Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of protracted conflicts; The way in which they interact, their longevity, the behaviour and demands of the perpetrators, the parties’ terms of settlement, the dynamism of which they are characterized, and the intensity of their competition reflect their complexity.
This complexity increases as these conflicts interact with global changes s interests become more overlapping and complex, and the challenges surrounding political settlements increase in order to increase the importance of careful follow-up and analysis of such interactions as to enable us to set the record straight for choosing the most appropriate policies and preparing for the scenarios presented, In this number, together with tracking regional conflicts, we are approaching their internal interlinkages and international and regional interaction.
The thirty five issue of Shaf Centre’s monthly Conflict Trail Report highlights the Middle East and Africa arena of conflict States, tracking important issues, highlights and local, regional and international interactions. The report covers the conflict situation in 10 States (Ethiopia, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon and Mali)
Executive Summary
Before we shed light on developments in the situation of conflict in the regions to be dealt with, the situation of conflict in the 10 States of concern is broadly presented before proceeding to the detailed report.
Ethiopia:
In light of the continued Ethiopian intransigence and the insistence of the Addis Ababa government to complete the construction project of the Renaissance Dam without taking into account the historical rights to the Nile waters of Egypt and Sudan, the Egyptian military moves to deploy its forces in Somalia came; To thwart the attempts to expand Ethiopian influence in the Horn of Africa region, and it seems that the next stage will be a decisive blow to Addis Ababa’s illegal endeavors in the region, and Egypt will not allow any purposeful attempts to tamper with its national security and the future of its people, and it seems that Ethiopia is wary of the Egyptian move in this regard, as for the Renaissance Dam and the generation of electricity from it, there are some suspicions about the completion of this project, according to the period it has specified, and the internal security disturbances may push it towards backing down from the Somaliland agreement, but it seems that those behind Addis Ababa want to accelerate the step of implementing Ethiopia’s maritime access plan on the Red Sea, and support its movements despite what it is going through. Sudan: Sudan is groaning and suffering, its cities and vital arteries are being destroyed, and its people are being displaced, in a war that does not seem to have an end in sight, and has resulted in one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, amid the insistence of the army and rapid support forces to fight the confrontation to its end, even if it lasts a hundred years. To this day, international efforts have not succeeded in extinguishing the fires of war, the latest of which were the Geneva talks in August, which were held over 10 days, and did not set any clear horizon for resolving the crisis. The fierce battles continue to reap more victims in the states of Sudan, and the humanitarian tragedy is worsening with the flood season and the spread of epidemics; therefore, the priorities of this period must be to deliver food aid and vaccines quickly; to reduce the number of deaths; due to hunger and disease.
Somalia:
The crisis is still raging between Somalia and Ethiopia, as a result of Addis Ababa signing an agreement with Somaliland at the beginning of last year, and the failure of the Turkish mediation initiative to resolve the dispute between the two countries. The internal scene in Somalia is dominated by the continued attacks of the Al-Shabaab movement on the country with bombings and direct fighting with government forces, but Somali efforts continue to undermine that movement. On the external level, we find that there is an effective role by the Somali president and foreign minister to strengthen diplomatic relations with some countries; diplomatic relations with Iran were restored, and Somalia received two Egyptian military aircraft and four military helicopters from Italy, as part of strengthening the fight against terrorism.
Iraq:
There is a noticeable development towards promoting Iraqi economic development, as Iraq strives to build balanced relations with friendly countries within the framework of enhancing regional and international bilateral cooperation, which achieves economic growth, serves the Iraqi people and meets the basic needs of citizens on the one hand, and on the other hand enhances security and stability through the international agreements concluded by Iraq in the security field, which bear fruit in eliminating terrorist strongholds and securing the borders from smuggling gangs, in an important step to cleanse the country of ISIS and in conjunction with ending the tasks of the international coalition, which achieves more security and stability and ensures the preservation of the sovereignty of the Iraqi state.
