Research assistant in the International Affairs Unit
Trump and Zelensky held an altercation-filled meeting in the Oval Office at the White House on February 28, 2025, they discussed the possibility of stopping the Russian-Ukrainian war, and Zelensky was supposed to sign the minerals agreement with the American side in exchange for a ceasefire and a peace process with Russia, which did not happen as the two leaders were not on the same page about the deal, which turned into a verbal altercation between the two sides in an unprecedented scene that exceeded diplomatic norms, and this meeting clarified the importance of diplomacy in international relations to manage and conduct official meetings, as the Joint press conference cancelled and Zelensky left the White House without signing the agreement on rare earth elements that was expected to be signed during the meeting.
In the following, the most prominent statements of the two presidents and the reaction about this meeting can be reviewed, with moving to analytical points to understand the position of the Ukrainian and American sides, which brought them to this dispute, and then moving to the scenarios expected to occur in the coming days.
The meeting outcomes:
Trump accused the Ukrainian president of “gambling with World War III,” adding, “If we hadn’t given you military equipment, this war would have been over in two weeks”, “Now you’re not in a very good position, you have put yourself in a very bad position, you don’t have the cards at the moment, with us you have cards, you’re gambling with the lives of millions of people,” he said, “I’ve empowered you to be a tough guy, and I don’t think you’d be a tough guy without the United States.”
“You’re either going to make a deal or we’re out, and if we go out, I don’t think it’s going to be nice, and you’ll find out, but once we sign the deal, you’re in a much better position”.[1]
Zelenskiy said he wanted security guarantees to stop the war as they signed a deal with Putin, but he violated the ceasefire, he added “We want to stop the war, but the negotiations should be between the parties to the war, not between Russia and the United States.”
Different reactions after the meeting: –
US statements:
Trump said that Zelensky is not ready for peace and did not respect the Oval Office, adding in a post on his account on the “Truth Social” platform that the Ukrainian president can return to the White House when he is ready for peace.
US Secretary of State Rubio said, “Zelensky should apologize after the verbal altercation with President Trump at the White House.”[2]
Ukrainian statements:
Zelensky thanked the United States and Trump in a post on “X” and added: “Ukraine needs just and lasting peace, and we are working exactly for that.”, and added, “It was very important to listen to Ukraine and not forget it,”, “I respect Trump and I do not owe him an apology and no one wants to end the war more than us,” while Ukrainian Prime Minister Denish Shmigal confirmed through the same platform “President Zelensky was right; a ceasefire without guarantees would lead to a Russian occupation of the entire European continent.”
Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Sersky stressed that his forces stand by President Volodymyr Zelensky, and said that “the armed forces are with Ukraine, with the people and with the commander-in-chief,” adding, “Our strength is in our unity.”
Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the Ukrainian president’s office, said that “President Zelensky’s position is flawless, supported by arguments and absolutely correct.”[3]
Russian statements:
Russia’s comments came as a delight in the altercation between Trump and Zelensky, with Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, saying Zelensky “received a strong slap from Trump in the White House.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: “How Trump and Vance held back from hitting that scumbag is a miracle of restraint.”
Russian Foreign Ministry said “Zelensky’s visit to Washington was a complete failure and it is clear that he is obsessed with continuing the conflict”.
European reactions:
The European countries issued several statements about the meeting, in which they declared their full support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, and the following can be presented as the most prominent reactions about the meeting:
French President Emmanuel Macron said that “Russia is the aggressor, that Ukrainians are the aggressed people, and we must thank all those who have helped and respect those who have been fighting since the beginning, because they are fighting for their dignity, their independence, their children and the security of Europe. These are simple things, but they’re good to remember at times like these, that’s all,” and stressed that France was right to help Ukraine and punish Russia 3 years ago and will continue to do so.[4]
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he maintained his unwavering support for Ukraine, and was doing his best to find a way forward towards a lasting peace based on sovereignty and security for Ukraine, he also hosted a meeting between the European leaders Sunday 3 Mar, 2025, including President Zelensky.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, “Ukraine can rely on Germany and Europe,” while the head of the Christian Democratic Union party, the winner of the German elections, Friedrich Merz, said that “We stand with Ukraine in good and in testing times. We must never confuse aggressor and victim in this terrible war.[5]
Finland, Poland, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Sweden, Belgium, Denmark, Latvia and the Czech Republic, represented by their respective prime ministers, and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nosida declared their full support for Zelensky and the Ukrainian people in their struggle against Russian aggression for a lasting and just peace.[6]
Addressing Zelensky, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “Your dignity honors the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Be strong, be brave, be fearless. “We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.”
