings. Republicans believe that the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan after 20 years of its occupation, which was carried out in a chaotic manner, led to a significant decline in America’s global image, and left negative effects on its credibility among its military allies, in addition to the killing of 13 American soldiers who were guarding Kabul airport, as well They accuse the Biden administration of helping the Taliban to reach power by leaving the Afghan army hostage in their hands, which allowed it to control it and its American military equipment, and the great American retreat in the field of women’s rights in Afghanistan, and Republicans believe that Biden’s policy towards Afghanistan has harmed the national security of the United States.

Republicans accuse the Biden administration of failing to confront the epidemic and wasting billions of dollars during the relief plan to deal with the repercussions of the Covid-19 epidemic. Despite the receding of the epidemic and the reopening of many states, his administration pressed for more government spending that stimulates inflation.

The southern border is a “dangerous crisis”: Republicans believe that the Biden administration is adopting a “radical” immigration policy, which caused the worst border crisis in US history, and Republicans accuse Biden of reversing the policies of former President Donald Trump, which succeeded in curbing the flood of irregular migrants. By building an iron fence that reduced their numbers to acceptable levels, before Biden stopped its construction, which led to the influx of large numbers of irregular immigrants to record high rates, as Republicans accuse him of turning a blind eye to the historic influx of immigrants trying to enter the United States illegally, In early January, President Biden visited the border between the United States and Mexico for the first time since his assumption of the presidency to visit the crossing point in Texas, which is at the center of the controversy over illegal immigration and drug trafficking, in order to discuss “border control operations” with local officials, before heading to The Mexican capital to hold a summit with his Mexican counterpart, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. McCarthy responded to this visit by saying that Baida and his interior minister would be held accountable.

Republicans believe that Biden’s mismanagement led to a rise in gas and energy prices, and as a result of his refusal to allow expansion of energy production within the United States, Biden resorted to several regimes to request pumping more oil into global markets, and that he insulted the position of president for failing to visit Saudi Arabia and pressure It has to pump more oil into the global markets.

Besides, the Republicans claim that they have evidence confirming the corruption of Biden and his son, and that the Democratic president lied to the American people when he said, “I never spoke to my son about his business dealings abroad,” and they believe that his son, “Hunter Biden,” benefited and exploited his family name to obtain deals. And huge fees from clients and companies in China and Ukraine, despite his lack of any qualifications or experience that justifies that, and despite the risks to US national security, Biden condones his son’s corruption, and sees Representative James Comer, who is the new Republican chairman of the House Oversight and Reform Committee Representatives, that President Biden is involved in his son Hunter’s international business deals, and the American people have the right to know the details of his family’s international business, and his role in it.

Biden no longer hopes to pass major legislation after failing to control both houses of Congress, as was the case in the first term of his term in January (January) 2021 despite his control of the Senate, and his promises of a federal law enshrining the right to abortion, banning assault rifles, and reform A wide electoral process to protect the interests of minorities in voting is far from reach, and with the Democrats controlling the Senate, the Republicans will also not be able to prejudice the measures adopted during the Biden era that they pledged to destroy, but the current conflict between members of Congress is the issue of the American debt ceiling, and there are great fears of Entering the United States in a state of paralysis or government shutdown.

The dilemma of “raising the public debt ceiling”:      

The fiercest congressional battles between its new members of the two parties – the Democratic and the Republican – revolve around “raising the public debt ceiling”, which threatens the United States with paralysis or a historic closure for reaching the permissible maximum of 4.31 trillion dollars. Congress usually ratifies its increase every year, but the House The current Republican refuses to raise the public debt ceiling, and they believe that in return for allowing the Biden administration to borrow, the White House must first reduce the government spending ceiling and give up many projects that the Democrats believe are necessary, and in return the White House stipulates that the reduction demanded by the Republicans does not affect the “health programs.” And social security and military spending, and that the reduction in expenditures does not affect the issue of financing the Ukrainian war. Therefore, the Republicans’ refusal to agree to increase the borrowing ceiling threatens to disrupt the largest economy in the world, and that would push the United States of America to default, which causes panic in the financial markets. And then in the global economy at a time when the United States is trying to pass a critical economic period after the“Covid-19 pandemic” without falling into recession”.

The battle to raise the public debt ceiling is “unresolved”:

The issue of raising the ceiling of the US public debt has become routine, repeated traditionally, as the indebtedness has been raised or its maximum suspended 78 times since 1970, often without difficulty, but in the 79th time in December 2021 it came with tensions that carried societal and political risks before it reflected a division and Political and social extremism.

