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Prospects for US-Italian relations in light of Trump’s arrival
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By: Abdelrahman Anwar
Research assistant in international affairs unit
With the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House after securing a second non-consecutive term, the U.S.-Italian relations may witness some shifts in their bilateral relations due to shared goals and sights between both governments, and also it is not that far to see a future disagreement between both states regarding the declared sharp economic policy of Trump that he wants to launch against China, Canada, Mexico, and even the EU, and as Italy is one of the prominent members in the European Union, it is expected to have a big role in dealing and confronting these policies, or even compromising about it.
So, this topic will examine the bilateral relations, features of cooperation, and motives for rapprochement between both countries, in an attempt to clarify the vision and directions of the two countries at the foreign policy level especially after Trump’s return.
Features of cooperation: –
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Firstly, the political cooperation:
US and Italy have friendly relations as they are partners and friends, they trust each other mutually, people of both countries have good ties as over seventeen million Americans say Italian heritage and the efforts of Italian-Americans make the United States more intense, prosperous, and more vibrant.
Prime Minister “Giorgia Meloni” wrote on “X”, congratulating Trump on his election victory: “On behalf of myself and the Italian government, I extend my most sincere congratulations to the President-elect of the United States, Donald Trump. Italy and the United States are two sister countries, bound by an unshakable alliance, shared values and a historic friendship. It is a strategic bond, and I am sure that we will now strengthen it even more. Good job, President.”[1]
Italian Foreign Minister “Antonio Tajani” said that Italy is working to strengthen bilateral relations with the United States and that transatlantic relations are the Italian government’s priority, so they will work with Trump to achieve this and discuss various issues, including NATO, he added “We remember that Italy is the country that provides the largest number of soldiers after the United States, but we will certainly have to make progress in European defense to ensure that there is a European pillar in addition to the American pillar”.[2]
Meloni visited Trump’s club in the beginning of this month in Mar-a-Logo, Florida, she was the second world leader to meet with Trump after winning the presidential race last November, she aimed to strengthen relations with him in every possible chance, Trump said in the sidelines of this dinner in his club “I’m here with a fantastic woman, the prime minister of Italy. It’s already caused a sensation in Europe, everyone around it, and we’re just having dinner together tonight”.[3]
He described her as “full of energy,” and added, “I got along very well with her”, Trump said he had a great meeting with Meloni on the sidelines of attending the reopening ceremony of the famous Notre Dame Cathedral, Meloni said “I think it is very important for a country like Italy, which has very strong relations with the United States, to show its willingness to continue and strengthen this relationship at a time when the challenges are global and interconnected”.[4]
The mutual admiration and praise between Trump and Meloni indicate that there will be a good understanding at the level of leaders that translates into close cooperation between the two countries during Trump’s presidency.
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Secondly, the economic cooperation:
Italy and US have a strong economic tie, and huge trade relations, both countries are members in the Group of seven (G7) for economic and financial cooperation, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), as they also bilaterally work together and through different international organizations.[5]
Both states are considered a good trade partners as United States exported $2.62B and imported $6.35B from Italy in October 2024, and the growth of exports from Italy to United States from 2017 to 2022 is worth $68.2B, and the growth of exports from United States to Italy in the same period is worth $25.9B, also United States-Italy mutual trade in goods and services surpassed a historical high of $126 billion in 2023. More than 440,000 jobs are supported by two-way foreign direct investment, which reached over $72 billion in 2022 and is the biggest non-EU market for Italian exports to the US.[6]
Biden traveled to Italy to meet Meloni and the Pope before the end of his term, and the White House said the visit highlighted the strength of the relationship between the two countries, the former US president thanked his Italian counterpart for her leadership of the G7 last year, all this could illustrate how good is the economic relations between both countries are strong.
