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Does the Russian-Chinese alliance signal a new Cold War ?
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By: Laila Ahmed
Research Assistant at the International Affairs Unit
Introduction:
Given their increasing economic and geopolitical isolation, how long will the Russian-Chinese alliance last, and can Russia continue to rely more on China? How will the future of international diplomacy be shaped by a Sino-Russian union that creates a new “Iron Curtain” if their alliance turns into a legitimate defence against NATO and US allies?
The EU has stated that Russia’s war against Ukraine poses a “existential” threat to Europe, and Beijing intends to collaborate with Moscow to undermine European security. China is prepared to contest both NATO’s assurance of the security of Eastern European states and the growing actions of Western European alliance members on NATO’s eastern flank in support of Ukraine. So, the question is does the US currently in a cold war with Russia and China?
The Chinese-Russian threat
China is willing to fully back Putin’s effort to threaten and undermine liberal democratic states is certainly a newsflash. Ever since Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Beijing has been treading carefully to avoid perceptions that it is overtly supporting Moscow and has been claiming to occupy a neutral position – even if China has been leaning toward Russia’s side.[1]
Although China and Russia both offer alternate models of government to the West, that may be the full extent of their similarities. China’s economy is more diverse and flexible than Russia’s, which is still isolated and subject to sanctions due to the Russo-Ukrainian War. [2]
The question of whether the Russian and Chinese dangers are distinct has been frequently discussed in the United States since the start of the full-scale conflict in Ukraine. Understanding the two authoritarian regimes and the threats they represent to the security of the United States and its allies has been attempted numerous times. Some contend that China and Russia pose different challenges and that there is little connection between them.
This argument holds that the conflict in Ukraine is a diversion from the long-term structural threat Beijing poses to the United States. Washington should therefore focus its efforts on strengthening the US deterrence in the Pacific rather than the European Theatre.
Others contend that the two theaters are inseparable, particularly in light of the tight political ties between China and Russia, their “no-limits” alliance after 2022, and the friendly personal ties between Xi Jinping and Putin.
Moscow and Beijing appear more eager than ever to test American reactions to their escalation, whether in the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, the Middle East, or Ukraine. One of Moscow’s friends from Asia sending soldiers to Eastern Europe sets a precedent that goes against lingering Cold War presumptions.[3]
Growing ties between Russia and China
In a show of military power, Russia and China conducted coordinated naval manoeuvres in the South China Sea in July 2024. The exercises included air defence, sea strikes, and anti-missile training. The synchronized military exercise illustrated a future in which China’s and Russia’s interests will grow closer together.
It happened just days after NATO leaders made harsh statements calling on China to halt its increased economic backing for Russia in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.
In recent months, there has been an upsurge in these combined military drills, such as the week-long “Ocean-2024” training in early September. The two nations’ developing ties has drawn media attention and sparked rumours of a “new Cold War.” Numerous analysts have questioned the possibility of a growing global divide.[4]
In contrast to the Cold War of the 20th century, a new Cold War would pit China and Russia against the West, particularly NATO. The conflict between NATO and the new autocratic alliance has been made worse by the Russo-Ukrainian War. The foundation for bilateral trade and economic support was laid in early February 2022, only weeks before the invasion, when Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced their “no limits” partnership.
A surge of trade helped both nations, but Russia stands to earn more from the partnership because of the Russo-Ukrainian War. As severe Western sanctions threatened to isolate Russia from the rest of the world, China has already stepped in to support its economy. This alliance could serve as a significant threat to the stability of the Western world.[5]
Putin and Xi’s joint statement makes it clear that both China and Russia view the strategic infrastructure of Western “military alliances” as a danger. The proposal for the creation of ill-defined buffer zones around nuclear-armed states is unexpected since it contradicts China’s frequently issued warnings against “Cold War mentality” and its self-proclaimed principle of non-interference in a state’s internal affairs. Furthermore, this statement suggests that Moscow and Beijing are disregarding the sovereignty of the smaller states that fall between them. Rather, might makes right, leaving weak states vulnerable to the whims of powerful nations and their respective domains of influence.[6]
In the new Cold War, Russia is more important to the Chinese leadership than Europe. The importance of bilateral ties extends beyond the two Eurasian giants’ increasing trade and economic complementarities.
