Articles
From Climate Change to Violent Extremism (Pathways of Interaction in the Sahel and Sahara)
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By: Aya Ashraf
Assistant Researcher, Terrorism and Extremism Program
The Sahel and Sahara region is considered the epicenter of the most violent tensions and disturbances on the African continent. It is a convergence point for many intertwined security challenges, starting with ethnic and racial differences, porous borders, organized crime, smuggling, human trafficking, drug and arms trafficking, in addition to political and economic fragility, and culminating in the escalating spread of extremist terrorist activity, especially recently. These challenges have been compounded by the most significant threat facing humanity as a whole: the violent change in climatic phenomena. The phenomena of drought, desertification, and the scarcity of natural resources have exacerbated the suffering of the people of this region, creating a fertile environment for the growth of extremist groups that exploit these conditions to expand their influence in the Sahel and Sahara region and, from there, to the entire African continent.
Accordingly, this report sheds light on the relationship between the severe climate change experienced by the African Sahel and Sahara region and the expansion of terrorist activity in the region by discussing the security dimension of the first variable, namely climate change, and analyzing the dialectic of the relationship between it and terrorist spread.
The Security Dimensions of Climate Change
Since the turn of the millennium, nations worldwide have confronted a growing array of unconventional threats that pose significant risks to global security. Among the most pressing of these threats is the severe alteration of climate patterns. The repercussions of climate change extend far beyond environmental, developmental, and economic spheres, infiltrating the realm of security in unprecedented ways. Consequently, the international community has been compelled to broaden its understanding of national security to encompass the challenges posed by a changing climate. This has led to the emergence of a new concept: “climate security.” ([1])
Climate security seeks to address the security implications of climate change and to comprehend the complex relationship between climate change and other security threats, particularly terrorism and extremism. Empirical evidence has consistently shown a positive correlation between extreme climate events and the proliferation of terrorist activities, especially in regions marked by political and security fragility. The United Nations Secretary-General, “António Guterres” , underscored this connection in 2021, asserting that extreme weather events exacerbate the likelihood and scale of terrorist acts. ([2])
The Sahel and Sahara region serves as a prime example of this phenomenon. The region’s extreme vulnerability to climate change, coupled with its political and economic fragility, has created a fertile ground for the expansion of terrorist groups. Climate-induced challenges such as drought, water scarcity, and resource competition have intensified conflicts, fueled mass migration, and destabilized communities, thereby providing opportunities for extremist organizations to exploit.
Despite contributing a mere 4% to global greenhouse gas emissions, as indicated by the ND-GAIN Index, the African continent, particularly the Sahel and Sahara regions, bears the brunt of the severe impacts of climate change. These regions face a disproportionate burden of climate-related disasters, threatening both their environmental and security equilibrium.
The most prominent consequences include([3]):
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Erratic rainfall patterns: Leading to severe droughts, desertification, and unexpected floods with devastating consequences.
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Rising temperatures: The region has experienced a significant increase in temperature, with the Sahel and Sahara ranking among the hottest regions globally. This is directly linked to rising greenhouse gas emissions and global warming.
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Water scarcity: Millions of people in the Sahel and Sahara are grappling with water scarcity due to prolonged droughts.
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Climate-induced displacement: Extreme weather events are forcing large-scale population displacement as people flee their homes in search of safer, more climate-resilient areas.
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Food insecurity: Climate change is severely impacting agriculture and livestock, leading to widespread food shortages and malnutrition, especially in regions like the Lake Chad Basin.
These climate-induced challenges have far-reaching socioeconomic consequences. The already fragile economies of Sahel and Sahara countries are being further strained. According to UN reports, the region’s GDP is projected to decline by 20% by 2050 if urgent action is not taken. This decline is expected to exacerbate poverty, inequality, and political instability. ([4])
The Climate-Terrorism Nexus
Against this backdrop, terrorist groups and organizations have firmly established themselves in the political, social, and security landscape of the Sahel and Sahara region. They have exploited the despair of the region’s populations and the inability of governments to meet basic needs and provide protection against the harsh impacts of climate change. This is evident in several ways:
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Lake Chad Basin: Groups like “Boko Haram”, “Al-Qaeda”, and “ISIS” have capitalized on the severe drought and the subsequent water and food crises, as well as displacement and migration, to recruit civilians into their ranks. They have filled the void left by ineffective governments in managing resource conflicts and have presented themselves as alternatives, expanding their influence in countries like Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad. A study by the US Institute of Peace in 2011 attributed the rise of “Boko Haram” in Nigeria partly to the severe climate changes the country experienced, leading to mass migration and food insecurity, conditions that “Mohammed Marwy” exploited to expand the group’s reach. ([5])
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Liptako-Gourma region: “Al-Qaeda” and “ISIS” have exploited the competition for resources between herders and farmers, exacerbated by drought and desertification, to increase their influence and geographical reach. They have recruited locals by providing essential services that the state has failed to deliver. ([6])
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Somalia: “Al-Shabaab” has exploited severe droughts, food insecurity, and poverty to tighten its grip on controlled areas, blocking humanitarian aid and recruiting youth. .([7])
The UN Security Council, in Resolution 2349 of 2017, condemned terrorist groups for exploiting climate change to expand their influence in the Sahel region, particularly the Lake Chad Basin. The resolution recognized the serious security risks posed by environmental degradation in fragile regions and called for increased support to governments in the Sahel to address climate change and prevent terrorist groups from exploiting crises .([8])
Conclusions and Recommendations
Based on the preceding analysis, several key conclusions can be drawn:
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Climate change as a primary driver of terrorism: The expansion of terrorist activities, particularly in the Sahel and Sahara, is a direct and severe consequence of climate change. The international community’s failure to adequately address this issue has exacerbated the problem, forcing nations to confront the dire consequences of climate-induced security threats.
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Climate change as a catalyst, not a sole cause: While climate change is a significant factor in the rise of terrorism, it is not the sole cause. Other factors such as political instability, weak governance, and socioeconomic challenges also contribute to the problem.
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Terrorist groups exploiting climate-induced vulnerabilities: Terrorist organizations exploit the vulnerabilities created by climate change, such as water scarcity, food insecurity, and displacement, to present themselves as alternatives to failed states. They recruit from marginalized populations and gain legitimacy by providing essential services.
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A complex dynamic: The relationship between climate change and terrorism is complex and dynamic, with each influencing the other. This complexity makes it challenging to develop effective strategies to counter this threat, especially in the context of geopolitical rivalries.
Based on these conclusions, the following recommendations are proposed:
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Depoliticize climate change: Climate change issues should be separated from geopolitical rivalries to ensure effective global cooperation.
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International agreement: A comprehensive international agreement under the UN framework is needed to recognize climate change as a security threat and promote climate justice, especially for vulnerable regions like the Sahel and Sahara.
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Strengthen climate security: The concept of climate security should be integrated into the UN Security Council’s mandate. Climate diplomacy and environmental peacebuilding should be prioritized to address complex challenges and provide expertise to vulnerable countries.
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Protect climate refugees: International protection mechanisms should be strengthened to safeguard climate refugees and prevent their recruitment by terrorist groups.
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Strengthen state capacity: Efforts should be made to enhance the legitimacy and capacity of governments in the Sahel and Sahara to address the root causes of instability, including climate change.
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Invest in climate adaptation: Increased investment in weather monitoring and climate adaptation measures is crucial to help African countries build resilience to climate change.