The prospect of a minerals deal was first proposed by Zelensky last year as a way to offer the US a tangible reason to continue supporting Ukraine. The talks have reached the last stages with a potential signing of the deal on Friday. The United States and Ukraine are trying to sign out a natural resources agreement that would give Washington access to Kyiv’s untapped mineral riches in exchange for investments and what Ukraine hopes would be concrete security guarantees. The deal essentially consists of two parts; A joint fund and long-term and robust security guarantees that would help deter Russia from ever attacking again.
Agreement details
The draft agreement seeks the establishment of a “reconstruction investment fund” that would be jointly managed by the American and Ukrainian governments. For instance, the money would be managed on “equal terms” by Washington and Kyiv. According to the deal, the fund will invest in Ukrainian enterprises after receiving 50% of future earnings from state-owned oil, gas, and mineral resources. Zelensky recognized the fund but said it was too early to talk about money. The US would hold the maximum amount of the fund permitted by US law, but not necessarily all of it.
In recent weeks, there has been a perceived widening gap between Trump and Zelensky, partly due to disagreements over the conditions of a mining deal. According to media sources, the US has reportedly withdrawn its first demand for $500 billion (£395 billion) in natural wealth, which the Ukrainian president had previously refused. Consequently, The deal’s provisions are getting much better for Ukraine now. Moreover, Trump claimed that he intended to “get that money back” through a contract after the US gave Ukraine between $300 billion (£237 billion) and $350 billion (£276 billion) in aid. However, according to the German think tank Kiel Institute, the United States has given Ukraine $119 billion in aid.[1]
On the other hand, Zelensky has been pushing for a deal to include a firm security guarantee from the US. However, Ukraine’s leader stated that no such assurance had been given. He then added that he is willing to find a Nato path or something similar if Trump did not provide the assurances he desired as nothing will work and there won’t be a ceasefire if there is no security assurances.
Therefore, Unless Zelensky and Trump “agree on security guarantees” and determine how to “tie this preliminary agreement” to a US security guarantee, Ukraine will not sign the pact.[2]
Again and again, Trump declared that the United States would not pay “beyond… very much” for security guarantees, responsibility for this fell to Europe he added. However, he went on to say that “automatic security” would be provided by American workers on Ukrainian territory. Moreover, He insisted on that Ukraine would get “the right to fight on” in return for access to its minerals and that the US would continue to supply equipment and weapons until the US have a deal with Russia. Although Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Kremlin would not entertain the possibility, the US president has stated that Russia is open to receiving European peacekeepers in Ukraine.[3]
The agreement has been finalized by the US and Ukraine, and the Ukrainian government will approve its signing. In order to find out if the United States will continue to support Ukraine, Zelensky said he would be “very direct” with Trump. Trump has stated that he will sign the deal with Zelensky on Friday in Washington.[4]
Ukraine’s mineral resources
The United States is seeking $500 billion worth of natural resources from Ukraine in a contested deal in exchange for the military aid provided throughout Russia’s invasion of the country, which may include some of the country’s large titanium, lithium and graphite reserves. The strategic importance of Ukraine’s critical materials cannot be overstated. These resources are crucial for industries such as defense, high-tech, aerospace, and green energy. Global demand for essential minerals has grown rapidly, driven by the shift towards electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies. Ukraine’s ability to provide these minerals is vital for the US as it aims to diversify its supply chains and lessen reliance on non-democratic countries like China, Russia, Iran, and other non-democratic regimes.[5]
Kyiv estimates that about 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials” are in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian Geological Survey official agency, the country is “one of the top five leading countries” for the supply of graphite, with approximately 19 million tonnes of known reserves. Batteries for electric cars are made of graphite. Seven percent of Europe’s supply of titanium, a lightweight metal used in everything from power plants to aeroplanes, comes from Ukraine. A third of all lithium deposits in Europe, which are essential to modern batteries, are found there as well. The elements beryllium and uranium, which are essential for nuclear weapons and reactors, are also found in Ukraine. Deposits of copper, lead, zinc, silver, nickel, cobalt and manganese are also significant. Additionally, Ukraine possesses substantial rare earth metal deposits. These 17 components are used to make electronics, wind turbines, weapons, and other essential items for the modern world.[6]
Some of the mineral deposits, however, have been seized by Russia. Meanwhile, Russian soldiers, who have already taken control of a fifth of Ukraine, including rare earth reserves, are currently less than 4 miles from the Shevchenko lithium deposit and are moving towards it from three separate directions.