Among the issues raised since the beginning of the legislative sessions of the new House of Representatives, negotiations to raise the ceiling of the American public debt and financing the federal state, and perhaps the release of additional financial packages for the war in Ukraine, it is customary for the governments of the United States to cover the deficit between revenues and expenditures, through borrowing – which It is often in the form of negotiable securities, treasury bills, and sometimes bonds guaranteed by the federal government, and is not affected by inflation, as countries, governments, and major funds invest in them – whether from external markets, mostly states and governments, or from the inside represented by major American banks and financial institutions. , And the permissible borrowing in the United States of America is 31.4 trillion dollars, but it exceeded 31.38 trillion dollars, according to the latest data on the US Treasury website, and this means that the public debt is approximately 130% of America’s gross product, and every American citizen has become burdened with this debt. The US Treasury Secretary, Janet Blaine, has warned Congress that if it does not raise the public debt ceiling, to exceed the amount of 31.4, the country will enter into exceptional measures, which will have bitter consequences for the Americans at home, and will also be reflected on Washington’s ability to pay its debts, and its impact on The internal side, contributions to pension funds and sovereign funds will be suspended, which in no way can last for more than six months, and with more dismantling, health care operations will be affected, and many medical services provided by the federal government to its citizens, and many will suffer From small and medium businesses that depend on federal loans, and the salaries of federal employees will stop being paid, and as a result many companies will close their doors, and this explains that the domestic American economy, which was greatly affected by the repercussions of Covid-19, and increased it, whether the consequences of the Ukrainian war, will face more Recession, inflation and recession, along with an increase in prices, which means the inability of the American citizen to meet his daily needs in the way he used to.

And in the event that the battle between the two parties continues and each side clings to its opinion and the process of raising the public debt ceiling is obstructed, then the decisive result is the failure of the United States to pay foreign debt and its interests, which cannot be fixed by the recognition of “Blain” itself, which may prompt a reduction in the sovereign credit rating of America Therefore, it will not be seen as the best place for investment around the world, and the situation will worsen and get worse if the countries of the world and the international investors demand their deposits, or try to liquidate the treasury bills they possess. The Republicans hold the Democrats fully responsible, given that they had the upper hand at that time. They were too extravagant, and in this context, the Republicans are taking advantage of the time factor to try to force the Democrats to give up some of the expenses that they approved when they had the majority of the seats in the House, and among the expenses that the Democrats believe that the Republicans want to cancel are those related to health insurance, especially for retirees, as well as food aid for the poor Yellen emphasized that raising or suspending the cap “does not mean allowing new spending” but simply “allowing the government to fund legal obligations that Congress and the president of both parties have made in the past”.

McCarthy said, “Spending is out of control, there is no oversight, and it cannot continue in this way.” He added, “We need to change the way we spend money recklessly in this country, and we will make sure that that is what happens.” The country’s debt, indicating that he has no intention of negotiating with the Republican majority about that, and the Democrats considered that raising the limit is intended to repay the borrowed money, including the billions spent under President Donald Trump. On the subject, “and that is what is required,” and that the issue of debt should not be politicized, her aide Andrew Bates said, “House Republicans are literally telling Americans that they are ready to bring about the most egregious meltdown in modern history if they cannot cut spending on the most popular programs”.

Biden and McCarthy meeting   :     

Discussions took place between Joe Babden and McCarthy during their first meeting, which did not result in any settlement of the dispute over the American debt. And he stated that he made it clear to Biden that he would not agree to raise the US debt ceiling without the White House making concessions on the spending plan this year, so the level of spending should not exceed what it was last year, and on the other hand, the White House believes that the Republicans are preventing the approval that is usually routine on Raising the country’s credit limit so that the Democrats can be pressured to agree first to large budget cuts in the future.In this regard, the White House accuses the Republicans of taking the economy “hostage” to extract politically motivated budget concessions, but he stressed – the White House – that he would not allow it to be The current debt ceiling is part of any negotiations about future government spending given that $31.4 trillion is a figure that was originally agreed upon in Congress, describing refusing to raise the debt ceiling as “refusing to pay a credit card bill that needs to be paid,” he said.

The Treasury warned of the consequences of failure to raise the debt ceiling by next June, which would result in the US defaulting on its $31.4 trillion debt, which in turn would render the government unable to pay its bills, undermine the reputation of the US economy and likely cause panic among investors.

Last March, Biden presented the federal budget proposal for the 2024 fiscal year, which begins on October 1, 2023, and ends on September 30, 2024. The total budget amounted to $6.8 trillion, in which Biden proposed increasing spending on the military and a wide range of programs. New social while reducing the budget deficit in the future.

