Is the EU heading into another historical enlargement 20 years later ?

 By: Laila Ahmed

INTRODUCTION:

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict restored the need for EU expansion. “Enlargement” has long been seen as a low priority; Croatia was the last nation to join the league in 2013, a decade after it first submitted its application.

However, circumstances evolved in the meantime. The “enlargement is back on track thanks to Vladimir Putin they say. But worth noting that the prospect of admitting new members is made possible by the strategic priority of expansion. However, it doesn’t guarantee it.

Today, there are five other current candidate countries besides Ukraine and Moldova: Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey.

Hence, one of the biggest political, economic, and social problems the European Union will confront in the upcoming years is unquestionably the enlargement, which includes contenders like Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and the Western Balkan. Ukraine’s admission would have the most effect because of its size. Everyone can see that this nation is in severe economic trouble in addition to being at war with Russia.

The 2004 EU Historic Expansion “Big Bang’ Enlargement” :

Ten nations from Central and Eastern Europe became members of the EU on May 1, 2004 marking the biggest expansion the European Union has ever seen.  The European Union’s eastern enlargement, fifteen years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, was a significant step towards bridging the divisions that had grown throughout the continent during the Cold War.

Along with the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as the Mediterranean islands of Malta and Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia entered the EU in 2004. As a result, there were 25 members of the Union instead of just 15. The EU’s population increased by more than 25% over night with the addition of 75 million new citizens.[1]

Economically, The 2004 EU expansion has had significant economic effects on all of the member nations as well as the bloc. The number of official languages in the EU rose from 11 to 21 and the number of member states from 15 to 25 over night as a result of what was formally known as the fifth enlargement.

The entrance of Bulgaria and Romania in 2007 was a part of the same wave of enlargement. These two countries were not allowed to join in 2004 because of issues with corruption and the rule of law, but the European Commission claims they are a part of the fifth enlargement.

Notably, membership in the EU offered significant advantages through a variety of paths, most prominent among them was greater investment, wider market access, and sizeable structural and cohesion grants from the EU budget.

New members saw major shifts in their economy right away. Poland and Slovakia, for example, saw fast economic development that exceeded the growth rates of long-standing EU members.[2]

After almost twenty years, it is difficult to disagree with the 2004 enlargement’s success. With the exception of one significant nation, every nation that was a part of the 2004 batch is significantly richer and freer. In addition to generating wealth, the EU has strengthened democracy and promoted progressive ideals.

It makes sense why there is a long waiting list to join the EU.

History:

As one of the six founding members of the European Union, Germany signed   the Treaty of Rome on March 25, 1957, along with France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg establishing the foundation the European Economic Community (EEC) which has become the EU after the signing of Maastricht Treaty formally known as the Treaty on European Union, which was signed on February 7, 1992. Since then, the EU has grown seven times.

Denmark, Ireland, and the United Kingdom joined the EU in 1973; nevertheless, at the end of January 2020, the UK became the first member state to exit the union. Greece joined the EU in 1981, followed by Portugal and Spain in 1986, and Austria, Finland, and Sweden in 1995.

Following the eleven states that joined in 2004 to expand eastward, Bulgaria and Romania joined in 2007, and Croatia joined most recently in 2013.[3]

The Copenhagen Criteria:

The accession criteria, or Copenhagen criteria (after the European Council in Copenhagen in 1993 which defined them), are the essential conditions all candidate countries must satisfy to become a member state. These are:

• political criteria: stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;

• economic criteria: a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces;

• administrative and institutional capacity to effectively implement the rights and obligations of the EU and ability to take on the obligations of membership.

The Union’s capacity to absorb new members, while maintaining the momentum of European integration, is also an important consideration.

The EU reserves the right to decide when the country applying for the EU membership has met these criteria and when the EU is ready to accept the new member.[4]

A potential de facto Iron Curtain? :

Enlargement is vital for the future of the EU because without enlargement there is a risk for a new Iron Curtain.”In an insecure community with little wealth or economic progress, things would get extremely dangerous.  It is in all for the interests of candidate nations and the EU to make progress and speed up the process.

On the eve of the so-called great bang enlargement of 2004, which 10 nations, including seven former Soviet republics or satellite states, were given EU membership, the bloc marks 20 years since its largest ever enlargement. This event in itself is showing how the EU did not encounter any major expansion since 20 years which is quite warning.

