The Conflict Path Series In The Middle East And Africa Issue No.22 July 2023

Introduction:

Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of protracted conflicts; The way in which they interact, their longevity, the behaviour and demands of the perpetrators, the parties’ terms of settlement, the dynamism of which they are characterized, and the intensity of their competition reflect their complexity.

This complexity increases as these conflicts interact with global changes s interests become more overlapping and complex, and the challenges surrounding political settlements increase in order to increase the importance of careful follow-up and analysis of such interactions as to enable us to set the record straight for choosing the most appropriate policies and preparing for the scenarios presented, In this number, together with tracking regional conflicts, we are approaching their internal interlinkages and international and regional interaction.

The 22nd issue of the Shaf Centre’s monthly Conflict Trail Report highlights the Middle East and Africa arena of conflict States, tracking important issues, highlights and local, regional and international interactions. The report covers the conflict situation in 10 States (Ethiopia, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon and Mali)

Executive Summary

Before we shed light on developments in the situation of conflict in the regions to be dealt with, the situation of conflict in the 10 States of concern is broadly presented before proceeding to the detailed report.

Ethiopia:

The situation in Ethiopia is witnessing a somewhat detente, whether at the political or economic level, especially the issue of the Renaissance Dam, which is stuck in rigid negotiations that did not lead to anything new until the summit of Sudan’s neighbouring countries came to open the door to serious negotiations between Ethiopia and Egypt. The Ethiopian side pledged not to prejudice the water rights of Egypt and Sudan, and Addis Ababa is witnessing a state of waiting for a fourth filling of the Renaissance Dam, which will lead to resolving the matter between these parties, and knowing the intentions of Abi Ahmed, who pledged to respect Egypt’s rights in the Nile waters, and will reveal the truth of the matter, and whether it was These pledges are serious, or a new ploy to fill a fourth dam away from external condemnations, and buy more time to achieve hidden intentions, as events during the coming period will reveal all the cards, and put points above letters.

Sudan:

The situation in Sudan is still intertwined and complicated, as clashes occur from time to time, and in light of a cease-fire truce that is breached from time to time. However, regional and international mediation efforts to resolve the crisis are accelerating in leaps and bounds, and highlight the extent of solidarity and solidarity among willing African countries. In ending this bloody conflict, Egypt’s adoption of the role of the initiator and hosting of summits such as the summit of Sudan’s neighboring countries and the meeting of freedom and change highlight the extent of the balanced Egyptian desire to end the cycle of this conflict. In order to preserve the security and stability of Sudan and the relief of the Sudanese people, and accordingly, all eyes are looking forward to the end of this war that has depleted the country’s capabilities, in light of relentless efforts to stop this suffering. War, because in the end the matter depends on the extent of the will of the two parties, and the declaration of their true desire for a solution.

Somalia:

The challenges facing the Somali scene are increasing, both at the internal level with its political, economic and security levels, and with its interactions between them. Lasanod, which is worsening, does not receive enough attention, and is about to enter its fifth month, without sufficient efforts to solve it. These challenges increase tensions in the Somali neighboring countries, and thus led to a state of relative preoccupation with the scene in Somalia.

Iraq:

Despite the profound repercussions of the crisis of burning a copy of the Holy Qur’an in Sweden and Denmark, there are many international efforts to stop such practices and realize the extent of the negative impact of these events on international relations in general and on sectarian peace in particular in multi-sectarian and ethnic countries such as Iraq. .

Yemen:

Perhaps the most accurate description of what Yemen is witnessing at this stage is that it is living in a state of neither war nor peace, after a

truce, which was extended for several months, continued after announcing that it could not be renewed last October, through relative calm, punctuated by some armed confrontations. From one place to another.

South Sudan:

South Sudan has not witnessed a remarkable development in the political process, except for the announcement of the head of state, “Salva Kiir Mayardit,” his candidacy in the upcoming presidential elections, and the opposition party headed by “Riek Machar” announced its readiness for the electoral process, and the repercussions of the Sudanese crisis continue on South Sudan with the desire The immediate last resort in stopping the conflict and fighting in a sustainable manner, especially with the effects of the war on the intolerable humanitarian situation and the increasing flows of refugees and returnees in light of the dwindling humanitarian aid to these people, and at the security level the state is still suffering from cases of instability and various violent incidents, as well as incidents of gender-based violence, On the other hand, South Sudan is witnessing several attempts at the economic level to develop this sector and to establish various partnerships to support economic growth.

Syria:

The Syrian arena is witnessing great tension and polarization, behind it, first, the hidden tension between Turkey and Syria, which caused the freezing of the Russian mediation file between the Syrian regime and

Turkey, which in turn was reflected in the Turkish escalation in northern Syria after weeks of calm, and secondly; Air frictions between Russia and the United States, which may herald more uncalculated escalation between the two parties on Syrian soil, and thirdly, the Israeli-Iranian confrontation in Syria, which further complicates the security scene of the state.

As for the political level; It is noted that the Syrian political process has been frozen since Syria’s return to the Arab League, and no serious steps have yet been taken within the framework of implementing the outcomes of the Jeddah and Amman consultative meetings that were held to discuss ways to solve the Syrian crisis politically.

Libya:

It is expected that the political process in Libya will inflame to reach its full extent in the coming weeks, following the adoption of the Libyan parliament on the roadmap for the implementation of the election laws emanating from the 6 + 6 committee. However, any real move to resolve the Libyan crisis remains dependent in the first place on the sincere desire of all Libyan parties to give up any personal interests, and move forward to meet the aspirations of the Libyan people to end the transitional period and go to elections, according to fair laws.

Lebanon:

It can be said that the political vacuum in Lebanon is a scourge, affecting all sectors of the state, and not only that, but also the sovereignty of the Lebanese state, and this lies in the European Union’s decision to prevent the deportation of Syrian refugees to their homeland, and this is something that it does not dare to do with Any country, for example; Turkey, although Lebanon is not a country of asylum, and contains the largest number of refugees, and the political vacancy also had negative effects, which had a wide repercussion on the economic and security situation in the country.

Mali:

It is likely that the “ISIS Desert” group and the “Nasrat al-Islam and Muslims” group will continue and escalate their attacks on government forces and the population, especially after the withdrawal of the United Nations Peace Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), as happened after the withdrawal of French forces in August 2022. Fears also increase. From announcing the termination of the 2015 Algeria Peace Agreement signed between the Malian government and the movements of the Azawad region (located in the north of the country), given that the mission was supervising the negotiations between the two parties to activate the agreement, which threatens to ignite the fuse of war between the Malian army and Wagner’s mercenaries on the one hand, and the Azawad movements Armed on the other hand, which will seek the right to self-determination for the Azawad region.