THE CONFLICT PATH SERIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ISSUE NO 34 July 2024

Introduction:

Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of protracted conflicts; The way in which they interact, their longevity, the behaviour and demands of the perpetrators, the parties’ terms of settlement, the dynamism of which they are characterized, and the intensity of their competition reflect their complexity.

This complexity increases as these conflicts interact with global changes s interests become more overlapping and complex, and the challenges surrounding political settlements increase in order to increase the importance of careful follow-up and analysis of such interactions as to enable us to set the record straight for choosing the most appropriate policies and preparing for the scenarios presented, In this number, together with tracking regional conflicts, we are approaching their internal interlinkages and international and regional interaction.

The thirty four  issue of the Shaf Centre’s monthly Conflict Trail Report highlights the Middle East and Africa arena of conflict States, tracking important issues, highlights and local, regional and international interactions. The report covers the conflict situation in 10 States (Ethiopia, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon and Mali)

Executive Summary

Before we shed light on developments in the situation of conflict in the regions to be dealt with, the situation of conflict in the 10 States of concern is broadly presented before proceeding to the detailed report.

Ethiopia:

The series of rains that fell on Ethiopia, if repeated again, may be in the area of the Renaissance Dam, thus exposing it to collapse, especially since it has begun the fifth filling of the dam, with which huge amounts of water are stored. If cracks occur in the ground resulting from heavy rains, then the consequences will be dire. As for the path of Ethiopian intransigence, the government of Abiy Ahmed still insists on its positions, which are likely to affect the security and sovereignty of other countries. Given the talks that were held between the Somali and Ethiopian sides with Turkish mediation, its future is doomed to failure, if Addis Ababa does not back down from its positions that threaten the unity and stability of Mogadishu.

Sudan:

In light of the escalation of the battles between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, and the attempted assassination of the Sudanese army commander with a drone in eastern Sudan, and the insistence of both parties to resolve the conflict by force, international and regional efforts are accelerating towards resolving the Sudanese crisis; There is an American initiative in mid-August, in addition to intensive contacts between leaders and officials from regional countries towards resolving the crisis, and it is unlikely that these efforts will contribute to reaching an agreement that ends the fighting, especially with the new conditions set by the Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, “Abdel Fattah AlBurhan”; To negotiate with the Rapid Support Forces, following the recent assassination attempt, which he was subjected to, and thus the response of both parties to these talks is an important and decisive step for the country, especially with the deterioration of the security and economic conditions and the worsening of the humanitarian situation; Which may turn the Sudanese crisis into a disaster that leads to the fragmentation and collapse of Sudan.

Somalia:

The local elections held in Puntland state indicate a path to consolidating the foundations of democratic construction; as they aimed to adopt a multi-party political system characterized by independence and peace. Recently, the Somali army, with the support of local militias, advanced against Al-Shabaab elements in some regional states in Somalia. As for Somalia’s foreign relations, they indicate the Somali government’s initiative to strengthen international partnerships and secure support for them at all levels, especially the development and security levels.

Iraq:

There is a noticeable development towards promoting Iraqi economic development, as Iraq strives to build balanced relations with friendly countries within the framework of enhancing regional and international bilateral cooperation, which achieves economic growth, serves the Iraqi people, and meets the basic needs of citizens on the one hand, and on the other hand enhances security and stability through the international agreements concluded by Iraq in the security field, which bear fruit in eliminating terrorist strongholds and securing the borders from smuggling gangs, in an important step to cleanse the country of ISIS and in conjunction with ending the tasks of the international coalition, which achieves more security and stability, and ensures the preservation of the sovereignty of the Iraqi state.

Yemen:

The rapid developments in regional tensions after reaching their peak, with the Houthis beginning the fifth phase of their escalation against Israel, targeting the heart of Tel Aviv for the first time, and the subsequent retaliatory responses to the Israeli attacks on the port of Hodeidah and oil and energy facilities, indicate the complexity of the political and security scene in the Middle East, and the increased risk of a semi-regional war. These complications continue to reflect the expectation of further escalation and possible expansion of the armed conflict between Israel and the Houthis in the coming period, especially after the Houthis threatened to respond to the Israeli bombing of Hodeidah, and after the two parties gained justification and legitimacy to escalate their defensive responses directly under the pretext of self-defense.

South Sudan:

Developments in the scene in South Sudan indicate that there is significant coordination between Ethiopia and South Sudan, whether with regard to Juba’s ratification of the Entebbe Agreement, which is the result of tireless efforts to persuade South Sudan to ratify the agreement; To enter into force, or with regard to the agreement to link the two countries by land; Ethiopia is trying to present itself on the basis of achieving the common interest of all, based on development, defense and intelligence aspects. On the other hand, the political leadership in Juba is carrying out internal reforms; to win a second round of presidential elections in the upcoming elections. At the same time, the security vacuum and instability in some states are likely to deteriorate the situation; which greatly affects the electoral process; which hinders the process of peaceful transfer of power.

Syria:

The situation in Syria remains the same; as the security situation is still unstable, and is even deteriorating with the continuation of the war in Gaza, while the dispute between the regime and the opposition continues, which seems to continue in the coming period; Since the Syrian regime has no desire to make any concessions, and this is evident from the parliamentary elections that were held in mid-July, and there has been no real breakthrough – so far – in the file of “SyrianTurkish” rapprochement, despite the positive statements exchanged between Ankara and Damascus, which confirmed the desire of the leaderships of the two countries to normalize relations between them, the same applies to “Syrian-Arab” relations, which have not witnessed the improvement and change that was hoped for when Syria returned to the Arab League and the Arab openness to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, after years of estrangement.

Libya:

While the political process in Libya is apparently stagnant, a political agreement was concluded in Cairo between the House of Representatives and the Supreme Council of State to end the current crisis by forming a new government and a roadmap. Based on that agreement, the Libyan parliament announced in late July the opening of nominations for the presidency of the new government, and that it will continue to receive nomination applications at its office in Benghazi until August 11. However, that step raises questions about whether it will constitute a breakthrough to end the political stalemate or will it deepen the current division? Especially since it comes after the new disagreements that recently erupted between Mohamed Takala, head of the Supreme Council of State, and Aguila Saleh, regarding a number of issues, including the formation of the government and the management of the state budget.

 Lebanon:

It can be said that most of what is happening in Lebanon confirms that the situation in the country is very dangerous, and there is an awaiting of some international and regional stations, and then the necessary things will be built upon, and this is with regard to the political vacuum. As for the security situation, it can be said that the issue of war has become very serious, and not just a threat, and this is what Netanyahu and Ben Gvir confirmed, and this confirms that Lebanon awaits an unknown fate with no resurrection, and the same applies to the assassination of “Ismail Haniyeh and Fouad Shukr”, which carries strong messages from Tel Aviv to all its “enemies”, these successive events indicate a dangerous escalation and a well-thought-out strategy by Israel, aiming to send clear signals that it is ready to take decisive measures against its opponents in the region.

 Mali:

The Malian scene is still looming over the deteriorating security situation, especially with the renewal of battles between the Azawad movements on the one hand, and the Malian forces and the Russian Wagner Group on the other hand, and the latter being exposed to one of their biggest setbacks in years at the hands of the Azawad in northern Mali, with the Malian army and Wagner acknowledging a

large number of casualties among their ranks and the killing of one of the latter’s leaders. Accordingly, the situation in the north of the country remains tense and far from reaching peaceful solutions, and the current conflict may ignite and turn into a long-term conflict; which may have serious consequences on the security and humanitarian levels in the region .