Articles
An Evaluation of India-China relations
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By: Abdelrahman Mohamed
Research assistant in International Affairs Unit
Since the beginning of relations between the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of India, the border dispute between them has been a thorn in the heart of relations between the two countries, making these relations fragile and explosive. This dispute began in 1962 due to conflicting demands between the two countries regarding the border, and the nationalist policies in both countries played a major role in fueling this dispute, as the loss of state lands is a sufficient reason for the decline of the state’s prestige and the popularity of the government.[1]
The two countries agreed in 1988 to try to find a political solution to the border issue and to put the dispute aside from their bilateral relations, but the fighting was renewed in 2020 after relations had been characterized by fragile peace for a long time. [2]
The border clash background :-
On May 5, 2020, skirmishes broke out between the Indian and Chinese armies, with 5,000 Chinese troops advancing towards the Galwan Valley, Gogra Hot Springs and Pangong Lake, which China claims as its own, and in response India made its own military moves on the Indian army’s Line of Actual Control. On June 15, in Galwan valley, violent and brutal clashes broke out between the two armies with fists and nail-studded clubs, due to an agreement between the two countries in 1996 not to use firearms and explosives near the border, however, the clashes left at least twenty Indians and four Chinese dead, some of whom drowned after falling into the frozen river.[3]
India and China are facing a period that witnesses their lowest level of relation in decades, as their relationship deteriorated with the bloody border clash in June 2020, but however the two countries tried their best to overcome this incident by keeping silent about it, not shedding light on it, or blaming any party as an aggressor, as official sources in China said that the incident broke out by chance, while the official Chinese media remained noticeably silent, also President Modi downplayed the incident, did not shed light on it, and denied that Chinese forces had seized any Indian territory.[4]
There were accusations from the Indian Ministry of Defense against China, but they were quickly withdrawn, reflecting India’s tendency towards appeasement with China, the results of which were reflected in the agreement signed by the two parties last October 2024.[5]
Settlement efforts between the two countries:-
India and China have reached an agreement to end the chaos and fighting that occurred between the two countries’ border forces in 2020, after a clash that resulted in dozens of casualties and led to a major decline in Sino-Indian relations that was unprecedented in recent decades. This agreement is a major step towards ending the conflict between the two countries, even if temporarily, and paves the way for strengthening political and trade ties and relations between the two countries.
Communication and mutual understanding…
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China and India have agreed on patrol arrangements to try to defuse the dispute between the two countries along their Himalayan border, the details of the agreement have not been disclosed to the public, but its meaning can be inferred from statements made by officials from both countries, for example the Indian Foreign Minister Vikram Misri said, “An agreement has been reached on the arrangement of patrols along the Line of Actual Control(LAC) in the India-China border areas, leading to disengagement and resolution of issues that arose in these areas in 2020.”[6]
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The agreement represents a clear effort by the two countries to enhance the presence of peaceful patrols on both sides, ease tensions and allow both nationalist leaders to maintain their standing and popularity with their citizens.
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The agreement was made ahead of the BRICS summit in Russia, in a sign that the two countries are putting their mutual economic interests ahead of their border disputes, and it is important to note that China is India’s largest trading partner with $118.4 billion in bilateral commerce, and India certainly does not want to enter into a deadlock with it.[7]
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The agreement between New Delhi and Beijing re-establishes patrol rights in the Depsang and Demchok areas, and both sides have agreed to limit the number of troops participating in these patrols and to closely monitor them to prevent any direct clashes or confrontations between the two parties. The importance of this area is due to the presence of the Indian military base Daulat Beg Oldi, which makes this location very strategic and important for India.[8]
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China is showing a great desire to cooperate and ease border tensions with India to face other challenges that await it, most notably the return of Donald Trump to the White House next January and his readiness to launch a fierce trade war with Beijing.
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Through this cooperation with India, China is likely to ensure improved economic relations with it to prevent restrictions on Chinese investments, and India is likely to achieve economic growth from this cooperation and similar benefits from this agreement.[9]
A temporary calm or a permanent resolution…
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It cannot be asserted that the border dispute has been radically resolved, but it is a reconciliation aimed at calming the current dispute through several diplomatic efforts aimed at gradually adjusting relations between the two countries and making efforts to avoid any conflict or direct confrontation between the two countries again. Therefore, the border agreement did not resolve the current crisis, but rather reduced the latent tension between the two countries.[10]
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Sino-Indian relations are characterized by mutual suspicion, mistrust and caution, due to the competition between the two nuclear powers for regional leadership in the region, in light of New Delhi’s anticipation of China’s growing influence in the Indian and Pacific Oceans region, while China is monitoring the rapprochement between India and China’s first rival, the United States, which makes agreement between the two countries very difficult and leaves room for the possibility of a future renewal of the dispute between them.[11]
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However, India is likely to continue to pursue a balanced policy based on cooperation with China on balanced foundations between the two countries, while continuing to establish alliances with the west, especially with the United States, and it’s important to note that New Delhi maintains an independent strategy from both sides, they aim to establish balanced relations with China, a friendly country in the BRICS bloc, and the United States, their most important western ally.[12]
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India is likely to continue efforts to balance China’s influence in the Asian continent. Therefore, this calm is based on cooperative economic foundations aimed at leaving the conflict aside and moving forward to strengthen bilateral relations between the two countries. As for the strategic and security level, there is a feeling of doubt between the two countries regarding the unresolved border issue.