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaya Kalas said “Ukraine is Europe, we stand by Ukraine”, “We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back against the aggressor, “Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge”.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s comments were somewhat neutral, saying “A summit without delay is needed between the United States, European states and their allies to talk frankly about how we intend to tackle today’s major challenges, starting with Ukraine, which together we have defended in recent years,”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán backed Trump and said “Strong men make peace; weak men make war. Today President Donald Trump stood bravely for peace,” he wrote on X. “Even if it was difficult for many to digest. Thank you, Mr. President”.
And from outside the European continent:
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declared his support for Ukraine and wrote on X “Russia illegally and unjustifiably invaded Ukraine. For three years now, Ukrainians have fought with courage and resilience, their fight for democracy, freedom, and sovereignty is a fight that matters to us all”.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said “We will continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes, because this is the struggle of a democratic nation versus an authoritarian regime led by Vladimir Putin, who clearly has imperialistic designs, not just on Ukraine, but throughout that region.”[7]
The disagreement that occurred between Trump and Zelensky can be understood in the following analytical points:
First: The mineral agreement is unfair and without guarantees, as Donald Trump wants to make Ukraine sign the minerals agreement, which enables Washington to acquire 50% of Kyiv minerals in order to compensate for aids given by former President of U.S. Joe Biden to Ukraine, and this agreement comes without clear guarantees for Ukraine to guarantee that such an agreement will not be violated by the Russian side in the future, as Trump’s presence in power is not enough to ensure that, Ukraine needs a guarantee that exceeds persons, and this is what Trump marginalizes as he puts himself as a guarantee for the continuation of the peace talks with Russia, in other words Zelensky did not receive security pledges from the United States in exchange for the mineral agreement as he had hoped, as the signing of an agreement without security guarantees or peacekeeping forces in Ukraine opens the door for Russia to wage war again when it deems it appropriate in the future, so It seemed that the United States wanted to take minerals to recover their money and then leave Ukraine to Russia to do whatever it wants by distancing itself from conflicts amid the policies of American isolation and Trumpism policies of “America First”.
Second: Trump is trying to formulate a new international order based on pressure and exploitation, as Trump believes that the use of force and pressure is the most successful approach in the peacemaking process, but Zelensky’s position came as a strong blow to this Trumpian approach, as he noted to Trump that the interest of the state in the short and long term must be taken into account, and that the peace process must logically serves the interest of both parties at least and not one party, especially since the affected party in the minerals agreement is the aggressed state according to the Ukrainian and French presidents, so in the peacemaking process, the mediator has to be neutral, take into account the rights of the parties and their point of view, and then try bring about approaches between them.
Third: Trump’s vision for peace achieves a crushing Russian victory, and Ukraine is trying to avoid that, as it found itself in the position of a loser whether it concluded the minerals agreement with Trump or not, as it will not recover the territories controlled by Russian forces, will not join NATO, and will give the U.S. 50% of its minerals, however, it will not take guarantees that the Russian side will abide by the treaty, so Zelensky’s position was logical to some extent, as the Russian side wins in In both cases, in addition it is expected that Putin will not hesitate to continue the war, given the enormous military arsenal possessed by his country, as it has the most powerful military capabilities in the world after the United States of America, in exchange for Ukraine, which is facing American pressure to cut off its military supply, on which it has been almost completely dependent since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022.
Fourth: Ukraine does not want to be up for grabs in the negotiation process, Zelensky wanted to wake up European countries in the verbal altercation with Trump and his vice president, J.D. Vance, and to send indirect messages to European countries that Ukraine war with Russia is still ongoing, emphasizing that it will only end with rational conditions and guarantees that can be accepted by the Ukrainian side, not on terms dictated by Trump and ratified by Kyiv without review, so Zelensky’s position came as a blow to Trump’s approach, which took a unilateral view in this meeting and in making the peace process. This resulted in European statements in support of Ukraine, as they felt the gravity of the situation and that they should participate more effectively in this fateful phase that Ukraine is going through.