Yemen:
We find that August is not much different from the previous month in terms of the Yemeni scene, as complexity, entanglement and ambiguity are the prevailing feature, of course, especially with the return of the peace process to square one in light of the Houthi escalation in the Red Sea, which may lead the region to a direct regional war after the Houthi militia announced the fifth stage of escalation against Israel. This coincides with the inability of the United Nations and international and regional actors to reach a unified formula that brings together the two parties to the internal conflict in Yemen within a comprehensive framework. In light of this military escalation and political confusion internally and externally, Yemen is still experiencing one of the most difficult and largest humanitarian crises in the world, the severity of which is increasing in light of the dangerous climate changes that have caused 7 natural disasters such as floods and torrents. Accordingly, Yemen revolves in a vicious circle largely controlled by competition and conflict over influence, control and power, so that all parties emerge with relative gains, except for the Yemeni people, who have been suffering for nearly thirteen years.
South Sudan:
South Sudan is already witnessing protests in the capital over wage shortages, and more are expected in the coming period. Its people are under pressure to make up the gap in salary payments in unexpected ways, and are facing a growing food insecurity crisis. The country is also suffering from the impact of the conflict in Sudan and the dwindling financial support for the humanitarian response. The potential elections and the rainy season put South Sudan at a critical crossroads. The transitional government has the opportunity to choose the path of peace and prosperity over fear and despair. It is important that party leaders in South Sudan engage in urgent dialogue to agree on the conduct of the upcoming elections so that the country does not slide into chaos.
Syria:
The situation in Syria is deteriorating on all levels. There is no positive movement in the political files at the forefront of the scene, most notably the normalization between the Syrian regime and Turkey, as well as the file of the Syrian opposition and its status; if such normalization occurs. As for the security and humanitarian situation in the country; The state of chaos continues, and the current situation portends further exacerbation of the economic problems suffered by Syrians and refugees returning to the country, after the state of rejection of their presence, which is witnessed by countries such as Turkey and Lebanon. All of this shows that the Syrian crisis file has not yet reached zero.
Libya:
Libya is witnessing a state of division and political tension that suggests the return of the specter of civil war to the country, especially with the successive political and military movements in recent times. The Libyan House of Representatives in Benghazi announced the end of the term of the executive authority, which came with a unified government headed by Abdul Hamid Dabaiba, and the parliament considered Osama Hamad’s government to be legitimate. Meanwhile, there is a fierce conflict between the forces of the East and the West; to control the Central Bank of Libya, the repercussions of which quickly appeared on the economic level; as most Libyan banks announced the suspension of all their services, and the Libyan Foreign Bank, into which oil revenues are poured before they are transferred to the Central Bank, received warnings from international financial institutions to stop financial dealings with Libya; until this crisis is resolved.
More dangerous than all of this was the move by a local group in the AlWahat region, which is the largest oil-producing region in Libya, to completely stop production, demanding a fair distribution of wealth between the regions of Libya before reopening the fields; which means that Libya has returned to square one before signing the political agreement in Geneva, which is a dangerous square that carries major security and political threats.
Lebanon:
It can be said that the current situation between Hezbollah and Israel indicates a relative development in the pattern of confrontations between the two sides from the traditional pattern, and that it is not limited to the border areas between them, as it was in the past, and this was evident in Israel targeting the party’s weapons stores deep in Lebanese territory in eastern Lebanon, in addition to the drone that fell for the first time in northern Lebanon, in addition to the continued military escalation in the border areas between them, especially the southern front. Despite this recent escalation, the military situation this month also indicates a balance in the rules of engagement between Hezbollah and Israel, while avoiding the outbreak of a comprehensive war in the region. It is expected that military operations will continue during the coming period within the prevailing situation since October 7, which means that things remain open to all possibilities.
Mali:
The security and political unrest in Mali may lead to the expansion of the conflict and the spread of its infection to neighboring countries. The intervention of Wagner forces will not contribute to resolving these crises, but rather exacerbate the situation day after day, especially after the defeat suffered by this group, until the confrontation became between Russia and Ukraine, and fears are raised about the possibility of this conflict between these two poles turning into a proxy war that erupts on African lands; if this happens, it will have dire consequences, not only for Mali, but for Africa as a whole; Accordingly, it is necessary for regional and international entities and organizations that sponsor peace in the region and respect human rights to intervene to restore stability and try to find a peace agreement between the Tuaregs and the Bamako government, in order to avoid new conflicts, control current tensions, and spare the Malian people the scourge of wars and conflicts.
