Articles
“Iraq – U.S.” Relations in the Trump Era: Between the Past and the Future
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Prepared by: Riham Mohammed
Researcher at the Middle East Affairs Unit
Iraq-US relations during Trump’s first term (2017-2021) have experienced sharp fluctuations combining military cooperation in the fight against terrorism with the political tension caused by American pressure on Iraq to reduce Iranian influence, US sanctions on Iran have also had a direct impact on Iraq’s economy and the escalation culminated in the assassination of Qassem Soleimani This prompted the Iraqi Parliament to call for the exit of US troops, and as Trump returned to the White House The question arises about the future of this relationship, especially in view of Iraq’s recent decision to end exemptions for electricity imports from Iran on March 9, which could deepen economic and political challenges between the two countries.
Iraq and America during Trump’s first term: Major Transformations:
During Trump’s first term of office (2017-2021), Iraq-US relations have witnessed many developments and tensions, characterized by a combination of security cooperation and political and economic pressures. This can be explained as follows:
First, the political Aspect:
Political relations between Iraq and the United States have been significantly strained during the Trump administration, affected by a number of key factors, including:
Withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear deal: In May 2018, Trump announced his country’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed
strict economic sanctions on Tehran. This directly affected Iraq, which relies heavily on Iran for its energy and electricity supply. The Iraqi Government has therefore faced US pressure to comply with these sanctions; This prompted the United States to grant Iraq temporary exemptions to import gas and electricity from Iran, but these exemptions were renewed only every 90 days, putting Iraq in a critical position. As the Trump administration tightened its “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, Baghdad became an arena for indirect conflict between Washington and Tehran[1].
Increased Iranian influence and U.S. reaction: During Trump’s tenure, the United States tried to reduce Iranian influence in Iraq by imposing sanctions on pro-Tehran Iraqi figures such as some leaders of the Popular Mobilization factions, including the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on “Faleh al-Fayyad”, chairman of the Popular Mobilization Authority, in July 2020, over human rights violations linked to the crackdown on Iraqi protests.[2]
The Iraqi Parliament’s decision to end the presence of American troops: Following the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani and Vice President of the Popular Mobilization Forces Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, on January 5, 2020, the Iraqi Parliament voted on a resolution requiring the Government to remove all foreign forces from Iraqi territory.[3]
Strategic Dialogue between Iraq and the United States (2020-2021): Washington and Baghdad sought to organize their relationship through the Strategic Dialogue, which began its first tour in June 2020, as part of the discussion of the files of security and economic cooperation, energy and education. Trying to reset the relationship in line with common interests as well as shaping the future of the US presence in Iraq, and in August of the same year Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi visited Washington where he met with President Trump, It was agreed to reduce the number of US troops in Iraq In September 2020, the United States announced its intention to close its embassy in Baghdad as a result of increased rocket attacks, but retreated after receiving Iraqi assurances of enhanced security.[4]
Second: Economic Dimension:
Economic relations between the two countries have been characterized by cooperation in some areas but have seen pressure in others due to US sanctions on Iran.
US trade and investment in Iraq: The total annual trade between Iraq and the United States amounted to about $13 billion during Trump’s tenure. In August 2020, Iraq signed agreements with American Companies worth up to $8 billion to develop the electricity and energy sector, including General Electric, Chevron and Hannewell.
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Following the Iraqi Parliament’s vote to remove U.S. troops in January 2020, Trump threatened to impose economic sanctions against Iraq and even freeze the U.S. Federal Reserve’s existing Iraqi stocks of approximately $35 billion in oil revenues, which accounted for 90% of the state budget.[5]
Iraq’s economic crisis amid US pressure: As a result of sanctions on Iran, Iraq faced difficulties in paying its dues to import Iranian gas, resulting in shortages of electricity and popular protests. Iraq’s economy was severely affected in 2020 by the collapse of oil prices, which prompted the government to devalue the dinar against the dollar by up to 22% by December of the same year.[6]
Third: Military and Security Dimension:
The military and security aspect has been one of the most sensitive in the United States’ relations with Iraq during the Trump period. These relations have witnessed several notable events that can be summarized as follows:
War against ISIS and military cooperation: In December 2017, the Iraqi government officially declared victory over ISIS. After years of battles supported by the United States-led international coalition and despite the defeat of the organization, Washington has kept its forces in Iraq to pursue the remnants of the organization and prevent its re-emergence. s political forces “,leading to criticism from some Iraqi political forces, and by 2020 the number of American troops was estimated at 5,200; But Trump announced a reduction in the number of troops to 3,000, followed in September 2020, and as part of the strategic dialogue between the two countries, the United States agreed to reduce its military presence there and the Defense Department announced on November 17, 2020 the withdrawal of 500 troops from Iraq, reducing the number of U.S. troops in Iraq from 3,000 to 2,500.[7]
Assassination of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis: The United States launched a drone attack near Baghdad International Airport that killed the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, and the deputy head of the Iraqi People’s Mobilization Forces, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.[8]
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In addition, on January 7, 2021, an Iraqi Supreme Court issued a warrant for Trump’s arrest for “murder” following this airstrike, in which Baghdad considered a violation of its sovereignty. However, the execution of the warrant remained symbolic as there were no effective international mechanisms that compelled parties to abide by it, especially with the United States not recognizing the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court.[9]
Missile attacks on US forces: US military bases in Iraq, notably Taji and Ayn al-Assad, have been attacked by several Iranian-backed armed factions such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. In October 2020, Washington threatened to close its embassy in Baghdad if these attacks continued, prompting the Iraqi government to make a number of arrests against some of these factions.
