Research assistant in the international affairs unit
Editorial
Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of long-standing conflicts, reflecting the way they interact, their duration, the behavior and demands of the actors, the conditions of the parties to settle them, the dynamism that characterizes them, the intensity of its competitiveness, and the complexity of it.
This complexity increases in light of the interaction of these conflicts with global changes, as the interests of actors become more overlapping and complex, and the magnitude of the challenges surrounding political settlements increases, so that the importance of careful follow-up of these interactions and then analyzing them increases in a way that enables us to set the record straight to choose the most appropriate policies and prepare for the scenarios presented.
The forty-third issue of the monthly report on the course of conflicts, issued by SHAF Center, sheds light on the arena of conflict countries in the Middle East and Africa, and we track important issues in them, the most prominent developments, and local, regional and international interactions, and the report includes the conflict situation in ten countries, as follows (Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, and Mali).
Report overview
Before shedding light on the developments of the conflict in the areas addressed, we present in general the conflict situations in the ten countries of concern before moving on to the detailed report:
Ethiopia:
Ethiopia has recently sought to conclude economic and development partnerships and cooperation agreements with different countries at the African level and internationally; in order to achieve an economic boom in the country and catch up with developed countries, and perhaps obtain the support of these countries to complete the Ethiopian dam project, bypassing the rules of international law, and ignoring the rights of Egypt and Sudan in the waters of the Nile River, but there is still consultation between Cairo and Khartoum on this issue, as there is dissatisfaction with their water share, while also rejecting the unilateral actions of Abiy Ahmed.
Sudan:
As the Sudanese war enters its third year, the situation there is becoming more complicated, and the area of destruction is expanding day by day; the country has entered into a dark tunnel, since the outbreak of the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, it destroyed state institutions, and caused the largest humanitarian disaster in Sudan’s modern history, where millions live in displacement camps, and others suffer from lack of food and medicine, amid the complete collapse of basic services such as health and education. This makes it necessary to intensify local and international efforts to reach a just and comprehensive settlement that guarantees peace, stability, justice and dignity for all its citizens and makes Sudan a land of diversity, coexistence and hope.
Somalia:
The developments in Somalia in April 2025 represent an important turning point in the process of rebuilding the state, as political efforts to establish an inclusive democratic system intersect with serious security and economic challenges, and while the upcoming local elections are seen as a critical test of the country’s ability to move beyond the old quota system and move towards broader popular representation, the persistence of political tensions and threats by Al-Shabaab movement impose the need to strengthen national consensus and international support, and in light of openness to new economic and defence partnerships, Somalia’s future depends on the ability of its institutions to stabilize and consolidate inclusive political participation throughout the country.
Iraq:
The developments in Iraq during April 2025 reveal an overlapping picture of the political, economic and security transformations taking place in Iraq, as the country is witnessing an active political movement in light of the preparation for the upcoming parliamentary elections, amid a clear government keenness to strengthen regional and international relations by signing agreements with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and strengthening relations with Syria, which opens new horizons for bilateral cooperation, especially with neighboring countries and major powers. On the economic level, Iraq emerges as a player seeking always to diversify its strategic partnerships by signing memorandums of understanding with Iran and Venezuela, with concrete steps towards digital transformation and promoting investment in the energy and trade sectors. As for security, despite the ongoing challenges posed by the remnants of terrorist organizations and the smuggling of narcotic substances, intensive security operations and international cooperation with Iraq against ISIS and armed groups reflect an increasing trend towards control and stability, and therefore, Iraq seems to be moving slowly but steadily towards rebuilding its institutions, strengthening its regional position, maintaining internal stability, and expanding international cooperation. With the parliamentary elections approaching, the biggest challenge facing Iraq remains to ensure the transparency of the elections and the stability of the security and economic conditions in light of the multiple challenges.
Yemen:
During the month of April 2025, Yemen witnessed a sharp and multifaceted escalation of political, military and humanitarian crises, as the stalemate in the political process coincided with the intensification of military operations, especially the increasing US raids, and it is strongly likely that Yemen will witness further deterioration in the coming period at all levels. Militarily, mutual escalation between the United States and the Houthis is likely to continue, especially with the cautious anticipation of the group’s announcement of a new weapon, which may prompt the expansion of the scope of US military operations. The scene will remain at a standstill unless new international initiatives break this stalemate and push the parties to the negotiating table, which seems difficult to achieve in light of the increasing tensions. Humanitarianly, the humanitarian catastrophe is expected to worsen steadily as a result of continued military operations and the destruction of infrastructure, as well as the acute lack of funding to meet the basic needs of displaced people and affected populations, portending unprecedented levels of food insecurity and deteriorating living conditions. In conclusion, strong expectations indicate that Yemen will continue to slide towards further violence and human suffering in the absence of radical political solutions and escalating military interventions.
South Sudan:
The situation in South Sudan continues to worsen following the crisis of the overthrow of Vice President Riek Machar, and placing him under house arrest, following accusations by the government of “Machar” of fueling the rebellion, and therefore renewed fears of the possibility of a tribal conflict between the “Dinka” tribes to which President Salva Kiir Mayardit belongs, and the “Nuer” to which “Machar” belongs, especially after the outbreak of violent clashes between the forces of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army and the White Army militias of “Machar”, and these clashes have prompted the United Nations Despite international and regional efforts to mediate, the developments in South Sudan portend further escalation in the coming period, threatening the fragile peace agreement and threatening instability in the entire region.
Syria:
It seems from the current situation in Syria that the country is facing the risk of an increasingly sectarian division, which increases the possibility of a civil war between the various components of the Syrian people, a catastrophic scenario that may leave a lot of human and material losses, and will threaten the security and stability of the region in general, especially the neighboring Syrian countries, led by Lebanon, in addition to the blatant interventions committed by Israel – currently – against Syrian sovereignty, which may push the outbreak of a “Turkish-Israeli” confrontation, and there is no doubt that Syria – the state and the people – will be the only losers from these escalating tensions, whether politically or security.
Libya:
In light of the current data, it is clear that the Libyan crisis continues to stagnate between repeated and limited political initiatives and security tensions fueled by internal divisions and the absence of unified institutions. Despite the remarkable diplomatic momentum, whether through the movements of the UN mission or regional and international efforts, the sharp divisions between the Libyan parties and the multiplicity of centers of influence remain an obstacle to any effective negotiating process leading to comprehensive elections or a stable political settlement. Soon, the Libyan scene is likely to continue in a state of fragile equilibrium, with the escalation of indicators of external interference and the multiplicity of competing tracks regionally and internationally, and with economic and security institutions remaining the subject of attraction between local actors, opportunities for building real consensus will remain linked to the ability of the parties to make strategic concessions and provide a secure and transparent environment that allows the holding of actual electoral elections that pave the way for a new, more stable phase.
Lebanon:
Recent developments highlight that Lebanon has entered a pivotal stage in which regional and international pressures are focused on the file of Hezbollah’s weapons as the most prominent obstacle to the restoration of the state’s full sovereignty, as the ongoing negotiations, whether public or behind the scenes, are no longer about managing fragile balances, but rather aim to impose a realistic path to disarm Hezbollah or at least control it within the framework of the state. Lebanon’s political and security future depends on the state’s ability to exploit the current moment to reshape its relationship with influential forces at home and abroad, without slipping into open confrontation or costly compromising on its sovereignty.
Mali:
In April, Mali witnessed a number of political transformations at the international level, characterized by the increasing Russian involvement with the entry into new alliances, which redraws the balance of power in the Sahel region, and this shift has been accompanied by the escalation of repressive security measures, represented by mass arrests and increasing accusations of violating human rights, which raises serious challenges to the level of political legitimacy of the Malian state, and regional tensions resulting from the expansion of Russian influence and the spread of irregular elements on Mali’s borders with Algeria, Niger and Burkina Faso, they foreshadow the possibility of turning the region into an arena for international proxy conflict.
