Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of long-term conflicts, reflecting the way they interact, their duration, the behavior and demands of the actors, the conditions of the parties to settle them, the dynamism that characterizes them, the intensity of its competitiveness, and the complexity of it.
This complexity increases in light of the interaction of these conflicts with global changes, as the interests of the actors become more intertwined and complex, and the magnitude of the challenges surrounding political settlements increases, so that the importance of closely following up and analyzing these interactions in a way that enables us to put things in perspective to choose the most appropriate policies and prepare for the scenarios presented.
The forty-fifth issue of the monthly report (The Course of Conflicts) issued by SHAF Center sheds light on the arena of conflict countries in the Middle East and Africa, and we track the important issues in them, the most prominent developments, and local, regional and international interactions, and the report includes the conflict situation in ten countries, as follows (Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, and Mali).
Overview of the report
Before we shed light on the developments of the conflict in the areas under consideration, we will present the conflict situations in the ten countries of concern in a general overview before moving on to the detailed report:
1- Ethiopia:
Recent events indicate that Ethiopia is facing a juncture that requires achieving a delicate balance between development ambitions and addressing security and social issues, in order to ensure stability and sustainable development for the country amid a changing regional environment It is assumed that the step of opening the Ethiopian Dam at this time will put the files of negotiation and regional stability to the test, and calls on all parties to seek solutions that achieve common interests and avoid resorting to escalation, in order to ensure that the rights of Egypt and Sudan in the Nile waters are not harmed, and to reach a formula that achieves security and stability for all peoples of the region.
2- Sudan:
Sudan has witnessed a sharp deterioration in the situation in Sudan, as the armed conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Militias has expanded, which has led to an escalation of violence in several areas, such as Darfur and Kordofan, with the continued siege of cities, such as El Fasher and Nyala, which has caused a worsening humanitarian crisis, food insecurity and the spread of diseases, under these circumstances, the “Establishment” coalition announced, on July 26, the formation of a parallel government called the “Transitional Peace Government” headed by a presidential council and a prime minister, which deepened the division, these developments have been accompanied by continued international attempts at mediation and increasing threats to the humanitarian and economic conditions, which have negatively affected the lives of millions of Sudanese, but the continuation of clashes is pushing Sudan to the brink of the humanitarian and political abyss.
3- Somalia:
In light of the divergent events of July between security and political challenges and growing opportunities for international cooperation, it is clear that Somalia continues to embark on a complex path that requires concerted local and international efforts to achieve stability and development. Closely monitoring developments in Somalia remains essential to understand the dynamics of the region and respond effectively to the challenges and opportunities ahead.
4- Iraq:
The Iraqi scene during July 2025 reflects a complex state of cautious stability and multiple challenges, as political developments show the government’s ability to manage sensitive files, whether in strengthening international relations or in holding negligent officials accountable, despite the persistence of some problems, such as the incident of clashes between the security forces and the Popular Mobilization Forces. Economically, despite the launch of important development projects such as the Gold City and the Dry Gas Unit in Basra, Iraq has been negatively affected by external measures, especially after the imposition of tariffs that affected his business prospects. On the security level, Iraqi intelligence services have continued their efforts to pursue terrorist cells and prevent internal attacks, with the government reaffirming its refusal to turn the country into an arena for regional conflicts. However, environmental and livelihood crises, especially severe drought and electricity, continue to be a real concern that threatens societal stability. Accordingly, Iraq appears to be going through a period of relative cohesion at the political and security levels, but it still faces difficult challenges in the economic and development aspect that require rapid radical solutions.
5- Yemen:
The Yemeni crisis in July 2025 is unfolding as a complex multidimensional impasse, linking internal political dynamics with escalating regional tensions, as the entry of the Houthi group into the fourth phase of the confrontation with Israel represents a strategic escalation that expands the circle of conflict and further complicates the divided political scene, as the separation between various local actors continues to deepen the crises of legitimacy and national representation, but also reflects the Houthis’ desire to strengthen their negotiating position internally and externally, which makes it more difficult to achieve a comprehensive political settlement.
On the economic level, serious challenges emerge with the deterioration of the national currency, the disintegration of the financial system, and measures such as the introduction of a new coin, which exacerbate the financial division and enhance the fragility of the economy, which reflects negatively on the lives of citizens who face a tragic humanitarian reality due to food insecurity, the decline in basic services, and the increasing suffering of the population. In this context, the humanitarian crisis has become a central element that cannot be separated from the political and military dimensions, as it constitutes a multiplier factor that increases the complexity of national and international efforts to restore stability. This necessitates a comprehensive approach that addresses the crisis as an interconnected phenomenon that requires multi-layered responses that balance political, humanitarian, and economic solutions. From an analytical perspective, it can be concluded that the persistence of internal divisions and the complexity of regional interventions perpetuate instability, fueling a cycle of violence fueled by overlapping political and military factors. Therefore, any serious effort to end the crisis requires an internal political consensus that strengthens the unity of state institutions, in addition to the adoption of integrated security approaches that ensure the protection of civilians, the stability of vital ports, and the movement of navigation in the Red Sea.