Fifth: Trump does not want an argument, but wants to dictate to others what to do, which was not welcomed by Zelensky, as he did not show flexibility in responding to Trump, so the meeting turned into an arena of verbal duel between Trump and J.D. Vance on the one hand and Zelensky on the other, as they sought to impose their vision on Zelensky for settling the war in a position that exceeded diplomatic norms, most likely that the US side is taking advantage of the weakness of Ukraine’s current position, given what estimates indicate that Ukraine will suffer If you think about continuing the war without the United States.
Future scenarios: –
The first scenario, European awakening and independence:
It is expected that European countries will change their approach in dealing with the Russian-Ukrainian war, as European leaders met in London Sunday, the second of March 2025, and they discussed the Russian-Ukrainian war, the talks were serious, especially after the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, and it is possible that Europe will look to defend its national security away from dependence on the United States, and to do not to leave determining the fate of an entire continent in the hands of Washington, and this scenario has been raised repeatedly, but without taking serious steps towards it due to the lack of the European leaders capable of taking the initiative for such a bold step, even if Macron seemed to represent the role of this leader, but it is not clear that he has full confidence in taking such a step that could lead to Europe’s involvement in a direct war with the Russian side, and another reason that undermines this scenario is the economic problems that the European continent suffers from, especially the energy crises that make the countries of Europe realistic and do not want to engage with the Russian side in a direct war without the help of Europe’s main ally since World War II, the United States of America, whose absence in a future Russian-European conflict is likely to constitute a possible European suffering in front of a competitor with military power and ideal strategic depth to confront an entire continent.
The second scenario, convergence of views and understanding:
The second scenario is that, there will be convergence in the American and Ukrainian views with European mediation that press for securing American security guarantees to deter any future conflict between Russia and Ukraine and to protect Ukraine if that happens, and this is Ukraine only condition at that phase, but Trump fears that Ukraine will be given security guarantees that may force the United States to engage in future wars for Ukraine if Russia thinks of returning to fighting again, he also believe that the European side is the one who must commit to protecting European national security not Washington, so Trump does not support the idea of engaging in conflicts that do not concern U.S. national security, and this was a point of disagreement between Trump, Biden and European countries about the percentage of European contributions in NATO’s defence budget, which Trump sees as very low in exchange for what the United States offers to the alliance, which is primarily in the European interest. Trump has threatened more than once with the possibility of withdrawing from the alliance if the European side does not bear the alliance’s financial burdens and raise the percentage of contribution to its defense capabilities to 5% of the national income of member states, so it is possible that Trump’s giving Zelensky security guarantees will not be that easy, as it contradicts Trump’s isolationist vision.
The third scenario, bringing new allies and mediators:
The scenario of searching for new mediators instead of the United States and bringing China and Turkey to make peace, as the European countries need a strong economic partner in light of Washington’s intention to impose exorbitant tariffs on the EU, so they may turn to cooperate with Beijing and Ankara and use them to make the peace process in the Russian-Ukrainian war as they are close allies of Russia and have the cards of pressure and political, economic and military ability to make the peace process, and this will be a big pressure card on the United States and a challenge that could fragment US-European relations, as in this case it will be announced to officially dispense with the U.S. vision for peacemaking in Ukraine, but in this case Turkey may return to its demands to join the European Union in exchange for agreeing to engage in settling the war between Moscow and Kyiv, and this is considered as radical changes and shifts in the world order whose choices and ways of action have been confused by Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
In conclusion,
It is not possible to favor any scenario over the other because this is due to the extent to which Europe receives the current situation, however it is expected that the United States will stop its aid to Ukraine completely, and in order for an agreement to occur under the auspices of the Trumpian point of view, Ukraine must make many concessions, including accepting to end the war based on the current field reality, in which Russia controls Ukrainian territory, and concluding a mineral agreement with the United States without major security guarantees, in addition to preventing it from joining NATO. The guarantor is the person of Donald Trump himself, whom Ukraine does not see as sufficient, so it is expected that the pace of events will accelerate in the coming period, and the peace process will be postponed until there is a convergence of views between Zelensky and Trump in the negotiation track, in which the Ukrainian side wants to contain security guarantees to end the war, and this is the most important Ukrainian condition.
References:
[1] Trump officials slam Zelenskyy, as Western leaders rally around Ukraine, AL JAZEERA English, 1 Mar 2025