But this budget will pass through the filter of Congress, which is the body constitutionally authorized to approve the federal budget, and after the budget bill passes in the House of Representatives and the Senate by a simple majority, the amended legislative proposal is sent to the president for signature, and the president has the right to refuse to sign and use the presidential veto, which can be overcome With a two-thirds majority in Congress, and therefore Biden’s budget came expanded and ambitious, especially in domestic issues and fields, and because he knows that he will face major challenges to pass the budget in Congress, which will inevitably reduce its size, as McCarthy commented on the budget, saying: “It cannot be Biden Seriously!” The budget contains about $5 trillion in proposed tax increases for high-income earners and corporations over a decade, mostly to offset new spending programs aimed at helping the middle class and the poor. Oil and gas companies, totaling $31 billion.

The budget also proposes expanding commercial health insurance, climate legislation and health care. The state budget allocated $70.5 billion, an 11 percent increase over last year. The budget emphasizes support for Ukraine by allocating an additional $1.7 billion in aid in confronting Russia. Blain stressed in late February while in Kiev that economic aid to Ukraine is vital, adding, “Our support is motivated, first and foremost, by a moral duty to come to the aid of a people under attack. We also know that our aid is not charity, as President Zelensky has said.” It is an investment in “global security and democracy”.

Besides, allocating 4.2 billion dollars for the climate crisis, 1.2 billion dollars for food insecurity. $10.9 billion for global health programs More than $10.5 billion to support global humanitarian needs, including resources to rebuild the United States Refugee Admissions Program and resettle 125,000 refugees.

Biden also called for allocating $3.4 billion to strengthen democracy around the world, by supporting new democracies, and building resilience against the efforts of authoritarian regimes.

The budget also raises military spending (the Pentagon budget) to more than $842 billion, an increase of 3.5% over last year’s budget, which makes it among the largest peacetime expenditures in US history, and Biden’s goal to reaffirm the US commitment to national security in In light of the escalating strategic rivalries with both Russia and China.

The presentation of Biden’s budget set off a series of showdowns and arguments over the federal debt ceiling (the amount the Treasury Department is allowed to borrow to pay bills the government has already incurred), and Congress should raise or suspend the limit to avoid default, but Republicans want to cut future spending before agreeing to the bill. to do that. They only see the need to extract spending cuts from the White House as a condition for raising the debt ceiling, so they content themselves with commenting that spending is out of control, and McCarthy commented on the draft budget by saying, “I do not think that raising taxes is the solution. We analyze his budget, and then we will start working on our budget.” . McCarthy described Biden’s proposed budget as “not serious at all” and reiterated his concerns about government spending. There are expectations that the Republican Party will be shocked by an alternative budget proposal that includes measures such as cutting foreign aid by 45% and cutting funding for the FBI.

In all, in the end, despite the Republicans obtaining a small majority in the House of Representatives and their leader ascending to the presidency of the House, Trump’s appearance before the court on charges of criminal offenses made the Democrats in a state of confusion between expecting Trump’s political end by appearing before the court on charges of criminal charges that occurred before the 2016 elections, and this is a precedent Of its kind in American history as the first former US president to be tried criminally, and his defeat in 3 consecutive elections came as a disappointment to his party and his broader movement known as “MAGA”, and to Trump himself “the 2018 midterm congressional elections, the 2020 presidential elections, and the 2022 congressional midterm elections,” especially since he was involved In a conspiracy to undermine the integrity of the 2016 elections, while others believe that he may exploit this in his favor, he confirmed during his trial that he is “not guilty” describing the measures taken against him as political persecution and interference in the elections, and in this direction his legal team may press to submit appeals to cancel the case Or suppressing different parts of the evidence, and during these procedures, Trump carries out his usual activities and prepares for the 2024 presidential primaries. Politically, his campaign may take advantage of this trial to increase the percentage of the Republican Party vote in his favour. Jason Miller, the first advisor to his campaign, stated that the campaign raised more than one million dollars. Since Trump’s conviction was announced to the public, Trump has commented on his conviction of 34 charges that the United States is “going to hell,” indicating that what is happening now is unprecedented interference in the elections, and in an attempt to clear himself, he said that the only crime he committed was fearlessly defending the American nation from Those who seek to destroy it, and although the charges against him helped raise his approval rating among Republican voters, CNN polls showed that most Americans support Trump’s trial by more than 60%.

On the other hand, Trump, during his tenure, succeeded in curbing Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea without harming the United States, and this is a point that counts for him, while Biden failed in that matter, which led to an escalation of the situation in various ways and the occurrence of crises, some of which reached an actual war, while others are on their way. To ignite the war, and this is what the Republicans exploit to charge and provoke the American people against President Biden, and assure them that the Democrats waste too much in the field of supporting Ukraine and do not care about the side of the American citizen and are working on the pace of American support for the Ukrainian war without borders, and that it did not serve American national security, but rather harmed it internally Externally, this excessive spending must be stopped and peaceful solutions should be searched for.

