Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of long-standing conflicts, reflecting the way they interact, their duration, the behavior and demands of the actors, the conditions of the parties to settle them, the dynamism that characterizes them, the intensity of their competition, and the complexity of their character.
This complexity increases in light of the interaction of these conflicts with global changes, as the interests of actors become more overlapping and complex, and the size of the challenges surrounding political settlements increases, so that the importance of careful follow-up of these interactions and analysis increases in a way that enables us to set the record straight to choose the most appropriate policies and prepare for the scenarios presented, and in this issue, in addition to tracking regional conflicts, we approach their internal entanglements and international and regional interaction around them.
The thirty-ninth issue of the monthly report on the conflict tracker, issued by “SHAF center”, sheds light on the arena of conflict countries in the Middle East and Africa, and we track important issues in them, the most prominent developments, and local, regional and international interactions, and the report includes the conflict situation in ten countries, as follows (Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, and Mali).
Report overview
Before shedding light on the developments in the conflict situation in the regions in question, we present in general the conflict situations in the ten countries of interest during the month of October, before moving on to the detailed report.
Ethiopia:
The step taken by the Ethiopian forces to attack Somali military sites may provoke the Somali side, which may hinder the reconciliation agreement concluded between the governments of Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, but if this agreement enters into reality, it may have serious consequences on the security and stability of the Horn of Africa, if Abiy Ahmed does not take into account the security and safety of the region. In this regard, there is a question about the upcoming Ethiopian moves and what will the reconciliation agreement will lead to, whether success or failure, in addition to the issue of the Ethiopian dam, which may be at risk of collapse due to the geological nature of an area that witnesses frequent earthquakes.
Sudan:
The year 2024 was a tragic year – in the full sense of the word – for the Sudanese people, as clashes and massacres have increased, the situation has worsened in various parts of the country, diseases and epidemics have spread, many cities and vital areas have been destroyed, in addition to the displacement of millions of people from their homes, and the Sudanese economy has suffered a sharp decline in production and growth, in light of the continuing security and political crises, so the future of the Sudanese war carries with it great challenges, but hope still exists in Achieving peace and stability in the country; therefore, efforts must be concerted to find radical solutions to the conflict and ensure a better future for Sudan’s future generations.
Somalia:
Somalia will witness political and security developments during the new year, which may contribute to its development, as the Security Council’s endorsement of the establishment of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) may contribute to significantly weakening Al-Shabaab Movement, in addition to delivering humanitarian aid, monitoring human rights violations and ensuring accountability, and with regard to the agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia, it was internationally welcomed, specifically by the United States, as it came after months of escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa region, and externally, witnessing Somalia’s foreign relations have developed significantly, and some countries have cancelled Somalia’s debts, such as France and Russia.
Iraq:
Iraq stands on the threshold of a stage of relative stability, as the country witnessed many political, economic and security events that formed milestones in its trail, from a political point of view, Baghdad succeeded during the month of December in deepening its bilateral relations with several countries, most notably Turkey, the Sultanate of Oman, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Syria, through political agreements and memoranda of understanding in the security and diplomatic fields, which paved the way for broader economic cooperation. From an economic point of view, Iraq has achieved a victory Chaired by the Executive Board of the Arab Investment Company for the year 2025, and this was a prominent diplomatic step that returned Iraq to this position after an absence of more than 30 years, and Baghdad succeeded in signing an agreement with Italy to enhance comprehensive bilateral cooperation in the economic and tourism fields, which is in the interest of the Iraqi economy, and on the security level, the Iraqi security forces have played a pivotal role in arresting many terrorist elements and stopping their explosive activities, by constantly intensifying their various operations to cleanse the state of terrorist organizations that destabilize their internal stability and threaten their national security.
Yemen:
We find that during the month of December 2024, the efforts of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council continue to support and strengthen the pillars of state institutions in Yemen, especially at the economic and security levels, in the midst of a critical international and regional situation, with all international and regional partners continuing to provide all means of support and cooperation to revive the economic, financial and development situation in Yemen in a way that alleviates the suffering experienced by the Yemeni people, and therefore it is expected that the state of uncertainty in the Yemeni arena will continue in 2025, especially In light of the Houthi escalation, which has turned Yemen into another regional arena of conflict, and the Israeli strategy that is working to liquidate all elements of the axis of resistance, including the Houthi group, this is reinforced by the lack of real international and regional pressure capable of containing the crisis in the Middle East, which is directly reflected on the situation in Yemen.