Due to its application in a wide range of sectors and technologies, including electric vehicles and cell phones, lithium is a highly sought-after worldwide resource. According to U.S. official estimates, Russia has twice as many reserves than Ukraine, which have roughly 500,000 tonnes. Donetsk, where Shevchenko is based, is one of four Ukrainian districts that Moscow has annexed and declared its own, a move that Kyiv and Western nations contend is illegal. It is located at a depth that would permit commercial mining and is one of Ukraine’s largest lithium resources.
Indeed, it’s conceivable that the Russians will arrive in this region in the upcoming weeks given the current fighting tempo. Therefore, capturing Ukraine’s natural wealth was undoubtedly one of Russia’s strategic objectives even though it was not the primary war objective.[7]
American business perspective
Despite calling the agreement a “deal on rare earths,” Donald Trump has not made it clear which minerals he wants from Ukraine. Notably, lithium, graphite, and titanium are found in far larger quantities elsewhere, including the United States. The part China will play in Trump’s demands, however, is much more certain.
China is the world’s largest manufacturer and processes more rare earth elements (REEs) than any other nation; estimates place its resources at between 50% and 75% of the world’s total supply. Consequently, the United States and Europe are working to reduce their reliance on Beijing.
As Trump got ready to take office again in December, China prohibited the export of some rare earth elements to the United States. It had previously limited US mineral exports under Joe Biden’s presidency. The Trump administration responded by declaring 10% tariffs on all imports from China on February 1.
Critical minerals and rare earth elements (REEs) are essential to the global green energy transition, regardless of the trade war with China. The World Meteorological Organization estimates that we will require three times as much copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt to reach net-zero ambitions by 2030. That’s an additional 50 lithium, 60 nickel, and 17 cobalt mines worldwide.[8]
Meanwhile, Trump argued that he’s trying to get the money back, referring to the aid provided to Ukraine under the previous administration. In return for the aid it has already given Kyiv, the US first requested a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s rare earths and other minerals. Zelensky, however, disagreed, claiming that accepting it would be equivalent to “selling” his nation. Zelensky was later referred to by Trump as “a dictator.[9]
Nevertheless, Donald Trump has promised his supporters a speedy end to the war in Ukraine. The €114 billion in aid, or around 0.5% of the US GDP, that the US has given to Ukraine, including €64 billion in military supplies, has been paid for by American taxpayers. However, as usual, negotiating peace agreements frequently takes years. Furthermore, it’s likely that Trump has American businesses chatting to him about the potential benefits of Ukraine’s rare minerals for his own nation’s defense and technological sectors. Consequently, the minerals deal is “Trump’s method of showing his supporters that he can achieve quick wins.[10]
What does Ukraine want from the deal?
In the three years since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Trump has demanded compensation for the US aid paid to Ukraine under the administration of former US president Joe Biden. According to the Kiel Institute, a German economic research organization, the US leader had demanded $500 billion in compensation, which is around four times the $120 billion Washington had already paid Ukraine. Zelensky denied the demand, stating that he would not approve a deal that would be repaid by “ten generations” of Ukrainians. Since then, a Kyiv-based source familiar with the agreement has informed AFP that this demand was removed from the most recent version of the agreement.
On the other hand, Ukraine insists that any agreement must have strong, long-term security guarantees that would help prevent another Russian strike. The agreement has not yet specified how the US would guarantee Ukraine’s security. As part of his five-point Victory Plan, Zelensky had previously suggested in October of last year that access to Ukrainian natural resources could be exchanged for security pledges.
