Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of long-standing conflicts, reflecting the way they interact, their duration, the behavior and demands of the actors, the conditions of the parties to settle them, the dynamism that characterizes them, the intensity of their competition, and the complexity that it is characterized by.
This complexity increases in light of the interaction of these conflicts with global changes, as the interests of actors become more overlapping and complex, and the challenges surrounding political settlements increase, so that the importance of careful follow-up of these interactions and analysis increases in a way that enables us to set the record straight to choose the most appropriate policies and prepare for the scenarios presented, and in this issue, in addition to tracking regional conflicts, we approach their internal entanglements and international and regional interaction around them.
The fortieth issue of the monthly report on the course of conflicts, issued by “SHAF Center”, sheds light on the arena of conflict countries in the Middle East and Africa, and we track important issues in them, the most prominent developments, and local, regional and international interactions, and the report includes the conflict situation in ten countries, as follows (Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, and Mali).
Report overview
Before shedding light on the developments of the conflict in the regions addressed, we present in general the conflict situations in the ten countries of interest before moving on to the detailed report.
Ethiopia:
What Ethiopia is going through from the series of earthquakes and continuous volcanoes, which caused material losses in the facilities, may lead to affecting the Ethiopian dam and causing cracks in it, and the visit of the Somali president indicates a new beginning to raise the level of relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, and it is possible that the coming period will witness the intensification of diplomatic efforts, through various visits, and thus the reconciliation agreement will come into force, and this path may be stumbled upon if other tensions occur.
Sudan:
The Sudanese army’s recapture of the headquarters in Khartoum and the city of Wad Madani is a strategic victory for the Sudanese army, as this step not only represents the restoration of vital sites, but also reflects the ability of the armed forces to resolve the battle and restore security in the missing areas, in addition to the strength of the national will and the ability of the armed forces to protect the country’s sovereignty and restore security and stability, and these victories are not limited to recovering territory only, but represent an important step towards ending chaos and consolidating state authority. As the military progress of the army continues, the hope remains for achieving lasting peace and rebuilding Sudan on the foundations of unity, justice and development.
Somalia:
It is clear that Somalia, at the beginning of 2025, is moving towards strengthening its internal stability, through cooperation with its international partners, whether at the level of combating terrorism, or by providing humanitarian and development support, and the strengthening of relations with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, the United States and other countries reflects Somalia’s desire to strengthen its regional and international standing, contribute to achieving sustainable development, and create a safer environment for the Somali people.
Iraq:
The Iraqi state witnessed many political, economic and security events that formed milestones in its course during the month of January, at the political level, Baghdad succeeded during this month in deepening its bilateral relations several countries, most notably Turkey, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, through agreements and memoranda of understanding in the security and diplomatic fields, which paved the way for broader economic cooperation. Alongside Iraq’s ongoing efforts to persuade pro-Iranian Iraqi factions to lay down their arms and join the official security forces, Baghdad’s willingness to help calm tensions between Washington and Tehran. Economically, we find that the economic improvement witnessed by Baghdad during the month of January lies in the increase in the volume of investments from different countries, especially in the fields of trade and industry, energy, infrastructure, communications and technology, and this came as a result of building balanced relations with friendly countries, which is in the interest of the economy and serves the Iraqi people. On the security front, we find that the Iraqi security forces played an important role in combating terrorist organizations during the month, according to the almost daily arrests and killing of ISIS members by carrying out various operations throughout Iraq, to cleanse the state of all terrorist organizations that threaten its national security and destabilize its internal stability.
Yemen:
The Yemeni crisis during the month of January 2025 witnessed a number of pivotal developments, perhaps the most prominent of which is the classification of the United States under its new administration led by “Trump” as a foreign terrorist organization, which the Yemeni government considered an important measure that will significantly change the course of the crisis in Yemen by restricting the influence of the Houthis through the financial and economic pressures that will result from this measure, and on the other hand, the Houthi group continues its violations against Yemeni civilians, including bombing, kidnapping and abuse, as well as violations against UN officials and diplomats, at a time when tireless diplomatic efforts continue by representatives of the Yemeni government in various international and regional forums and events to mobilize support for the government’s position.
South Sudan:
It is noted that the circle of disputes between Sudan and South Sudan is expanding, both in terms of border disputes between the two countries and against a backdrop of citizens who were killed in Khartoum, and therefore fears are raised that the dispute will widen further, at a time when the two countries will not bear other burdens, in light of the state of instability it suffers from, especially Sudan, which is ravaged by the state of conflict that is approaching two years, but at the political level, Egypt still supports Juba, even after the Government of South Sudan ratified the Entebbe Agreement, despite Cairo’s rejection of that agreement, which is customary in Egyptian policy, which has never hesitated to support its brothers and help them in their various crises at all levels.
Syria:
It seems that this year carries with it many variables that may occur in the Syrian crisis, in the coming months, as the political scene is completely different, with the inauguration of the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham Ahmed Al-Shara as interim president of Syria, and the sanctions file began to stagnate, after the European Union agreed to suspend some of them, but there is no doubt that the fate of this file is linked to the interactions of the transitional political process that will appear its features during the next stage, as for security, it seems that Syria may be heading towards a real crisis, especially regarding the fate of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Libya:
In January, Libya witnessed several developments, most notably the appointment of Ghanaian Hanna Serwaa Tetteh as the new UN envoy to Libya. Tetteh is the tenth envoy to lead the UN mission since its inception in 2011, reflecting the complexity of the Libyan crisis, which has eluded UN solutions throughout this period. Despite Tetteh’s considerable experience, the structural challenges in the Libyan scene, coupled with the persistence of international divisions over the Libyan file, make her task one of the most complex and difficult.
Lebanon:
In the midst of the prominent developments witnessed by Lebanon during January, it can be said that the country is entering a pivotal stage that may represent an opportunity to restore its stability and sovereignty, as the election of a new president and the appointment of a new government constitute a glimmer of hope, however, great challenges still face the country, most notably; rebuilding the economy, restoring full sovereignty and completing the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the south, and therefore, the success of the new leadership in addressing these files remains dependent on its ability to achieve broad internal consensus, implement real reforms, and effectively employ international support, so If the new leadership makes good use of this opportunity, Lebanon can pave its path to stability and prosperity, otherwise it will remain captive to its chronic crises.
Mali:
In light of these rapid developments, the political landscape in Mali remains fraught with challenges, as internal crises are intertwined with regional tensions, which puts the country at a crucial crossroads, between the postponement of presidential elections, the escalation of disputes with Algeria, and the withdrawal from ECOWAS, Mali is moving towards reshaping its domestic and foreign policy, in light of volatile security conditions. The question remains about the ability of the current leadership to achieve stability and rebuild confidence internally and regionally, at a time when pressure from various parties is increasing.
