Donald Trump’s return to the White House after his victory in the U.S. presidential election on November 6, 2024, marks a critical juncture in Saudi-American relations, especially in the context of the complex regional and international circumstances that Middle East is currently facing. This event was welcomed by the Saudi leadership, with both King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressing optimism about the future of the strategic partnership between the two nations. [1]، Trump’s previous presidency witnessed an intensification of cooperation between Riyadh and Washington across security and economic sectors. Notably, during his first term, Trump chose Riyadh as the first stop on his overseas visit in 2017. It is anticipated that he will repeat this by making Riyadh one of the key destinations in his second term. During this period, the United States offered substantial support to Saudi Arabia in addressing the growing security challenges, particularly the rising Iranian influence in the region. U.S. policies at the time reflected a deep alignment with Saudi aspirations to achieve regional stability, further strengthening this traditional alliance. With Trump’s return, questions arise about how his new administration will impact regional equations and Saudi efforts toward economic and social development, as outlined in the Vision 2030 plan, as well as the anticipated role of the U.S. in supporting regional stability amid current geopolitical challenges.
Firstly: Economic Cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the Trump Administration
Trump’s return to the presidency opens new prospects for economic cooperation between Saudi Arabia and his administration, particularly in sectors that are vital to the Saudi economy. His previous presidency was marked by policies supporting the fossil fuel sector and deregulation, which align with the interests of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which rely heavily on oil. It is expected that these policies will continue should he return to office, strengthening cooperation in oil and energy sectors as follows:
1- Support for Tax Cuts and Investment Encouragement: Trump’s administration was a strong proponent of tax cuts for corporations, which played a crucial role in creating a favorable investment climate. These policies align with Saudi Arabia’s economic goals. His first term saw reductions in corporate taxes, which facilitated a favorable environment for increasing foreign investments, including Saudi investments in the U.S. market. [2]. The tax cuts not only boosted U.S. domestic companies but also encouraged foreign countries, including Saudi Arabia, to enhance their investments in U.S. markets. These policies are expected to be more favorable for Saudi Arabia as it seeks to diversify its economy away from oil, through investments in the U.S. energy sector and other critical industries.
2- Enhancing Trade Relations Between Saudi Arabia and the United States: The economic ties between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. saw marked improvement during Trump’s first term, with bilateral trade reaching $37 billion in 2018, including $24 billion in Saudi exports to the U.S. and $13 billion in imports from the U.S., reflecting a favorable trade balance for Riyadh. [3]، This increase demonstrates a positive response from the Saudi market to Trump’s economic policies.
3- Stimulating Investments through Lower Interest Rates: One of the major policies likely to be reintroduced with Trump’s administration is his push for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.[4] This move would encourage international investment flows. If this trend continues, lower interest rates would make borrowing easier for businesses and investors, creating a favorable environment for increased Saudi investments in various sectors across the United States. Given that the global economy heavily relies on the U.S. dollar (which constitutes 60% of global trade)[5], a reduction in interest rates could have significant positive effects on the Saudi economy, allowing Saudi companies to benefit from favorable economic conditions and boosting foreign capital inflows. This would contribute to the kingdom’s long-term developmental objectives.
4- Support for the Oil and Fossil Fuel Industry: Trump’s economic policies have consistently supported the oil and fossil fuel sectors, which is of particular importance to Saudi Arabia. While Gulf countries face challenges in reducing their dependence on oil and achieving economic diversification, Saudi Arabia views Trump’s policies as an opportunity to strengthen its position as the world’s largest oil exporter. [6] Saudi Arabia is expected to benefit from Trump’s support for the U.S. oil sector, including encouragement for increased production and deregulation. This mutual cooperation in the energy sector could enhance Saudi investments in the U.S. oil industry, benefiting both parties and contributing to the stability of global energy markets.
5- Shared Vision for Global Economic Stability: Trump’s economic vision aligns with Saudi Arabia’s economic aspirations as outlined in Vision 2030. Both aim for growth and enhanced economic security. Through his policies, which focus on tax cuts and support for the oil industry, Trump would contribute to global economic stability, which could help achieve Saudi Arabia’s interests as a key player in global oil markets. Efforts to ease international crises, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, especially those affecting energy markets in the Middle East, could reduce economic tensions, creating a more stable environment for Saudi foreign investments and strengthening the kingdom’s ability to achieve its strategic goals.