The joint statement is the clearest sign to far that China is open to a military partnership with Russia. Despite Chinese vows of more economic liberalization and a charm appeal to European enterprises, the document makes it apparent that bloc conflict is the new game in town. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, urged Xi in France to restrict the supply of dual-use equipment to Russia, but Xi only gave a vague response.
It appears that Beijing has already factored in the unintended “loss of Europe” as the cost of its partnership with Moscow.[7]
What is happening between US, Russia and China ?
Is the US now in a cold war with Russia and China? The main feature of the original Cold War, which distinguished it from a “hot” war, was the absence of direct conflict between the superpowers. The threat of nuclear war made the superpowers cautious about engaging in direct fight. Because the enemies are not directly fighting each other, the new era we are in exemplifies this crucial aspect of cold wars. For instance, although Russia has invaded Ukraine, it has taken care to avoid attacking any NATO member directly, which would have activated the organization’s collective defence clauses and drawn the US into the war.[8]
However, The US has been cautious to provide Ukraine with military and economic backing without running the risk of a direct confrontation with the Russian forces. Because doing so would directly place US forces in confrontation with Russia, the US has so rejected requests to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Instead, the US has been carefully weighing the amount of assistance it can provide to Ukraine without inciting conflict with Russia. [9]
There also seems to be a cold war between the US and China, though this is less clear. The US and China are involved in a long-running disagreement over Taiwan, but they are not currently involved in any proxy conflicts comparable to the armed conflict in Ukraine. While also, trade, human rights, and democracy are among the main issues that cause friction between the US and China.[10]
There is general consensus that we are currently engaged in a new cold war, notwithstanding differences of opinion over certain details. However, we cannot disregard the prospect that the conflict could eventually turn into a hot war, even though it is currently a cold one. If the current war between global superpowers turned into a hot conflict, the outcome might be disastrous.
Although the risk of mutually assured destruction makes it unlikely that any of the parties would intentionally escalate the conflict to a nuclear one, any direct military conflict between nuclear powers, even if it begins as a non-nuclear one, has the potential to escalate in ways that are difficult to control.[11]
On the other hand, it could be regarded that the alliance between China and Russia may not be best described as a “new cold war.” Although China and Russia are seen as the two biggest dangers to Western stability, the situation is more complex than a straightforward dichotomy. Given China’s concerns about the conflict and its advantage in commerce and joint ventures, such as space programs, it is doubtful that Russia could provoke the West without China’s backing. The country is reluctant to completely back Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War or any potential new Cold War because of its reliance on trade with the US and the EU.[12]
Imbalance economic relationship between Russia and China
Russia has been increasingly reliant on China for trade and economic support as a result of Western sanctions, especially in the form of subsidized energy exports.
By boosting its investments and economic clout within Russia, China has profited from Russia’s isolation, and Chinese businesses are now participating in a larger percentage of Russian markets. There is an imbalance in this economic relationship, with China enjoying advantageous trade conditions.
Russia’s economy has been severely harmed by Western sanctions and the conflict in Ukraine, as seen by the declining value of the ruble, growing dependence on China, and indications that Russia may soon become China’s economic partner rather than an equal.[13]
Russia primarily sends crude oils and other mineral fuels to China, whereas China exports a range of vehicles, machinery, and other items to Russia. This disparity in trading materials and China’s trade surplus with Russia show how dependent Russia is on China for trade, especially during the conflict in Ukraine when it has few other options for vital manufactured and industrial commodities.