The EU as it exists now would be divided by a “de facto Iron Curtain,”  meaning that the countries on the eastern side would have been targeted by “political and ideological attempts by the Kremlin to occupy them.

Currently, nine nations from the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe are in the queue to join the EU as full members. The application procedure to join the EU is extremely long and complicated, requiring applicants to fulfil specific criteria put down by the EU, such as substantial constitutional and judicial reforms.

While the EU’s dormant expansion policy has been given new life by Russia’s aggressive attack on  Ukraine, efforts to expedite the accession process face the risk of being blocked by more cautious member states.

Long delays in candidate nations’ integration, according to critics, are fuelling a sense of discontent with Brussels.[5]

Accession Challenges :

Accession negotiations are currently ongoing with Montenegro (since 2012), Serbia (since 2014), Albania (since 2020), North Macedonia (since 2020), Moldova (since 2024) and Ukraine (since 2024). Turkey started negotiations in October 2005, but talks have been effectively frozen since June 2018, when the European Council expressed concern over what it called “backsliding on the rule of law and on fundamental rights including the freedom of expression” in the country.[6]

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Georgia were granted official candidate status respectively in December 2022 and December 2023, but were asked to complete additional reforms before qualifying for the formal start of membership negotiations.[7]

Kosovo submitted an application for membership in December 2022. For Kosovo to be granted official candidate status, the Council will need to unanimously agree to start Kosovo’s accession process by requesting an opinion from the European Commission on its application. The EU however remains divided on its policy towards Kosovo, with five EU member states not recognizing its independence.[8]

Moreover, Armenia would submit an application for EU candidature by the latest autumn of 2024, according to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who made this announcement on March 5, 2024. Armenia can now apply to join the EU after the European Parliament confirmed on March 12, 2024, that it satisfies the requirements of Article 49 of the Maastricht Treaty.[9]

Though little has changed in the twenty years since the dream of membership was guaranteed to six western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo), not much has changed. The EU does not need to provide security assurances to the Balkan countries. NATO members include Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, and Kosovo; Bosnia and Kosovo are heavily represented in NATO.

It is a very different situation in the east of Europe, where countries like Ukraine, Moldova, and the Caucasus see EU membership as a stand-in for security guarantees because they are not protected by NATO.[10]

The Significance of the Russian-Ukrainian War:

The unprecedented conditions of the full-scale conflict In Ukraine with its related destruction and casualties marked the beginning of Ukraine’s EU admission process. In June 2022, the EU granted candidate status to Ukraine, demonstrating its swift approval of the country’s membership application and its resolve to integrate the war-torn nation.

The European Council then resolved to begin membership talks with Ukraine in December 2023, but only after that country had finished additional changes to strengthen the rule of law and good governance. Although the fighting makes entry more difficult, Ukraine can gradually achieve the requirements for admission.[11]

Expectedly, ordinary Ukrainians’ desire to join the EU sharply increased following the protests, Russia’s invasion of the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, and the annexation of Crimea. This desire to join the EU stems from a view of the bloc as a community of democratic principles and common values, more so than it is as a political and economic union. Along with their support for democracy, Ukrainians mobilized behind the notion that the EU is where Ukraine belongs.

To take a deeper look into the current situation, The data show an obvious rise in support for the EU, especially following Zelensky’s victory in 2019 and then again in the face of internal difficulties and external hostility in 2022. The declared aspiration of Ukrainians for European integration is emphasised by this figure. [12]

The wartime surge in support for EU membership marks a critical juncture in Ukraine’s European integration journey. It emphasizes how important the EU is to Ukrainians both practically and symbolically as a deterrent to Russian aggression and an autocratic form of government.

This adds nuance to the story of Ukraine’s desire to join the EU and implies that the union is more appealing than just the prospect of financial gain or security assurances. Rather, the allure of joining the EU feeds into a larger yearning for a wealthy, democratic future consistent with European principles.[13]

But worth mentioning that Ukraine will have a difficult time fulfilling the requirements to join the EU.  As prior to the conflict, when Ukraine began its EU accession process, its governance performance appeared to be lower than that of other post-communist Central and Eastern European nations. Compared to all but one of the ten current and prospective EU candidates, Ukraine scored extremely poorly on the governance index in 2023.

