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The imminent return of Trump could change the calculations of the regional scene… What does Trump’s victory mean for Iran and Israel?
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By: Shaimaa Abdul El Hameed
Researcher in Middle Eastern affairs Unit
Translated by : Layla Ahmed
Researcher assistant in International affairs Unit
Introduction:
After months of intense speculation to know the next President of the United States, the identity of the new president has been determined, and it is the Republican Donald Trump, following his victory in the American presidential elections held on November 5th, beating his Democratic rival Kamala Harris, after he secured 277 electoral votes.
Undoubtedly, this victory means a lot for Middle Eastern issues, which are witnessing a state of intensification and security instability, due to the continuation of the brutal Israeli war on the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, as well as the escalation and mutual strikes between Iran and Israel.
Therefore, a crucial question arises at this time: What does Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States mean for the future of the Gaza war and for Tehran and its proxies?
First; The implications of Trump’s victory on the Gaza war and the Palestinian cause:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his stance on the Gaza war and the escalation with Iran and Hezbollah, has bet on Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency. Therefore, he sought to prolong the war and escalation in the region to embarrass the Biden administration and his vice president, Kamala Harris. He also aimed to thwart any chances of reaching a ceasefire agreement by either imposing new, impossible conditions whenever there was a near resolution of the outstanding issues and reaching an agreement, or by escalating further, pushing Palestinian factions to reject it.[1] This gamble is driven by several reasons, including:
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Trump never recognized the national and political rights of the Palestinian people, and he devised a plan to dissolve the Palestinian cause called the “Deal of the Century” in 2020, which was based on the idea of “economic peace.” The most that Palestinians could obtain in this plan was autonomy for the residents in some areas of the West Bank and Gaza. [2]
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Trump was known during his first presidential term for his bias towards Israel and its settlement and expansion plans, making important decisions in the course of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; among them: moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2017, recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the occupied Syrian Golan Heights in 2019, mediating the Abraham Accords to normalize relations between Tel Aviv and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan in 2020, and recognizing the legitimacy of settlements in the West Bank contrary to international decisions on this matter.[3]
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With the beginning of the war, Trump stated that the October 7, 2023 attack was an attack on humanity itself, and in May 2024, he affirmed his support for Tel Aviv’s right to “continue its war on terrorism.” [4]
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Trump also criticized pro-Palestinian demonstrations, calling for a more aggressive approach to those protests, praising the police’s efforts to forcibly disperse them, and also suggesting the cancellation of student visas for those who hold anti-Semitic or anti-Israel views.[5]
In light of this, it is expected that Trump will continue his hardline approach towards the Palestinian cause and its supporters, and will support Israeli policies regarding the control of the Gaza Strip or the policy of settlement construction and annexation in the West Bank, while working to end the war and ceasefire but with unfair and biased conditions favoring Tel Aviv at the expense of the Palestinians and their dream of establishing an independent state.
This can be inferred from a set of indicators, including: [6]
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Trump stated at the Republican National Convention on July 19 that “it is better for the Israeli hostages to return before I take office, otherwise the price will be steep,” pledging that he “will support Israel’s right to win its war on terrorism, no matter what happens.”
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Among the 20 promises made by the Republican Party in its adopted platform for American voters, the 18th promise was to “expel extremists supporting Hamas and make university campuses safe and patriotic again.”
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The Republican vice-presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, described humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza as “stupid.” Therefore, there is little chance that Trump will provide humanitarian aid to the Palestinians, especially regarding the amounts needed to contribute to the reconstruction of the sector. This is due to his record of punishing the Palestinians by cutting off humanitarian aid to them, which means the Palestinian people will face a new reality that complicates the political, economic, and humanitarian situations.
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Trump stated during an interview published by Time magazine on April 30, 2024, that “he thought the two-state solution might succeed, but now he believes that it will be extremely difficult to achieve.” Therefore, it is expected that Trump will support the extreme annexation and displacement policies pursued by Netanyahu.