And the Republicans believe that it is necessary to reduce spending, and end the Biden doctrine of debt policies, and this matter will not be accepted by the Democrats, because it means reducing expenditures or increasing taxes, both of which lead to the Democrats losing their presence and popularity among their supporters, in favor of the Republicans, and in the case of reducing expenditures, the matter will affect On one of the most important issues of tug-of-war in Congress, which is the issue of financing the war in Ukraine, and in this regard the Republicans are divided over whether and for how long it should continue to provide weapons and other forms of military aid to Ukraine, and McCarthy has previously said that he supports Ukraine, but he refuses Presenting “blank checks”, as the Americans suffer from stagnation due to the rise of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which is estimated at about $100 billion. Today, it is noted that there is American military suffering due to the impact of the American stockpile, which has been greatly depleted by military operations in Ukraine due to the provision of military support to it, where it has “Washington” by buying back weapons it had previously sold to South Korea to send them back to Ukraine, and the US Chief of Staff, General “Mark Milley,” said that Washington should start trying to find diplomatic outlets to end the military dialogue between Ukraine and Russia, as it seems that there is military suffering in providing endless support Which the Biden administration has always sought, and in this regard, the Republicans manipulate and enrich the feelings of Americans against Biden.

And with the International Monetary Fund predicting a major economic recession in 2023 and the high cost of living, it was very easy to convince the Americans that the current US administration is the first cause of this suffering, which negatively affects Biden’s future and the Democratic presence, especially since he announced his intention to run in the presidential elections, but he did not announce them officially. And it affects the presence of the Democrats in winning the upcoming elections, but the economy may change and be in a better condition and a good condition and grow by the advent of the 2024 presidential race and Biden will be in a good position, as the International Monetary Fund expected during the current month that the global economy will grow this year by 2.8 percent , down slightly from its previous estimate in January (-0.1 percentage point), and the Fund raised its forecasts for the United States during the years 2023 and 2024, estimating that its economy will grow by 1.6 percent in 2023, an increase of 0.2 points from its estimates. the previous year, and 1.1 percent in 2024 (+0.1 points ).

There is great readiness within the Democratic Party to run for the presidential race against Trump, with the entry of a young candidate from the latter’s party, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (45 years), who will show his rivalry with Biden, 80, and the far right aims to oppose the Democratic administration’s plans to raise the ceiling Debt and linking it to corresponding measures to reduce government expenditures and reduce the salaries of federal officials, and therefore McCarthy uses his paper threatening to default on debt payments at the negotiating table to put pressure on Biden in this regard, as Biden and the Democrats may not be able to pass major new projects, but with the Democrats controlling the Senate, their opponents will not be able from doing so too.

And as a continuation of the scene, the Republicans’ ability is limited to obstructing or blocking the passage of Biden’s agenda projects, as they only have the Chamber of Representatives, while the Democrats have the powers of the president alongside the House of Representatives, and this means that overthrowing Biden or trying to depose him is faltering because it needs both chambers of Congress, but the only area that will be able to Among them, the Republicans are obstructing Biden to a large extent on the issue of the budget, in addition to the file of raising the public debt ceiling, but apart from this, Biden still has wide control, especially foreign policy, and usually he can rule by legislative decrees, in addition to his possession of the presidential veto, which he actually used in late March to nullify a charged decision. A political policy approved by the Senate earlier in the same month abolishes a rule that allows pension fund managers to evaluate environmental, social, governance and climate change aspects when making their decisions about investing fund funds, and Biden justified the American people for using his veto, saying: “This law endangers your retirement savings by making a study The environmental, social and governance dimensions of the investment decision are illegal, because the Republican members of the House of Representatives do not like these dimensions.” In order for the Republicans to override the presidential veto, the support of a two-thirds majority of the members of Congress must be obtained.

The final :

result indicates that the issue of isolating Biden has become very difficult for the Republicans, but it is possible that several political maneuvers will occur, with the Republicans submitting demands to Biden as a type of political exchange to waive several budget expenditures.


There may be space to negotiate changes in future budgets, and McCarthy indicated that he informed Biden that he is against defaulting on the current debt, but wants future spending to be cut, given that “our current path is not sustainable,” pending access to the negotiating table, but Biden does not think it is important, and accused Biden of endangering US financial markets by delaying negotiations with Congress on raising the debt ceiling, adding that “the US economy is too important for us to play with.” Even if McCarthy seeks to show flexibility, his power in Congress depends almost entirely on the wishes of a hard-right group of Republicans who will likely prefer a challenge regardless of the global financial repercussions. Republicans pinpoint areas where funding could be cut. He is betting on the emergence of internal divisions to the surface in light of the demands of the more right-wing Republicans to cut spending on popular programs.


The polarization is not only between the two parties, but the polarization within the Republican Party as well, which was evident in the process of electing a leader for them, which was hampered by deep divisions within the party, which weakened their position in the parliament.

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