The future of Iraq-U.S. relations after Trump’s return:
First: At the political level:
Political relations between Iraq and the United States are expected to see some new tensions, but there may also be opportunities for cooperation, Trump’s return to the White House and his policy The “maximum pressure” on Iran again, including the termination of Iraq’s exemptions to import electricity from Iran issued by its administration on March 9, will bring about major political shifts in the relationship between Baghdad and Washington according to the following factors:
Mounting US pressure on Iraq: Ending these exemptions means Iraq has a difficult choice; Either adhere to American policies and reduce its reliance on Iran or face the risk of direct or indirect United States sanctions, which would lead to significant tension between Baghdad and Washington, especially if certain Iraqi political forces, particularly factions close to Iran, insist on continuing their economic and political cooperation with Tehran.
Reconfiguration of alliances within Iraq: US pressure may cause divisions within Iraq’s political spectrum as pro-Iranian forces can resist any mitigation in response to US pressure and may use Parliament and the street as a means to pressure the government in contrast, there are other forces that might see American militancy as an opportunity to improve their relations with Washington, whether to obtain economic support or to promote stability in Iraq away from the Iranian side’s pressure.
US influence in financial institutions as leverage: Washington may rely on its influence within IMF and World Bank to indirectly pressure Baghdad investment projects or loans may be restricted unless the Iraqi Government commits itself to reducing its relations with Iran, this situation may oblige Iraq to reassess its foreign policy and clearly define its options between continuing under Iranian influence or adjusting to American transformations.
Possible review of bilateral agreements: Trump is likely to seek to renew negotiations on agreements signed between Iraq and the United States, especially with regard to military and economic cooperation, and may ask the Iraqi government to make additional concessions to ensure continued U.S. support, such as reducing the influence of the popular mobilization within state institutions.
Thus, the implementation of Trump’s policy towards Iraq could open up new issues and lead to understandings and agreements that reinforce American influence, posing a major challenge to Iraq in maintaining the independence of its decisions.
Second: Economically:
The economic profile will be crucial in determining the nature of the relationship between Baghdad and Washington during Trump’s second term This is based on Trump’s business background, where his external orientation reflects a philosophy based on the principle of profit and loss. Having spent many years building real estate projects and concluding business deals, this prompted him to adopt a policy aimed at achieving the economic interests of the United States with maximum benefits and minimal costs. and it seems that Trump intends to apply this same principle in his relations with Iraq, seeking to obtain The US presence in any country should be profitable and not merely a security or diplomatic obligation. Thus, Trump could seek to impose the cost of Iraq’s liberation according to his statements that US aid should not be free and Iraqis should pay for the liberation he has set at least $1 trillion.[10]
In this context, several possibilities are expected:
Continued American pressures on the Iraqi economy: The United States may use strict conditions on Iraqi remittances, particularly with regard to oil revenues held by the United States Federal Bank, and Washington could also use its influence to disrupt Chinese investments in Iraq, especially those related to infrastructure and energy projects.
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In addition, if Iraq is able to provide adequate security and political guarantees, we may see an increase in American investments, particularly in the areas of oil, gas and electric power; The Trump administration may pay major companies such as Chevron and ExxonMobil to expand their operations in Iraq in exchange for political and security pledges from the Iraqi government.
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Washington is also expected to strictly control Iraq’s remittances to Iran, which could disrupt some vital projects in Iraq. If Baghdad were to diversify its economic partnerships away from the United States; They may face threats of economic sanctions or a freeze on financial assets.
Third: At the military and security level:
The United States military presence in Iraq will remain a contentious issue, and there are likely to be significant changes under the second Trump administration. Some possibilities can be highlighted as follows:
Redeployment of US troops in Iraq: Despite the Biden administration’s efforts to reduce the number of US soldiers and turn their mission into an advisory, Trump may reassess this policy, and we may see an increase in US military factors if the threat from ISIS worsens or attacks against US interests in Iraq rise.
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Iraq’s Iranian-backed armed factions are also likely to continue attacks on U.S. troops there, which could prompt Trump to take tough military action, and potentially see U.S. operations targeting the leaders of the Popular Mobilization Forces, similar to the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani. This has now been renewed with the killing of the second ISIS commander known as the Amir of Global Operations – Abdullah Makki Musaleh al-Rifai, nicknamed “Abu Khadija”, and one of the other elements of the organization in a precise airstrike carried out by the United States Central Command forces in cooperation with Iraqi intelligence and security services in Anbar governorate on 13 March, 2025.