China still depends on the West for commerce, even if it has developed ties with Russia. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) nations, the European Union, and the United States are China’s top three export destinations. In 2023, they imported US$500.3 billion, US$501.2 billion, and US$523.7 billion worth of Chinese goods, respectively. In 2023, Russia purchased just $111.0 billion worth of goods from China. The Chinese leadership has taken care to avoid cutting ties with either Russia or the West (the US and EU) because of how important it is to keep up commerce with both countries. Xi and his administration have stated time and again that China is neutral on the conflict in Ukraine. Notably, China’s frequent export of ‘dual-use’ goods, which can be used for both military and civilian purposes, to Russia proves the country is trying to avoid directly supplying Russia with military equipment. [14]
The war in Ukraine has been an enormous gift from Russia to China, boosting the status of the yuan and opening up the Russian market for Chinese companies. The Kremlin has been avoided economic and political catastrophe by Beijing’s choice to continue doing business with Moscow following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the nature of Western sanctions. China is becoming a vital source of imports for Russia in addition to opening its market for Russian energy exports. Because of this, the two nations’ economic integration has increased significantly; in 2023, the yuan surpassed even the US dollar as the most traded currency on the Moscow Exchange.[15]
Donald Trump, the president-elect, argues that he can break apart the partnership between China and Russia. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they recently established a “no limits” alliance. Trump accused the Biden administration of allowing the two powers to draw closer together stressing on the importance of tearing this dangerous pact. As he strongly claimed that seeing Russia and China uniting is the last thing he wants to see. Trump has long bragged about his ability to make deals and said that he got along with strongmen leaders Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia while he was in office. However, experts warn that breaking the alliance between China and Russia may prove to be an impossible task. [16]
It appears like Trump will attempt to restore US ties with Moscow instead of Beijing. Nor can Trump’s seeming intention to use tensions between China and Russia to the US’s benefit be written off as wholly impossible.
On the surface, Xi and Putin appear to be very similar. However, a closer look at the relationship between China and Russia indicates that it is largely between their current leaders and does not have the institutional depth of other partnerships.
In Russian public and policy circles, there is a great deal of animosity towards China. Russians continue to be concerned about the possibility of conflicts over long-disputed boundaries and China’s expanding influence in Central Asia. Additionally, a lot of people are angry because Moscow is now a junior partner to Beijing.[17]
Putin and Xi are committed to overthrowing US dominance in the world, and they see Trump’s election as an opportunity to do it.
Despite their disagreements, Moscow and Beijing both see America as in terminal decline, which is now being exacerbated by the turmoil that is anticipated from a second Trump administration.
At the same time, Trump may try to take advantage of the significant underlying strains in the alliance despite the proclamations of unity. Trump repeatedly argued that China and Russia are “natural enemies” due to China’s desire for Russian land in the Far East for its expanding population.[18]
Trump and Putin may reach an agreement, but it’s doubtful that Putin would follow through on it. Putin is far more likely to play both sides in the hopes that Russia can join China and the US as a third peer in the new world order that is developing.
Given the scale of the Russian economy alone, this is obviously a pure dream, but Putin is unlikely to let that deter him from his desire to make Russia a superpower again.[19]
Conclusion:
The relationship between Russia and China is still worth keeping an eye on. Will Russia be able to gain more influence over their relationship by reversing the power disparity between the two nations? Will the war be influenced by Chinese economic clout? Right now, Russia and China’s disparate geopolitical objectives and power disparities do not point to a renewed authoritarian alliance in a new Cold War although a lot claim that there is a current Cold War between USA, Russia and China.
Moscow and Beijing appear more eager than ever to test American reactions to their escalation, whether in the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, the Middle East, or Ukraine. Thus, Trump may try to take advantage of the significant underlying strains in the alliance despite the proclamations of unity. Trump repeatedly argued that China and Russia are “natural enemies”. Moreover, He might still try to open up to Russia by striking a deal with Putin over Ukraine. But such a deal with Putin is not the same as dividing Russia and China. On the contrary, it is more likely to “un-unite” Europe and the US and weaken the trans-Atlantic alliance further.
References:
[1] https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/in-the-new-cold-war-europes-approach-to-china-is-already-outdated/
[2] https://hir.harvard.edu/chinas-aid-in-the-ukraine-war/
[3] https://cepa.org/article/russia-and-china-two-countries-one-threat/
[4] https://hir.harvard.edu/chinas-aid-in-the-ukraine-war/
[5] https://hir.harvard.edu/chinas-aid-in-the-ukraine-war/
[6] https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/in-the-new-cold-war-europes-approach-to-china-is-already-outdated/
[7] https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/in-the-new-cold-war-europes-approach-to-china-is-already-outdated/
[8] Stuart Ford, The New Cold War with China and Russia: Same as the Old Cold War? , 55 Case W. Res. J. Int’l
423 (2023)