Research assistant in the international affairs unit
Editorial
Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of protracted conflicts, reflecting the way they interact, their duration, the behavior and demands of the actors involved, the conditions each side to settle them, the dynamism that characterizes them, the intensity of its competitiveness, and the complexity of it.
This complexity is further compounded in light of the interaction of these conflicts with global developments, as the interests of actors become increasingly entangled and complex, and the magnitude of the challenges surrounding political settlements grow, therefore, close monitoring and analysis of these dynamics are critical for accurately assessing the situation, choosing the most appropriate policies, and preparing for potential scenarios. In this issue, alongside tracking regional conflicts, we delve deeper into their internal intricacies and the regional and international interactions surrounding them.
Issue No. 44 of the monthly report “Course of Conflicts” published by SHAF Center sheds light on the landscape of conflict-ridden states in the Middle East and Africa. The report tracks major issues, key developments, and local, regional, and international interactions. It covers the state of conflict in ten countries: Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, and Mali.
Report overview
Before shedding light on the developments of the conflict in the areas under consideration, a general overview of the conflict situations in the ten countries of interest will be presented before moving on to the detailed report:
Ethiopia:
In May, Addis Ababa intensified joint visits and signed additional cooperation agreements with various countries, suggesting an effort to rally international support—possibly in alignment with concealed objectives—especially as the Ethiopian dam becomes operational. Clear cooperation between Addis Ababa and Tel Aviv is also notable, with a history of strategic maneuvering between the two, some indications suggest that Israel is attempting to draw Ethiopia into its conflict with the Houthis in Yemen under the pretext of counterterrorism. The Somali Al-Shabaab group is seen as a common threat, as are the Houthis, who are perceived not only as a danger to Israel but also to Africa. This serves as a justification for enhanced Israeli-Ethiopian security cooperation aimed at containing both groups. There are also growing fears of a possible renewed conflict in Tigray amid an ongoing government-imposed blockade on the region, which could have dire consequences for both Ethiopian and regional stability.
Sudan:
Looking at the overall developments in Sudan, it is clear that the country is going through a critical stage, as fierce battles continued between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), leaving massive destruction in infrastructure, and increasing numbers of deaths and injuries among civilians, especially in the areas of “Darfur, Kordofan and Khartoum”, Military operations have intensified, including the use of drones and air raids on markets and residential areas—as witnessed in the Al-Kuma market massacre in North Darfur, which killed dozens of civilians. Simultaneously, a cholera outbreak has worsened, with thousands infected and hundreds of dead amid a near-total collapse of the healthcare system. The U.S. has imposed new sanctions over allegations of chemical weapons use, deepening Sudan’s international isolation. Additionally, tensions have escalated between Sudan and the UAE after Sudan’s Security and Defense Council declared the UAE an aggressor state and severed diplomatic ties. Sudan now faces a multi-dimensional crisis: security collapse, humanitarian catastrophe, and political deadlock—requiring urgent and comprehensive international intervention to secure a ceasefire, protect civilians, and restore stability.
Somalia:
Developments in May indicate an escalating effort to reprioritize national objectives. Military efforts are being integrated with diplomatic initiatives to build a more stable and resilient state. Although challenges remain significant, growing regional and international cooperation presents a real opportunity to support national stabilization—provided there is sustained political will and adequate international support to maintain security operations and improve living conditions.
Iraq:
In view of the rapid developments witnessed by Iraq during May 2025, it is clear that the country is facing a pivotal stage in which political, economic and security files are intertwined, in light of accumulated challenges and continuous government efforts to restore internal balance and strengthen the regional and international presence. At the political level, official moves, starting with the Baghdad summit to sensitive regional files, reflected effective attempts to consolidate Iraq’s position as a pivotal actor in its Arab and international environment, despite the continued internal and external tensions. Economically, there are signs of gradual improvement driven by rising foreign investment and efforts to diversify income through industrial and renewable energy projects, alongside fiscal and environmental reforms. At the security level, challenges remain, despite the continuation of military operations against the remnants of terrorist organizations, which reflects a state of security fragility that requires a comprehensive treatment that goes beyond military solutions.
Yemen:
Developments in May 2025 reflect escalating complexity in Yemen’s conflict across military, political, and humanitarian dimensions. Despite a ceasefire agreement between the Houthis and the U.S. brokered by Oman, Israeli airstrikes continue to target vital ports and civilian airports—reflecting persistent regional tensions between Israel and the Houthis. The humanitarian crisis has worsened, with growing food insecurity and the spread of epidemics like cholera amid weak infrastructure and restricted aid access, raising the specter of famine threatening millions. The next phase is a turning point that demands urgent, integrated responses on humanitarian, political, and military fronts to prevent further collapse and foster opportunities for de-escalation and state rebuilding based on justice and stability. This requires intensified international support for emergency aid and the reopening of comprehensive political dialogue.
South Sudan:
The developments in South Sudan, during May, represent a clear mirror of the continued political, security and economic complexities that the country suffers from, as the national scene was overshadowed by worrying developments, most notably the escalation of security tensions in some states, such as “Upper Nile and Unity”, and the continuation of tribal conflicts that killed dozens and caused new waves of displacement, these events confirm that the peace agreement signed in 2018 is still facing real difficulties in implementation, amid very slow In integrating forces and unifying security institutions, the continuation of the situation as it is threatens to deteriorate further, unless decisive steps are taken to rebuild confidence and establish a stable state capable of meeting the aspirations of its people for security, development, and justice.
Syria:
Damascus is witnessing rapid developments, carrying with it a mixture of opportunities and challenges at the same time, and this matter poses great challenges to the new Syrian regime, which is still seeking stability. How the current leadership handles these changes will determine whether Syria can overcome its crisis and capitalize on current openings or remain trapped in a prolonged cycle of war and conflict.
Libya:
In May, Libya experienced significant developments revealing the deep political and security complexities facing the country. Political maneuvering intertwined with rising public anger amid a fractured executive authority and a lack of comprehensive national consensus. The government of Abdul Hameed Dabaiba appears to have lost political legitimacy, having shifted from a transitional authority to an obstacle to resolution. Resignations, internal splits, and growing public rejection signal the end of a phase that cannot be politically prolonged. A new political roadmap is emerging through the Tunis Conference, and parliamentary momentum is building toward forming an alternative government. Libya now faces a new phase—either restructuring governance on a national basis or descending into a more fragmented and volatile version of existing chaos.
Lebanon:
Lebanon seems to have entered a new phase of political and security repositioning amid mounting international pressure and rapid regional developments. Its most prominent features are official attempts to withdraw the “arms card” from outside the country, with increasing American, French and Gulf intervention. In terms of security, the Israeli escalation against Hezbollah continues, alongside enhanced cooperation between the Lebanese army and UNIFIL, potentially laying the groundwork for broader security arrangements. Economically, despite minor improvements, the situation remains fragile due to floundering fiscal policies. In sum, Lebanon stands at a crossroads between the opportunity for a meaningful transformation or the continuation of gradual collapse.
Mali:
Mali is still witnessing a sharp deterioration at all political, economic and security levels, manifested in the suspension of partisan activities and the undermining of public freedoms, reflecting an escalating tendency towards authoritarianism, and energy crises and conflict with foreign companies revealed the fragility of the financial structure and the erosion of the investment climate. Meanwhile, worsening living conditions add pressure. In terms of security, armed attacks against the army have continued, which confirms the state’s failure to impose its sovereignty on the ground, and this situation reflects a comprehensive governance crisis that requires an integrated political and economic treatment to avoid a slide towards further instability.