Secondly: Security Relations Between Saudi Arabia and the Trump Administration
During President Donald Trump’s tenure, defense and security relations between the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia were characterized by a strong focus on direct strategic cooperation. Saudi Arabia was the first foreign stop for Trump, reflecting its role as a key partner in his Middle East policy, especially following his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and the imposition of a “maximum pressure”[7] policy through stringent economic sanctions. This approach resonated with Riyadh, which viewed Iran as a significant regional threat. The Trump administration also supported arms sales to the Kingdom as part of a broader partnership aimed at achieving regional stability. The signing of the historic arms deal in May 2017, valued at $110 billion, was a major expression of this alliance. The deal included the provision of fighter jets, advanced missiles, defense equipment, and security systems, along with military training and enhanced defense capabilities for the Kingdom. [8]، Additionally, a follow-up package worth up to $350 billion was agreed upon,[9]، which included continuous logistical and technical support for the Saudi military, making Saudi Arabia a cornerstone in Trump’s strategy to contain regional threats.
Under President Joe Biden, defense and security relations between the two countries underwent significant changes. Biden expressed his intent to “restore American leadership” after Trump’s “America First” policy, prompting a re-evaluation of defense relations with Saudi Arabia. This included halting the sale of offensive weapons at the beginning of his presidency in 2021 as part of his effort to recalibrate the use of military force. [10] This shift was seen as a radical departure from the previous administration’s stance. However, as his term neared its end, the Biden administration reconsidered its policy towards Saudi Arabia and decided to lift the ban on the sale of offensive weapons, [11] acknowledging the importance of Saudi Arabia as a strategic ally in a region marked by ongoing tensions and aiming to improve Biden’s image before the end of his term.
With Donald Trump’s return to power on January 20, 2025, it is expected that he will seek to strengthen defense and security ties with Saudi Arabia, resuming large-scale arms deals established during his first term, similar to the historic arms deal. These deals would likely involve the supply of advanced weapons systems and continued support for the Kingdom’s defense capabilities, in line with a strategy aimed at achieving regional stability and enhancing the security balance in the face of regional challenges, particularly those related to Iran. It is also anticipated that Saudi Arabia will be prioritized for access to the U.S. Excess Defense Articles (EDA) program, allowing the Kingdom to purchase surplus defense equipment at discounted prices, [12] thus enhancing its ability to modernize its defense systems at affordable costs. Moreover, Saudi Arabia could be eligible to host U.S. military stockpiles, a strategic move that would strengthen military cooperation between the two countries and solidify Saudi Arabia’s position as a key defense partner in the region.
Thirdly: Saudi-China Relations After Trump’s Return
China is now a major player in the global power equation, being the second-largest economy in the world. Given the strategic importance of the Arabian Gulf, China places significant focus on Saudi Arabia, viewing it as a central player in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [13] which aims to establish a network of land, sea, and rail routes connecting China with Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. This initiative seeks to bolster trade and open new markets for Chinese products. This role reflects China’s ambition to play a larger part in the Middle East, while ensuring the security of its energy supply and expanding its access to promising investment markets, attracting Saudi investments.
However, Trump’s return to power could prompt Saudi Arabia to reassess its relationship with China. During Trump’s first term, Saudi-China relations did not mark a fundamental shift in Saudi foreign policy as much as a reaction to the policies of the Biden administration. The Kingdom’s relationship with China was largely a reflection of Riyadh’s discontent with Biden’s approach rather than a profound strategic realignment. [14] Therefore, Trump’s return could encourage Saudi Arabia to return to its traditional approach of strengthening ties with the United States, while considering the changing strategic balances.
It is important to note that Trump’s return could exacerbate tensions between the U.S. and China, which may have repercussions for Middle Eastern and Gulf countries. The Trump administration may exert pressure on countries in the region to reduce their reliance on Beijing and enhance their relations with Washington. In this context, Saudi Arabia may be forced to readjust its foreign policies in a more balanced way, continuing to deepen its economic ties with China, while supporting its traditional security alliances with the U.S.