In the end, Ukraine wants to join NATO. However, Washington has put that option—a red line for the Kremlin—on hold for the time being. In the case of a ceasefire, Ukraine has also pushed for the deployment of foreign peacekeeping forces. However, while European nations disagree on the matter, the United States has rejected this choice. Moreover, There is a general clause that says America will invest in a stable and prosperous sovereign Ukraine as there were mentions of “lasting peace” and of US support for “security guarantees”.[11]
Russia’s stance on the deal
Trump’s return to the White House has resulted in a major shift in policy towards Russia. There has been a significant change in Trump’s approach to Russia since his return to the White House. Earlier this month, US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the conflict in Ukraine, but neither Kyiv nor any of its European allies were invited.
Trump stated that he was “trying to do some economic development deals” with Moscow, citing its “massive rare earth” riches, and that he was in “serious discussions” with Russia about ending the war. In order to extract rare earth mineral reserves in Russia and some areas of Russian-occupied Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow is willing to collaborate with American businesses as Russia is one of the leading countries when it comes to rare metal reserves. He then added that they are also keen to attract foreign partners in the new territories.[12]
For instance, The US offer has been referred regarded as “colonial” by some analysts, while Kyiv is open to cooperative resource exploration. Only 15% of Ukraine’s 20,000+ mineral resources, which include 116 different types, were being actively explored at the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, according to the World Economic Forum.
For example, the nation still has a sizable amount of undeveloped lithium reserves. The same is true for rare earth resources, which are known to exist but have not yet been mined due to a lack of funding. The mineral resources are very costly and complex to develop. Therefore, Ukraine’s economy will greatly benefit if it can draw in US investors to assist in the development of its natural wealth.[13]
Conclusion
To conclude, although in the very start, the deal was perceived as a colonial agreement, the latest changes to the deal make it far more agreeable for Ukrainians. It has evolved into a more balanced deal.
Moreover, the pending agreement is a sign that Trump is becoming more realistic about the fact that Putin keeps rejecting the ceasefire and he is not willing to give peace to Ukraine anytime soon. Notably, The latest version contains explicit mentions of security, and how the contributions to the fund will be aimed at achieving security which was the number one priority to Ukraine.
At the same time, the agreement still demands far more of Ukraine than it does of the US, which is not directly obliged to ensure Ukrainian freedom, sovereignty or security in any way. But while the deal itself barely commits the US to anything, it has effectively moved Ukraine to the forefront table for peace talks.
References:
[1] Gregory, I. a. &. J. (2025, February 26). Ukraine minerals deal: What we know so far. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn527pz54neo
[2] What we know so far about the US-Ukraine minerals deal. (2025, February 26). France24. https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250226-what-we-know-so-far-about-us-ukraine-minerals-deal
[3] Gregory, I. a. &. J. (2025, February 26). Ukraine minerals deal: What we know so far. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn527pz54neo
[4] Zurcher, A. a. J. W. J. L. &. A. (2025, February 26). Ukraine PM says minerals deal agreed with US. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c337461n3xlo
[5] NATO ENSEC COE. (2024, December 10). Ukraine’s resources. Critical raw materials – NATO ENSEC COE. https://www.enseccoe.org/publications/ukraines-resources/
[6] Abdurasulov, A. (2025, February 26). What minerals does Ukraine have and what are they used for?https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20le8jn282o
[7] Russian forces advance on Ukraine’s critical minerals as Trump talks of a deal. (2025, February 19). Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-advances-ukraines-critical-minerals-trump-talks-deal-2025-02-19/
[8] Sky News. (2025, February 26). What minerals does Ukraine have – and why does Donald Trump want them?https://news.sky.com/story/what-minerals-does-ukraine-have-and-why-does-donald-trump-want-them-13316629
[9] What we do and don’t know about Trump’s ‘very big deal’ on Ukraine’s mineral resources. (2025, February 6). CNN.
[10] Wallace, N., & Wallace, N. (2025, February 27). Why Ukrainians are warming-up to Donald Trump’s minerals deal. Euractiv. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/why-ukrainians-are-warming-up-to-donald-trumps-minerals-deal/
[11] What we know so far about the US-Ukraine minerals deal. (2025, February 26). France24. https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250226-what-we-know-so-far-about-us-ukraine-minerals-deal
[12] What we do and don’t know about Trump’s ‘very big deal’ on Ukraine’s mineral resources. (2025, February 6). CNN.
[13] Abdurasulov, A. (2025, February 26). What minerals does Ukraine have and what are they used for?https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20le8jn282o