Thus, Ukraine faces the difficult task of enacting significant institutional changes during a war, especially in the areas of political governance, the judiciary, the rule of law, decentralization, oligarch influence reduction, and corruption combat. [14]

Simply, like any membership candidate, to bring its laws and standards into line with those of the EU in 35 policy areas, known as chapters, ranging from the free movement of goods through fisheries, taxation, energy and the environment to judicial rights and security. Each of the chapters must be negotiated to the satisfaction of all 27 existing EU members, making for a complex and drawn-out process. Hence, once Ukraine successfully does her homework, it will be ready to proceed with negotiations.[15]

After the Russian attacks in February 2022, Moldova went hand to hand with Ukraine and applied to join the EU in the following days and weeks. European Union leaders hastily formalized everything by June 2022. However, since then, things have proceeded more slowly in Kiev, and membership, if it comes, it may take years.

Even still, initiating the dialogue process is a powerful additional demonstration of solidarity with Ukraine beyond the financial assistance the EU has given, which officials peg at approximately $1007 billion (or 100 billion euros). Additionally, it’s a show of support for Moldova, a country that has had difficulties from Russia.

Notably, Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Moldova, a neighbour country, has had a number of crises that have occasionally given rise to concerns that Russia may target the nation as well. These crises have included stray missiles hitting its territory and an energy crisis brought on by Moscow cutting off gas supplies.

Along with Moldova, Ukraine is part of a long list of countries hoping to join the EU that have been left behind by Kyiv’s quick development. These countries include Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey.[16]

Notably, Enlargement is an effective strategy for promoting these reforms that is advantageous to the EU as well as the candidate nation. The EU’s influence in promoting Ukraine’s institutional development and offering significant incentives to comply with the accession requirements will increase as a result of the likelihood that Ukraine’s accession process will coincide with post-war reconstruction.[17]

Conclusion:

How and when Ukraine’s war with Russia ends and post-war reconstruction begins, as well as how the EU handles issues of governance, security, migration, trade, investment, the energy transition, decarbonisation, and the EU budget, will all have a significant impact on whether and when Ukraine joins the EU.

Luckily, the growing political movement could play a big role in the potential enlargement of the EU. The network of those who will politically support enlargement must expand, as does this political support. Moreover, It is obvious how expansion could be considered “the peace project in Europe and the EU as an instrument of peacebuilding in Europe,” given that Ukraine is at the centre of the continent’s largest military conflict since World War II. Hence, EU membership for Ukraine will be a key component of that process.

By 2030, Ukraine hopes to join, but not before completing numerous institutional and legal reforms. Steps to fight corruption are at the top of this intimidating list, which also includes significant changes to the court and public administration.

Works cited:

[1] https://www.deutschland.de/en/EU-Osterweiterung-2004-Wendepunkt-für-Europa

[2] https://emerging-europe.com/analysis/the-success-of-the-eus-2004-enlargement-must-drive-a-new-wave-of-expansion/

[3] https://www.britannica.com/topic/European-Union/The-Maastricht-Treaty

[4] https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/glossary_en#candidate-countries

[5] https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/04/29/european-union-must-enlarge-or-face-new-iron-curtain-president-michel-warns

[6] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/07/26/how-exactly-do-countries-join-the-eu/

[7] https://sarajevotimes.com/huge-historic-move-eu-grants-bosnia-and-herzegovina-candidate-status

[8] https://apnews.com/article/europe-kosovo-european-union-308669f8d15bc217ec047e5d9805b278

[9] https://neweasterneurope.eu/2024/04/29/high-time-for-armenias-euro-atlantic-integration/

[10] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/11/eu-new-members-viktor-orban-western-balkans

[11] https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/ukraines-path-european-union-membership-and-its-long-term-implications#footnote2_ddd0dsm

[12] https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/06/ukrainians-unwavering-path-toward-the-eu?lang=en

[13] https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/06/ukrainians-unwavering-path-toward-the-eu?lang=en

[14] https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/ukraines-path-european-union-membership-and-its-long-term-implications#footnote2_ddd0dsm

[15] https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-sets-out-on-long-path-to-eu-membership/7675241.html

[16] https://apnews.com/article/eu-membership-ukraine-moldova-russia-war-9e962398d75e44b6affa9a0cefbfb8b8

[17] https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/ukraines-path-european-union-membership-and-its-long-term-implications#footnote2_ddd0dsm