The Conflict Path Series In The Middle East And Africa Issue No.29 February 2024

Introduction:

Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of protracted conflicts; The way in which they interact, their longevity, the behaviour and demands of the perpetrators, the parties’ terms of settlement, the dynamism of which they are characterized, and the intensity of their competition reflect their complexity.

This complexity increases as these conflicts interact with global changes s interests become more overlapping and complex, and the challenges surrounding political settlements increase in order to increase the importance of careful follow-up and analysis of such interactions as to enable us to set the record straight for choosing the most appropriate policies and preparing for the scenarios presented, In this number, together with tracking regional conflicts, we are approaching their internal interlinkages and international and regional interaction.

The 29^th  issue of the Shaf Centre’s monthly Conflict Trail Report highlights the Middle East and Africa arena of conflict States, tracking important issues, highlights and local, regional and international interactions. The report covers the conflict situation in 10 States (Ethiopia, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon and Mali)

Executive Summary

Before we shed light on developments in the situation of conflict in the regions to be dealt with, the situation of conflict in the 10 States of concern is broadly presented before proceeding to the detailed report.

Ethiopia:

When opportunism is coupled with arrogance, the result is the loss of rights and the violation of humanitarian laws. This is how the Ethiopian government operates, as it pursues its interests without considering the fates of the peoples. Regions that are integral to the security and stability of the state are left to suffer poverty and hunger, and they endure the harshest forms of injustice and tyranny, bordering on massacres. Therefore, it is evident to everyone the intentions with which the Ethiopian side deals with the rights of others. The stalled file of the Renaissance Dam is a testament to this. Considering the low security situation in the country, there are concerns about the escalation of violence and the violation of the rights of citizens. Such actions would drag Ethiopia into a dark tunnel of tensions and consequences that would not bode well for the country.

Sudan:

Current developments indicate that Sudan will remain in armed conflict in the absence of a wise civilian political force leading the country towards security and stability. The interests of Hamdok and Burhan will not align internally or externally. Sudan will continue to suffer the consequences

of re-entering armed conflict. If the armed confrontations between the army and the Rapid Support Forces persist for a relatively long period, they may escalate into a comprehensive civil war, especially given Sudan’s legacy of civil war since independence. This would allow tribal or ethnic forces to intervene by supporting one party according to their interests, fueling the continuation of the fighting, as seen in the Darfur region.

Somalia:

Somalia has witnessed significant developments on both the internal and external fronts. Internally, debates persist regarding the implementation of the agreement between Ethiopia and Somali territory, as well as amendments to the federal constitution. However, there has been significant economic and security progress, with the containment of the terrorist group Al-Shabaab in several regions, their elimination, and ongoing efforts to launch the second phase of military operations against them. Nevertheless, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating due to the spread of the cholera epidemic. Externally, Somalia’s relations with other countries have evolved, leading to agreements in military/security and legal fields.

Iraq:

Following a series of mutual attacks, armed factions aligned with Iran, under Iranian directives, declared a halt to their military operations against U.S. military bases. This announcement comes despite armed groups’ eagerness to retaliate against Americans following their recent attacks on militants and headquarters west and south of Baghdad. Meanwhile, the bilateral military committee between Baghdad and Washington continues discussions on the timetable for ending the international coalition’s mission.

The international community looks forward to finding a peaceful and sustainable solution, with decisions regarding the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq stemming from diplomatic dialogues that respect Iraq’s sovereignty and achieve a balance of common interests.

Yemen:

Despite previous indicators suggesting peace in Yemen before the American and British attacks, the prospects are now hindered by strong Houthi stubbornness. The Houthi military operations against planes and ships during this period pose a clear and explicit challenge. The possibility of achieving a secure environment for peace in Yemen remains largely elusive due to Houthi actions, resulting in violence and immense danger. This is evident after monitoring all Houthi activities in the Red Sea at the end of each month and anticipating regional and international reactions to these violent acts.

South Sudan:

South Sudan is grappling with a lack of security due to the repercussions of the war in Sudan, affecting many state agencies. Significant instability in security activities in South Sudan is expected due to deteriorating conditions in the north. The deteriorating security situation and frequent clashes across the country are likely to impact upcoming elections. Most displaced people in South Sudan suffer worsening conditions in camps due to the lack of medicines and food, coupled with the spread of diseases and epidemics in many camps. There are urgent pleas from medical committees to address the plight of the displaced.

Syria:

It seems that the Syrian regime does not intend to adhere to the stepby-step policy agreed upon in the framework of Arab normalization with Syria. This is evident from the political deadlock in Syrian-Arab rapprochement files. The Syrian crisis, politically, requires a settlement that includes all factions. However, the Syrian regime maintains its permanent allies, Russia and Iran.

The security situation in Syria continues to worsen over time, with the country experiencing war since 2011 across five fronts in a similar conflict spectrum. The Syrian government and Russian forces are fighting armed opposition groups in the northwest. Simultaneously, ISIS intensifies its attacks nationwide, Turkey confronts Kurdish-led forces in the northeast, local Kurdish tribal forces fight back, and the United States and Israel oppose Iranian-affiliated forces

Libya:

The UN envoy, Abdullah Battahli, continues his efforts to bring Libyan leaders to a single negotiation table to agree on a roadmap for the electoral process and to end the political division. However, these efforts face obstacles and conflicting conditions from the involved parties, potentially leading to their failure. The parliament insists that Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah not participate in the dialogue, insisting on the necessity of forming a new government to prepare for elections. Dbeibah, on the other hand, refuses to resign and requires fair laws allowing everyone to run for elections. The evident contradictions among the parties involved in the Libyan crisis highlight the difficulty of proceeding with the electoral path. Doubts are increasing about the possibility of reaching agreements between the main factions and genuine intentions to find a solution.

Lebanon:

Israeli leaders and politicians seem convinced of the inevitability of Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the Lebanese borders to the north of the Litani River. Lebanon would deploy its forces in the south alongside the UN peacekeeping forces (UNIFIL) as a fundamental condition for avoiding a large-scale military operation in southern Lebanon. This operation aims to forcefully achieve Israel’s demand, and Tel Aviv is working to garner Western support, especially from the United States, for its acceptance. The real debate lies in the timing of the potential military operation in southern Lebanon. Will Tel Aviv open two fronts simultaneously if agreed upon, amid the ongoing war in Gaza and escalating tensions in the West Bank? Or is the operation postponed until the end of the war in Gaza, while continuing to target southern Lebanon and destroy Hezbollah’s military infrastructure?

Mali:

February witnessed a continuation of armed group attacks against the Malian army, linked by analysts to the neglect of securing the central region, where most attacks against Malian forces occur. There is a focus on the northern regions to regain control of the Azawad region, alongside ongoing tensions between the Azawad movements and Malian forces, following Mali’s withdrawal from the 2015 Algiers Agreement. This situation may signal a repeat of the 2012 civil war, but with greater intensity due to the instability in the Sahel region as a whole. Additionally, the possibility of Tuareg involvement across the region and the engagement of Niger and

Burkina Faso due to a joint defense agreement pose threats to national unity, prolonging and intensifying the conflict, and worsening the already complicated security and humanitarian situation.