South Sudan:
South Sudan suffers from many challenges, including the increase in the number of refugees and its inability to absorb them, due to the economic crises it is going through, in light of this, the United Nations announced that it seeks to raise $468 million in order to support refugees and host communities in South Sudan during the year 2025, and their suffering is renewed with the annual floods, as the lowlands turned into lakes that flooded homes, and forced thousands to displace, and the continuous postponement of elections weakens the democratic transition process, thus preventing wider popular participation in the political process, thus maintaining the status quo, preventing tangible progress.
Syria:
The year 2024 can be summarized for Syria in that it was a year of challenges and fluctuations, as the Syrian state was an arena for regional and international competition, and it also suffered from the consequences of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, where Israeli attacks and strikes on Syrian cities increased, all of which led to obstructing Syria’s integration with its Arab surroundings, as hoped after its return to the Arab League, and led to a further deterioration in the catastrophic economic conditions suffered by the Syrians, and the final result of these features and data was the overthrow of the regime of former President Bashar al-Assad.
As for the new year 2025, it can be said that it is the year of self-determination for the Syrian state, as it is the year of answering many questions that will determine the future of the Syrian crisis, including: how will the map of regional and international influence sharing in Syria, especially between Turkey and Israel, and what is the shape of the relationship between the new US administration led by Donald Trump and the new Syrian administration headed by the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which is classified as terrorist on US lists, Ahmed Al-Shara, and what is the fate of the Kurdish issue in light of developments Inside Syria?
Accordingly, four main issues can be identified that will shape the features and data of the year 2025: the Kurdish issue and Turkey’s handling of it after Assad’s departure, the Israeli ground incursion into Syrian territory in violation of the disengagement agreement, dealing with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and its leader, and the issue of economic sanctions on Syria and the associated file of reconstruction of Syria and the return of Syrian refugees from various countries of the world.
Hence, it seems that 2025, for the Syrian crisis, will be the year of determining the path and not the year of the solution, as the crisis is likely to continue, due to the presence of a number of outstanding issues, which will need more time to be settled, whether they are related to the interactions inside Syria or linked to the map of regional and international influence in Syria, while the new year is expected to witness several understandings on Syria and its regime, which will succeed the regime of former President Bashar al-Assad, especially with the assumption of the US president-elect Donald Trump, his presidential duties on January 20, and therefore 2025 will be the critical juncture that will determine the fate of the Syrian state, but it will not be a decisive year.
Libya:
The Libyan crisis in December witnessed many developments that reflect a continuous escalation in the political, economic and military files, the most prominent of which is the adoption of new efforts by the African Union to revive “national reconciliation” through the visit of the President of the African Commission, Denis Sassou Nguesso, to Tripoli, but there are doubts about the ability of these initiatives to achieve tangible results, in light of the ongoing political divisions between local forces.
On the political level, differences also continued, regarding the formation of a unified government and the date of holding elections, reflecting the continuation of institutional crises that prevent a final political solution, while there were active diplomatic moves, as a Libyan delegation in Damascus discussed issues related to migration and energy, reflecting the escalation of international diplomacy in the region.
On the other hand, the escalation of economic issues in Libya reflects the depth of corruption and manipulation of reconstruction projects, talk about the lack of transparency and control over those projects, and Dabaiba’s hints about huge financial excesses, reflects a state of economic chaos in the country, and in parallel with this, conflicts continue over sovereign positions, such as disputes over the presidency of the Audit Bureau, which have entered into political conflict between various parties, these developments indicate that the Libyan crisis may remain complex during 2025, as the absence of Alignment between local forces, while increasing regional and international interventions that may negatively affect the chances of sustainable solutions.
Lebanon:
Lebanon seems to be on the threshold of a crucial stage, which may witness major changes in the political and military aspects, with the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which is considered the strongest ally of Hezbollah, the party is exposed to a logistical and strategic blow that does not enhance its influence inside the country, and may lead to a rearrangement of the political scene, on the other hand, the statement of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nabih Berri, expresses cautious optimism, regarding the end of the presidential vacuum, with the approach of the January 2025 session, which opens prospects for possible political stability, if investment is made Lebanon may have a rare opportunity to reshape its political institutions, ease military pressures, and begin to restore its regional and international role, so the next few months will be pivotal, as the future depends on the consensus of political forces and their desire to turn crises into a stepping stone towards stability and development.
Mali:
The state of crisis in Mali is increasing, and the series of armed conflicts and violence does not stop, whether with the Tuareg or extremist groups, especially with the killing of such a large number of rebel leaders, which is a warning of a strong response from the Tuareg rebels, and the kidnapping of the leader of the Tijani order reflects the depth of the real security crisis that Mali is going through, which is becoming increasingly complex, so there remains an urgent need to intensify political dialogue and strengthen national consensus to achieve peace and stability in the Republic of Mali.