6- South Sudan:
South Sudan witnessed a significant decline in political and security stability, as tensions escalated between President Salva Kiir and the armed opposition led by Riek Machar, in light of the stalemate in the implementation of the terms of the peace agreement, signed in 2018. On the security level, the situation has worsened with the outbreak of armed clashes on the border with Uganda, which led to casualties on both sides, reflecting the fragility of the military situation and the weakness of regional coordination, and the sudden changes in the army’s leadership have raised questions about the unity of the military institution and its ability to deal with the growing challenges, all of these factors confirm that South Sudan is at a critical crossroads, and that the continuation of this path without radical political solutions and comprehensive consensus could bring the country back into a war.
7- Syria:
It seems that the new Syrian regime, headed by Ahmed al-Shara, is facing increasing pressure to submit to the concessions demanded by Israel in the file of normalization of “Syrian-Israeli” relations, and what happened in the governorate of Sweida is the biggest proof that the sectarian factor has become a very dangerous weapon in the hands of Tel Aviv, which it uses to pressure the Syrian government , and there is no objection that this weapon is the bargaining chip that all regional and international powers will later use to subject Damascus to any compromises or concessions. Economically, things seem to be heading in the right direction, especially after the promising Saudi investments generated by the first Saudi-Syrian Investment Forum for 2025, but this does not negate the fact that Damascus still needs a lot to improve the catastrophic economic and humanitarian situation left by the long years of war.
8- Libya:
Libya witnessed very important developments, which reflected a state of accelerated mobility at the “internal and international” levels, and opened the door to possible shifts in the course of the protracted crisis. The next stage, in addition to parallel regional and international movements, and local deliberations on a draft new roadmap. By the end of July, all eyes are on August 2025, when the draft political map is expected to be presented to the UN Security Council, in a move aimed at strengthening international momentum and ensuring UN support for any future settlement. This announcement is expected to legitimize a new transitional phase, and to test the readiness of the Libyan parties to engage seriously in a process that ends the division and rebuilds state institutions on a consensual basis. In light of this, it seems that what happened in July was nothing but a prelude to a larger political intersection, during August, the results of which will be decisive in defining the contours of the next stage: either towards the establishment of an internationally supported national roadmap, or towards the continuation of the stagnation and the reproduction of chaos in new forms.
9- Lebanon:
The current developments reveal a critical juncture in the Lebanese scene, where the growing international pressure to restrict the proliferation of Hezbollah’s weapons intersects with an internal political and security crisis that is weighing on the country, threatening decisive choices, and between the deliberate American moves that seriously demand the disarmament of Hezbollah according to a clear timetable, and the position of the party committed to its conditions related to a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal. In addition to the conflict of wills on the issue of sovereignty, and in light of President Joseph Aoun’s attempts to consolidate the policy of “no war” and maintain the fragile internal balances, the specter of security escalation remains present due to the continuation of Israeli raids and field movements in the south.
Accordingly, the coming months are expected to witness an increase in international pressure and increasing isolation of Hezbollah at the “financial and diplomatic” levels, while internal attempts may arise to formulate a “pragmatic” settlement that begins with a gradual reduction of the military party’s presence without compromising its political essence, in the hope of reaching broader regional understandings that determine the future of the next phase.
10- Mali:
The recent developments in Mali show the magnitude of the accumulated challenges facing the state from multiple angles, as the escalation of coordinated attacks by jihadist and separatist groups reflects the fragility of the security structure, at a time when the transitional authority is moving towards the consolidation of an authoritarian tendency, through constitutional amendments and an indefinite extension of General Goita’s mandate, which weakens the mechanisms of democratic deliberation and raises concerns at home and abroad. On the other hand, Bamako is trying to restore its political legitimacy through the Peace and Reconciliation Pact, despite the refusal of some actors to participate in it, and there have been international attempts – especially from the United States – to re-engage politically and security in the Malian scene, in the context of renewed geopolitical competition in the Sahel region. Between the dynamics of violence, the re-engineering of power, and the search for national compromises, Mali remains at a crossroads between rebuilding the state or sliding toward further institutional disintegration.
