“Repositioning Al-Hudaydah And Maarrab”: Could The Balance Of Power Inside Yemen Be Changed

Hassnaa tamam

Since the beginning of the conflict in Yemen, there have been unresolved cases, as well as compliance with the agendas and agreements signed between the parties, most notably those relating to the implementation of the Stockholm Convention; to control the military presence in the city of Hodeida, which includes forces of all conflicting parties.

First: How the spectrum changed on the ground

On November12, some forces of the Arab Alliance announced their withdrawal from the perimeter of the port of Hodeida, controlled by the Houthi “Ansar Allah,” and the United Nations announced that the group had taken control of those positions.

Their redeployment is part of the decision to vacate the areas governed by the Stockholm Agreement; It is governed by an international agreement that makes it demilitarized and safe for civilians.

Meanwhile, clashes continued on all fronts in Yemen’s Marb province, weeks before the Hodeida changes. The Minister of Information of President Hadi’s government, Muammar Al-Ariani, revealed that a highly trained battalion equipped with weapons and military equipment had arrived in the city of Marb to engage in combat.

second: From Hudaydah to Sana’a what may happens?

Sana’a promises the facade of the parties with recent moves between the coalition forces’ desire to back, end the battle for the legitimate government, besides, the Houthi who want to keep Sana’a, even progress to wider areas, the transition of field clashes after Hodeida and Maarab to Sana’a, meaning that one side has achieved victory in favor of the

The Houthi attempt to rally and resolve the battle as soon as possible: There is no doubt that the movement on the ground and the change of control on the ground between the parties in Yemen, as well as the attacks and targeting, are the main features of the movement in Yemen at this time.

Therefore, the Houthi demand for Iran’s support is strongly predictable, on the other hand, to increase the targeted Houthi operations of neighboring States; To disperse their military efforts by protecting their borders instead of the Yemeni battlefield, which he began to do, attempt to target Khamis Masheet southwest of Saudi Arabia, and again target Abha Airport (November 17, 16) .

Intensive Arab and international meetings: As the situation has remained the same for a long time, a conservative resolution of the situation in favor of one of the parties will change the balance of power in Yemen. To rearrange their papers, this is supported by a US foreign announcement near the visit of the US envoy to Saudi Arabia and Jordan on a tour to talk about the situation in Yemen.

The Stockholm Agreement is at stake: There is no doubt that the restatement of the Stockholm Agreement, its terms, and the mechanism for its implementation and safeguards will be the talk of the Yemeni parties during this period, the legitimate forces will try to rely on the Political Committee for withdrawal and redeployment from Hodeida, as well as the United Nations envoy, to pressure and push the Houthis to commit themselves to the withdrawal.

The Houthi rely on the Committee’s statements of lack of coordination on this withdrawal to defuse the Convention once and for all, to weak the negotiations in any other directions that do not require it to change its position on the ground.

The talk of redistricting in Al-Hudaydah has given rise to a wide debate, but the ongoing redeployment of the Houthi leaders, and the targeting of the Houthi leaders confirm that what is being developed according to a strategic plan is based on the option on the ground to change the balance of power of the parties inside Yemen, given the intransigence of the situation in Yemen, and through a political solution by mobilizing the mediators of the conflict, pressure to re-implement the Stockholm agreement.