Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of protracted conflicts; The way in which they interact, their longevity, the behaviour and demands of the perpetrators, the parties’ terms of settlement, the dynamism of which they are characterized, and the intensity of their competition reflect their complexity.
This complexity increases as these conflicts interact with global changes s interests become more overlapping and complex, and the challenges surrounding political settlements increase in order to increase the importance of careful follow-up and analysis of such interactions as to enable us to set the record straight for choosing the most appropriate policies and preparing for the scenarios presented, In this number, together with tracking regional conflicts, we are approaching their internal interlinkages and international and regional interaction.
The 31st issue of the Shaf Centre’s monthly Conflict Trail Report highlights the Middle East and Africa arena of conflict States, tracking important issues, highlights and local, regional and international interactions. The report covers the conflict situation in 10 States (Ethiopia, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon and Mali)
Executive Summary
Before we shed light on developments in the situation of conflict in the regions to be dealt with, the situation of conflict in the 10 States of concern is broadly presented before proceeding to the detailed report.
Ethiopia:
There is a state of relative calm in Ethiopia with the continuation of some tensions that some Ethiopian regions are suffering from, and the decline in the level of relations between the Mogadishu government and its counterpart in Addis Ababa as a reaction to the agreement that the latter concluded with Somaliland, until the matter reached the point of expelling the Ethiopian ambassador. If Abiy Ahmed continues this path, Somali-Ethiopian relations may reach the point of rupture, if the latter retracts its decision.
Sudan:
The situation in Sudan is going from bad to worse, and the intensity of the bloody clashes is escalating day after day, between the army and the Rapid Support Forces on the one hand, and on the other hand between the Rapid Support Forces and civilians. Developments in the current situation indicate that Sudan will remain in its armed conflict, in the absence of a strong force. A wise civil politician will lead the country towards security and stability. The interests of Hemedti and Al-Burhan will not converge, whether at the internal or external level, and Sudan will continue to suffer for periods of time from the consequences of the country’s entry into armed conflict again. Therefore, the solution to the Sudanese crisis will depend on overcoming all internal and external obstacles, and coordinating All international efforts, meeting the urgent humanitarian needs of the population; Diplomatic engagement is necessary; To achieve lasting peace and prevent further suffering in Sudan.
Somalia:
We find that the attacks and bombings of the terrorist Al-Shabaab movement and efforts to confront them still dominate the internal scene of Somalia, in addition to Somali piracy activities. The security situation is still unstable. On the economic level, Somalia seeks to develop the economic infrastructure by attracting international investments. As for the external scene, the Somali president may seek to develop Somalia’s foreign relations with all countries, whether neighboring or others. With the aim of developing the country’s economy and strengthening efforts to confront the terrorist Al-Shabaab movement.
Iraq:
The current escalation in the region could negatively affect Iraq in several ways. First, the tension may lead to increased political and security instability in Iraq, negatively affecting the daily lives of citizens and putting infrastructure at risk. Second, escalation may inflame sectarian and ethnic tensions within Iraq, increasing internal tensions and impeding the process of national unity and reconciliation. Finally, tension may lead to a negative impact on the Iraqi economy, whether through rising oil prices, disrupting foreign investments, or deteriorating economic conditions in general. Therefore, the Iraqi government and concerned international parties must make the necessary efforts to calm the situation and work to achieve stability and peace in the region.
Also, by reviewing the positive results of the Turkish President’s visit to Iraq, and signing constructive agreements between the two countries, the strategic development path constitutes an important step towards enhancing economic cooperation and sustainable development in Iraq, and with a focus on achieving political stability and strengthening regional relations, joint efforts between Iraq and Turkey will lead to To open new horizons for cooperation and rapprochement between the two countries, and these steps also reflect promising progress towards building sustainable and fruitful relations that benefit the two peoples, and enhance cooperation and solidarity in the region in general.
Yemen:
Although there were previous indications before these American and British attacks and strikes that suggested that peace in Yemen would not be approaching, this is collided with strong Houthi intransigence through Houthi military operations towards aircraft and ships in a clear and explicit manner during this previous period, so the possibility of a safe environment exists. In which peace prevails in Yemen, it remains an impossible hope to a great extent due to the Houthi actions resulting in violence and the endless danger that appears after monitoring all the Houthi actions in the Red Sea at the end of this month and every month and the expected reactions regionally and internationally in response to those violent actions.
South Sudan:
South Sudan is still facing many challenges on the political, economic, and security fronts, especially in light of the escalating tensions against the backdrop of the raging Sudanese war and the massive destruction and catastrophic repercussions it caused that have left their mark on the economy of the state of South Sudan and its security stability. Therefore, it is expected that these economic crises will affect The lack of security and political instability affects the upcoming electoral process at the end of the year, which requires the need to overcome these conditions in order to ensure the achievement of fair elections through which a peaceful transfer of power can occur and the country returns to economic recovery and political stability in light of the presence of a government that assumes power legitimately after reliable elections.
Syria:
It appears, from tracking developments in the situation in Syria, that the issue has not stagnated even after Syria returned to the Arab League. The scene confirms that the crisis will continue in the short term, and perhaps even the medium term, given the continuing state of internal fighting between separate fronts whose interests differ from Each other, in addition to the continued external interference in the country’s affairs, whether by Iran, Russia, Turkey, or the United States. There is no doubt that the continuation of this situation will lead to a further deterioration of the economic and humanitarian conditions, the consequences of which will be borne only by the Syrian people.
Libya:
There is no doubt that the political process will change after the resignation of the UN envoy to Libya, Abdullah Batelli, and the receipt of the American, Stephanie Khoury, who will be the acting head of the mission, but no one is aware whether the change will be positive or negative, especially since Libya is living An unprecedented political stagnation, and this situation is a fertile environment for the growth of any military escalation to impose rules of the game on the ground and the formation of new alliances. Perhaps the scene is headed for many events unless there is an urgent, effective and rapid political initiative that suggests resorting to alternative options, in the event that the bodies are not involved. The ruling political system is in a comprehensive political dialogue, and if this does not happen, there is a greater threat than ever of the outbreak of military operations, specifically in the capital, Tripoli.
Lebanon:
The French initiative, entitled “Repositioning Hezbollah,” which includes easing border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, will have the same fate as its predecessor, which was put forward in January. Hezbollah will not hold any discussions, except by declaring a ceasefire in Gaza. Likewise, as for European aid to Lebanon, it is nothing but a pressure card on Lebanon. To freeze the Syrian refugee file.
Mali:
The security situation in the country is becoming more deteriorating with the increase in violence, and the jihadists renewing their war by kidnapping civilian hostages to re-impose influence, in addition to the increasing severity of security incidents between the Malian army and Mauritanian citizens, which has caused a diplomatic crisis between the two countries, in conjunction with the worsening humanitarian situation, and the presence of… A deep political crisis represented by the failure of the transitional authorities to fulfill their obligations to hand over power to civilians on March 26, and to instead announce that they will not give way to civilian rule before the country is finally stabilized, with the recent suspension of the activities of political parties and associations, in a move that may cast more ambiguity on the situation. The future of democracy in the country.