In conclusion, the return of Trump is expected to result in a reconfiguration of Saudi-China relations, influenced by the intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing, as well as shifts in regional and global balances. While Riyadh may continue to capitalize on its close ties with Washington, it will likely remain cautious and adopt a balanced strategy that allows it to manage the challenges arising from the rivalry between the great powers.
Fourthly: The Future of the Saudi-Israeli Normalization Process
Following Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the Saudi-Israeli normalization process is expected to undergo a significant transformation. This will involve intensifying efforts to expand the Abraham Accords to include Riyadh. Despite the challenges this issue may face, the Trump administration is expected to work intensively to accelerate this process. Trump is likely to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but with a different approach. This may involve imposing a demilitarized Palestinian settlement, with the Palestinian Authority being the most affected party in this approach. [15] The proposal is expected to include a Palestinian state with limited sovereignty under Israeli security guarantees. Additionally, the White House is likely to support major initiatives to stimulate the Palestinian economy, such as investments of up to $50 billion to transform the West Bank and Gaza into regional financial and commercial centers. This approach may face resistance from Palestinians and some regional powers, but it reflects Trump’s vision, which focuses on linking peace with economic development in the Middle East.
On the other hand, significant efforts will be made to establish defense cooperation between Riyadh and Washington, including new arms deals and enhancing cooperation in civilian nuclear energy. Saudi Arabia will consider normalization with Israel, a step that will be welcomed in Washington, but Riyadh will set the condition of a two-state solution as an essential prerequisite for this normalization, insisting on the realization of the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination. This has been repeatedly emphasized by Saudi Arabia, including through the “Global Coalition” initiative launched for the two-state solution. This political standoff between Washington and Riyadh over linking normalization to the two-state solution may constitute a barrier to rapid progress in this matter. Therefore, it can be said that the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel after Trump’s return will largely depend on political transformations, particularly the balance between Israeli and Palestinian demands. It is likely that Trump will remain committed to his “peace to prosperity” approach, but the success of this strategy will be linked to complex regional agreements, which may at times hinder the speed of implementation.
Conclusion:
The Saudi-American relationship is expected to experience a period of strategic transformations following Trump’s return to the White House. Economic and security cooperation between the two countries will be strengthened, with a focus on energy and defense sectors. Riyadh will also balance its relations with Beijing after Trump’s return. However, normalization with Israel will remain the cornerstone of these relations. Trump will continue to press Riyadh to achieve this goal, while Saudi Arabia will insist on its conditions regarding the two-state solution. In summary, the future of these relations will depend on the ability of the U.S. administration to find a balanced approach between the security and economic interests of both parties, in addition to making tangible progress in addressing the thorny regional issues.
References:
[1] الملك سلمان وولي العهد يهنئان ترمب بفوزه في الانتخابات الأميركية، العربية، تاريخ النشر: ٦ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٤، متاح على الرابط: https://linksshortcut.com/cJfQm
[3] الميزان التجاري لـ5 دول عربية مع الولايات المتحدة خاسر باستثناء دولة واحدة، RT Arabic ، تاريخ النشر: ١٠ يوليو ٢٠١٩، متاح على الرابط: https://linksshortcut.com/vuzXm
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[8] رحاب الزيادي، العلاقات الأمريكية السعودية: توتر مؤقت أم تحول استراتيجي؟، المركز المصري للفكر والدراسات الاستراتيجية، تاريخ النشر: ٢٧ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٢، متاح على الرابط: https://ecss.com.eg/30939/
[10] مايسة مرزوق، العلاقات الأمريكية -السعودية في ظل إدارة بايدن : معضلة تحقيق التوازن بين المبادئ والمصالح، المركز الديمقراطي العربي، تاريخ النشر: ١٥ أبريل ٢٠٢١، متاح على الرابط: https://democraticac.de/?p=74069
[11] رويترز: إدارة بايدن رفعت حظر بيع الأسلحة الهجومية إلى السعودية، العربية، تاريخ النشر: ٩ أغسطس ٢٠٢٤، متاح على الرابط: https://linksshortcut.com/MxtDM
[13] به زبان فارسي، التنافُس الأمريكي-الصيني وانعكاساته على منطقة الشرق الأوسط، المعهد الدولي للدراسات الإيرانية، تاريخ النشر: ٢٢ أبريل ٢٠٢١، متاح على الرابط: https://linksshortcut.com/boPSA
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