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Thirdly, the military cooperation:
The military cooperation between both states is unshakable due to NATO membership, as Italy hosts approximately 30,000 U.S. service members, Department of Defense civilians, and their family members across five major base clusters throughout Italy at Aviano (air force); Vicenza and Livorno (army); and Sigonella, Gaeta, and Naples’ home port for the U.S. Navy Sixth Fleet, the US presence in Italy is the second largest permanent presence in Europe.[7]
Italian Defense Minister “Guido Crosetto” said in an interview with Il Foglio “The United States is a traditional ally of Italy: historic, stable and indispensable”, he added “I think about respecting agreements in general, and the way this friendship pact will be respected. We must understand that if we are friends, it means that we may face the same enemies, and do the things we have decided to do together and not separately. The first point, of course, is NATO”, emphasizing the concept of collective defense and commitment to NATO’s goals and requirements by increasing spending.[8]
Motives for rapprochement between the two countries: –
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Right-wing party understanding:
However, Trump is far more extremist than Meloni, she is still lucky to deal with a leader that represents nearly the same right-wing ideas as she has, they both advocate for some common goals that Roma under Meloni trying to reach such as preventing Migration and enhancing investment, Meloni is seen as a strong potential partner for Trump given her conservative positions and the stable right-wing coalition she has led in Italy since late 2022, but Trump is a pragmatic man, so Italy and Europe have to deal with him on that basis.
The right-wing populist policies of Trumpism may be the closest reason for these continuous attempts by Meloni to impress Trump, whose policies take a large part of Meloni’s admiration, this relation may become for Italy more important than its relations with its European allies, but the coming days will certainly clarify whether Meloni will use this rapprochement to serve Europe and play the role of savior for the continent, and the mediator who brings the US-European views closer in the current Trump period, or it will exploit that relationship to achieve national interest and benefits at the bilateral level only.
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MAGA and Great Roma policy:
Therefore, this rapprochement between the two presidents will be an ideological rapprochement based on the coalescence and twin ambitions and policies of the two right-populist leaders that aim to promote the national interest above any other interest.
Meloni focuses on populist rhetoric and does not hesitate to criticize left-wing European leaders, and seeks to find an independent Italian nation-state with strong allies abroad, similar to the tendency of the United States since 2010 to focus on the Indo-Pacific region as a region that constitutes strategic and geostrategic importance that makes it the most important region currently economically and politically.
So Meloni could use that relationship to the benefit of the nation-state rather than use it to mediate a rapprochement between Trump and the rest of Europe and NATO, thus abandoning Europe for the sake of its populist ally Trump, to launch Make Roma Great Again (MRGA) policies similar to Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again).
Challenges that may affect their relations: –
Meloni’s supporters hope the conservative Italian leader will be able to access Trump over his whole term and become a bridge between U.S. and Europe, based on that it could be understood the main challenges that Italy and Europe are going to face in Trump’s era.[9]
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NATO and EU:
Italy is committed to NATO alliance and see that it is crucial to support for the national security of Europe and the west, unlike President-elect Trump that does not like to engage much with allies and prefers an isolationist policy that puts the interests of the United States first. He is actually adopting an “America First” policy that will enable him to achieve the dream of MAGA. Therefore, Trump has many comments on the European Union and NATO, and it is not unlikely that in the coming days we will witness an American abandonment of them if they do not comply with Trump’s directives and demands, most notably his demands to increase European defense spending, he also intends to impose tariffs on European Union products.
The European Union and NATO countries are waiting for Meloni to play the role of mediator between them and Trump so that to make him do not abandon Europe defensively, considering that the United States is the first and largest contributor to NATO, otherwise the alliance will face the danger of dismantling or the balance of power in Europe will be in favor of Russia, and Washington’s abandonment of the European Union after it was the largest contributor to its establishment and continuation may lead to the fragility of the Union.
Tommaso Foti, Italy’s minister for European Union affair said that “Italy can serve as a diplomatic bridge between two worlds: the European Union and the United States,” and that illustrate that Meloni actually working on that by enhancing its relation with Trump.[10]
If Europe adopts a liberal approach in their domestic and foreign policies, there will be a contradiction between it and Meloni’s populist policies, so reaching a convergence of views among European countries will be the most realistic option for the European continent to get out of the impasse of the United States abandoning the defense of the continent, and abandoning its support at all levels.
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Unbalanced but not bad relations: