Articles
THE CONFLICT PATH SERIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ISSUE NO 47 August 2025
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Translated By. Abdulrahman Anwar
Researcher in the international affairs unit
Overview of the report
Before shedding light on the developments of the conflict in the areas under discussion, the conflict situation in the ten countries of concern will be presented in a general way before moving on to the detailed report:
Ethiopia:
Ethiopia is witnessing a complex political, security and economic challenges, which require concerted efforts to promote stability and development, political issues in Tigray continue to pose obstacles to the tracks of national dialogue, Addis Ababa is taking meaningful steps to end violence and achieve security through arms handover initiatives, and infrastructure projects such as “Building the largest airport in Africa and developing the solar energy sector”, to enhance Ethiopia’s development and economic capacity at the regional and global levels, in light of the internal security fragility, and therefore, the sustainability and achievement of these efforts depends on the ability of the various parties to achieve a comprehensive political consensus that achieves coexistence and stability.
Sudan:
In August 2025, Sudan witnessed a serious escalation, as confrontations between the Sudanese armed forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continued amid the expansion of the war to include Khartoum, Darfur and Kordofan, while the city of El-Fasher remained a symbol of the suffering of civilians under a suffocating siege and severe shortages of food and medicine, and IDP camps such as “Abu Shawk” were subjected to horrific attacks that left dozens of dead and wounded, as well as the hunger crisis has worsened, as millions of Sudanese have reached an acute famine, while the cholera epidemic has spread widely, recording hundreds of thousands of infections and thousands of deaths, which has compounded the health breakdown, in light of the shortage of hospitals and lack of international funding. Thus, these conditions reflect a tragic scene of a nation suffering a war, division, poverty, epidemics and disasters, at a time when there is an urgent need for humanitarian and international intervention, which will help to stop the bleeding of the war and prevent the complete collapse of the Sudanese state.
Somalia:
Recent developments show that Somalia is going through a sensitive phase that requires coordination and cooperation between various political, security and diplomatic parties to achieve stability and sustainable development, as the balance between the efforts to build state institutions and promote democracy on the one hand, and to confront security challenges on the other hand, is the main key to achieving real progress, and the expansion of international relations plays a pivotal role in supporting Somalia’s path towards peace and prosperity, which makes the next stage decisive in determining the future of the country at all levels.
Iraq:
The developments in Iraq reveals a balanced path between ongoing challenges and growing opportunities. On the political level, disagreements over the electoral law, the tension in the relationship with the Kurdistan Region, along with the repercussions of regional issues, represent a serious test of the stability of institutions and their ability to manage internal and external balances, while security efforts have emerged with a clear ability to pursue terrorism and organized crime and limit their impact. Economically, the country has made significant progress in strengthening the financial sector, increasing refining capacity, and reducing debt, reflecting a gradual trend towards consolidating international confidence and achieving self-sufficiency. Thus, it is clear that Iraq is witnessing a relative stability that is gradually taking hold thanks to security and economic reforms and efforts, but remains fragile and vulnerable unless the roots of its political crises are addressed in depth and sustainably.
Yemen:
In light of the current developments during August 2025, the Yemeni scene appears to be under increasing pressure from intertwined political, military and humanitarian factors, as the targeting of the leaders of the Houthis and the intensive Israeli strikes highlight a sharp escalation in the indirect regional war, in addition to the continuation of internal tensions and the division of political groups, including the arrests of party leaders and the security escalation in major cities, these dynamics reflect the fragility of the Yemeni state, and show the limited ability to achieve Internal political stability, with the potential for worsening power and resource struggles, calls for a reconsideration of regional and international mediation approaches to ensure effective political solutions and reduce military escalation.
South Sudan:
The situation in South Sudan during August 2025 was characterized by complexity, as displacement rates accelerated due to internal conflicts and floods that affected hundreds of thousands, at a time when humanitarian organizations are suffering from a serious shortage of food and medical resources for children, and the African Union’s attempts to stabilize the peace agreement and advance the path of the upcoming elections continued, but community violence and the escalation of youth involvement in gangs and forced recruitment have exacerbated the fragility of the social scene, while reports showed the continuation of violations against children and educational and health institutions, and in addition, the unrest revealed the fragility of the health infrastructure, as mental health initiatives remain scarce and threatened due to lack of funding, so it can be said that it reflected an intense picture of South Sudan’s suffering amid crippling economic crises, an accelerated humanitarian crisis, and growing societal conflicts, matched by a continuous effort by the African Union and civil society to salvage what could be saved, while waiting for more sustainable solutions that would bring the country back into the circle of stability.
Syria:
The Syrian scene seems very complex on the security level, which is reflected negatively on the attempts at political and economic reform that are looming on the horizon of the new Syrian administration, which raises many questions about the future of the Syrian state in the post-Assad period, and the form of the government that will be shaped in light of the growing demands for a decentralized system of government, which is strongly rejected by the administration of Ahmed al-Shara, as well as the dilemma of the security situation in the coming period, especially with the potential talk of an imminent security agreement between Syria and Israel, under the auspices of the United States.
Libya:
During August 2025, Libya witnessed significant developments at the “political and security” levels, as the new UN roadmap aimed at unifying institutions and holding elections was announced, and despite the wide welcome from various Libyan parties, political and military challenges still remain, especially with the escalation of tensions in Tripoli and other areas, and the security situation was also a great concern, as military confrontations and frictions have had a direct impact on the conduct of the political process and general stability.
On the other hand, the Libyan oil and gas sector has witnessed positive transformations with the return of international companies, which opens up promising economic opportunities for Libya, and with these developments, the biggest test remains the ability of the Libyan parties to interact seriously with UN initiatives and move to a stage of real stability.
Lebanon:
The government’s decision to limit weapons under the control of the legitimate institutions, which has been the subject of heated debate for more than a month, has moved this month to a more dangerous level with a sharp internal division between supporters of the state project and those clinging to the option of resistance. This has made Lebanon an arena of pressure and potential settlements, rather than an arena for independent sovereign decision-making.
Therefore, Lebanon today is faced with two uncompromising options: either to move towards consolidating the path of a unified state with one army, or to continue the cycle of dependency, division and chaos that threatens its future.
Mali: