Research Assistant at the International Affairs Unit
US-Chinese relations are one of the most important challenges to US foreign policy, which may be clearly reshaped after the outcome of the US elections that will be held starting today, Tuesday, November 5, between Kamala Harris, the candidate of the Democratic Party, and Donald Trump, the candidate of the Republican Party. In general, the strong competition between Washington and Beijing on various issues, whether the fierce trade war between them, or their competition in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as the conflicting interests regarding the position of the United States of America and China in Taiwan and the different handling of the Democratic and Republican Party on that issue, so the upcoming presidential elections will have a significant impact on the future of Sino-American relations in determining Washington’s directions in dealing with Beijing.
Harris and Continuation of Biden’s Foreign Policy
In recent years, President Joe Biden’s administration has sought to thaw the strained relations between the U.S. and China by adopting a relatively calming approach. Recent meetings between officials from both sides, such as the meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and President Biden, alongside U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in late October 2023, reflect a mutual desire to restore and repair communication lines to ensure a peaceful management of their competition. These efforts culminated in the meeting between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-November 2023 at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco. During this meeting, both parties agreed to continue political dialogue, maintain open communications, and consult regularly on economic and trade issues, as well as military discussions to avoid misunderstandings, especially in the South China Sea.[1]
It is likely that Harris, Biden’s current vice president and the Democratic Party candidate, will adopt Biden’s policies in dealing with China, focusing on political dialogue and diplomacy while promoting democratic values in their interactions.
Future of the Trade War Between the U.S. and China if Harris Wins:
The November 2023 meeting between Biden and Xi included warnings about the catastrophic consequences of economic decoupling between the two countries, which would create a crisis for the global economy. Both sides emphasized their intent to avoid economic separation and discuss trade cooperation, especially as China faces a relative economic slowdown. This collaboration could also aid the U.S. in combating inflation and redirecting the American economy onto the right path. In response, Beijing expressed its willingness to cooperate with Washington to protect international trade norms.[2]
Harris criticized the tariffs imposed by Trump in 2018 during their presidential debate, arguing that raising tariffs on China would harm U.S. consumers who would struggle to access affordable goods amid inflation. She accused Trump of igniting a trade war that allowed American chips to be sent to China, thus enhancing the capabilities of the Chinese military.[3]
Despite the importance of U.S.-Chinese relations, this issue did not receive significant attention in the Harris-Trump debate, except for the point on tariffs. Neither candidate sufficiently outlined how they would address China’s growing influence and military expansion.[4]
Biden and Xi also discussed resuming military talks, which would help avoid misunderstandings and conflicts, particularly in the South China Sea, alongside cooperation on transnational challenges like climate change, global economic stability, and the fight against fentanyl addiction. They also agreed to establish an international dialogue on artificial intelligence, all of which Harris is likely to resume, commit to, and work on implementing and developing with the Chinese government, which is very open to such talks with the American side.[5]
Another prediction is that Harris may maintain the tariffs previously imposed by Trump while restricting the export of high-tech goods to China, especially those related to U.S. national security and countering Chinese espionage activities. Thus, the efforts for rapprochement initiated by Biden, which Harris is expected to continue if she wins the upcoming elections, are based on mutual distrust and suspicion, which lie at the core of the competitive relationship between China and the U.S.[6]
Relative De-escalation and Controlled Escalation:
Harris is likely to continue Biden’s approach of relative de-escalation through intensive diplomacy and controlled escalation. This does not imply that the U.S. and China have become allies or that the possibility of escalation has vanished. There could be several determinants leading to controlled escalation due to China’s growing economic, political, ideological, and military prominence, posing a significant threat to the U.S. as the current dominant power in the international system.[7]
Harris will likely face criticism from the Republicans and within the U.S. if she adopts a soft policy toward China. Therefore, she will avoid this while also steering clear of the risks of escalation, as it would not serve the U.S. economy. Biden’s economic approach toward China has yielded greater gains for the U.S., evidenced by Washington becoming the largest recipient of foreign direct investment in 2023, while the trade deficit between Beijing and Washington has decreased to its lowest level of $279 billion, compared to $311 billion in Trump’s last year.[8]
Harris is acutely aware that escalation could exert substantial pressure on the U.S., especially with the intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Israeli conflict in Gaza and Lebanon, and the potential escalation with Iran following Iran’s recent direct attack on Israel. The U.S. remains a strong ally of both Ukraine and Israel, and Harris will not allow for additional pressure on the U.S. economy by choosing escalation with China.
She is also mindful of the Sino-Russian rapprochement since the onset of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the international competition in the Indo-Pacific region, where the U.S. strives to counter Chinese influence. Therefore, Harris will continue to deepen ties with regional allies to enhance her competitive edge over China, particularly through cooperation with the G7, the Quad security dialogue (Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S.), the AUKUS alliance (Australia, the U.K., and the U.S.), and trilateral cooperation between Japan, South Korea, and the U.S.[9]
Trump and escalation trends with Beijing:
If Trump returns to the White House, the likelihood of escalation between the U.S. and China will increase. Trump utilizes foreign policy issues to promote himself as the savior of the U.S. and capable of managing various international challenges, such as the Russian-Ukrainian war and Middle Eastern crises, while curbing Beijing’s influence, which he views as a threat to U.S. international standing. He employs slogans like MAGA (Make America Great Again) and is expected to adopt an aggressive approach toward Beijing, aligning with his isolationist foreign policy motto of “America first”.[10]
Most Republican leaders have criticized Biden’s policies toward Beijing. Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have indicated that the rhetoric toward China should intensify, believing that this will compel China to submit to U.S. policies. Some Republican members of Congress, like Jim Risch, argue that China should be treated as an aggressor and criticize Biden’s policies for undermining U.S. national security interests.[11]
Mike Gallagher, chairman of the Strategic Competition with China Committee, and Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, have criticized Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing, viewing it as a sign of weakness threatening U.S. national security. They argue that ongoing attempts to normalize diplomatic relations with Beijing will weaken U.S. power.[12]
Tariffs on China:
Trump believes in imposing comprehensive tariffs on all imports at a rate of 10%, with a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, even if they are from U.S.-based Chinese companies. He has attacked Biden and Harris’s economic policies, claiming, “I have never seen a worse time.” Trump accuses them of Marxism, alleging that Harris was educated by her Marxist father, a retired professor from Stanford University. He believes that implementing his tariff plans against China will help American investors and boost domestic investments, thereby increasing job opportunities for Americans.[13]
This aggressive stance Trump holds is clear and evident in the tariffs he plans to impose on Beijing, convinced that this will force China to comply with U.S. policies and compel it to make concessions to Washington. This would encourage multinational companies to return to the U.S. and withdraw from China. Trump has also indicated his intention to impose strict restrictions on Chinese ownership of vital U.S. facilities, forcing them to sell what he perceives as significant threats to U.S. national security. Trump’s campaign advisors promote these policies, believing they will stimulate domestic production and severely damage the Chinese economy.
It is well known that the trade war Trump initiated against Beijing resulted in massive losses amounting to approximately $316 billion, with U.S. companies losing about $1.7 trillion in stock value and the U.S. economy losing 300,000 jobs. Additionally, the trade deficit rose by 21% during his term. These aggressive trade policies did not yield any positive economic results, yet they bolstered Trump’s political standing domestically. Despite these negative statistics and estimates regarding Trump’s policies, he is expected to continue them if he returns to the White House, terminating China’s trade status and ending U.S. reliance on China.[14]
Taiwan Between Harris and Trump:
Regarding Taiwan, there is a clear divergence between Trump and Harris’s foreign policies concerning the Taiwan issue. Harris will follow Biden’s approach of defending Taiwan and assisting it in the event of any Chinese aggression. She will continue to establish regional and international alliances to contain and encircle China, especially in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.[15]
In contrast, Trump views Taiwan as a burden on the U.S. and has explicitly stated that “Taiwan does not give us anything.” He added that the U.S. acts as if it is its insurance company and described Taiwan as an economic competitor to Washington. Thus, if Trump wins the election, he may abandon Taiwan, which would be a significant gain for China.[16]
In conclusion:
It can be said that there are somewhat clear policies for the direction that the Democratic Party – represented by Harris i the next presidential election is decided in its favor – towards US-Chinese relations, which is to continue talks and not resort to the option of escalation, but US-Chinese relations and the efforts of Joe Biden in his last years remain at stake if Trump, who prefers an escalatory approach, comes to power.
References:
[1] Arendse Huld, Xi-Biden Meeting: “Productive” Talks Lead to Increased Cooperation in Key Areas, China-Briefing, November 2023, 16,