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However, Donald Trump and his statements regarding Israel and the war in Gaza overlook some developments that may limit and undermine the new president’s actions, unlike his first term. These include the repercussions of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, such as the growing popular support for the Palestinian cause, which will pose an obstacle to any political project aimed at sidelining it, and the creation of a state of resentment towards Israel due to its brutal violations since the beginning of the war, which will hinder normalizing relations with it. Additionally, there is a global and American public opinion supporting an immediate end to the war.
Secondly, the implications of Trump’s victory for Iran and its regional proxies:
Unlike Israel, Iran bet on the arrival of a Democratic administration to the presidency of the United States, so that it could continue what it started during the current administration of President Joe Biden. Indirect nuclear negotiations between Iran and Washington were resumed, and some political understandings between the two countries took shape, such as the announcement in August 2023 of the release of several American prisoners in Iran in exchange for South Korea ending the freeze on Iranian financial assets there through Qatari mediation.[7]
Therefore, Tehran practiced a policy of restraint and tried not to escalate its attacks indiscriminately against Israel, hoping that this would help in reaching a truce agreement in Gaza, and subsequently help keep the Democrats in power through Kamala Harris’s victory.
But now, after Donald Trump’s victory, Tehran realizes that it will face a more hardline American administration towards it, similar to Trump’s first term, especially after he pledged to expand sanctions on Iran and put an end to Iranian nuclear threats. Therefore, the following determinants are expected to shape US-Iranian relations in the upcoming period:
1- Increasing American-Iranian tensions; after a period of relative calm in the relations between the two countries during the Biden administration, it seems that the relations between Washington and Tehran will witness an increase in tension during Trump’s presidency. This is based on the fact that Iran was trying to buy time and calm down until the identity of the next American president was known. However, after the Republican Trump won, contrary to its wishes, it may lean towards escalating its regional orientations in the coming period.
Therefore, it is expected that Iran will increase its support for its proxies and give them more freedom in the region to achieve two main objectives: escalating the level of threats against American interests in the region, and sending an indirect message to the United States and its Western allies that “if they want a stable Middle East, it cannot be achieved without Iran.” [8]
2- Attempting to undermine Iran’s regional influence; the Trump administration is expected to escalate and increase pressure on Iran’s proxies in the region, especially Hezbollah, to ensure Israel’s security and the return of northern residents, the Houthis to stop their threats to maritime navigation and trade in the Red Sea, and the Tehran-aligned militias in Syria and Iraq to halt their attacks on American bases and forces in the region.
Attempting to undermine Iran’s regional influence; it is expected that the Trump administration will escalate and increase pressure on Iran’s proxies in the region, especially Hezbollah, to ensure Israel’s security and the return of northern residents, the Houthis to stop their threats to maritime navigation and trade in the Red Sea, and the Tehran-aligned militias in Syria and Iraq to halt their attacks on American bases and forces in the region.
In addition to the possibility of pressuring regional countries to prevent the development of their relations with Tehran, and obstructing the policy of good neighborliness that Iran has recently adopted, especially with the Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia after the agreement to restore diplomatic relations mediated by Beijing in March 2023.
Additionally, there is the possibility of Trump supporting the assassination policy followed by Israel concerning the senior leaders of the Iranian resistance axis in the region, especially since he was the first to implement it by assassinating the mastermind behind Iran’s regional project, Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, in 2020.
3- Eliminating hopes of reviving the nuclear deal; it seems that Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States means the fading chances of reviving nuclear negotiations, as:
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During his first term, Trump adopted a more resolute and stringent policy towards Iran’s nuclear program, as he unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018 and reinstated sanctions on Tehran in what was known as the maximum pressure policy.
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He expressed openness to the idea of striking Iranian nuclear facilities, as he stated last October that “Israel should strike the nuclear weapons first, and deal with the rest later.” [9]