Everyone agrees that Trump is unpredictable. Who could have imagined that he would court North Korea, initiate the Abraham Accords, and supply Ukraine with Javelins—all while moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and claiming to admire Vladimir Putin? His unpredictability is likely to increase during his second term, partly because of his age, partly because he knows that this will be his last chance to justify his belief in his own genius and partly because there are many issues at stake. The world has no choice or leverage to sway the U.S. election outcome in favor of either candidate. The reality is that the world, can only passively accept the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential race.
Notably, Trump’s speeches or interviews on foreign policy operate on a binary discourse. Firstly, there’s the approach of “If it were me, these things would not have happened,” which often leads him to cite examples from his tenure. Secondly, there’s the magical touch narrative: “When I come in, I will instantly solve XYZ issue in foreign policy.” Again, just what Trump’s policies will be is almost impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy, given the large number of imponderables and the systemic turmoil that is sure to affect America in the aftermath of his victory, the best we can do is highlight some of the “known knowns” that will form part of the domestic- and foreign-policy context within which Trump will have to act.
Hopefully, This article aims to examine the anticipated impacts on U.S. policy towards the world and the Middle East if former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November 2024.
Global issues:
1- The Russian-American relations post a potential Trump win:
Who would Moscow prefer in the White House? A question that is casting its shadow on the Russian political system. What does it mean to have Donald Trump as president for a second term when he has questioned US military aid to Kyiv and declared that he would urge Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member nation that doesn’t adhere to defence budget guidelines? It is usually difficult to bet on Trump due to his unpredictable
nature. But at the same time Who’s to say Moscow wouldn’t feel the same disappointment about another Trump presidency?[1]
The Ukrainian people may be six months away from losing military aid from the United States—again. But it appears that President Joe Biden is unaware of the urgency as he believes that he gave it his all with no regrets even if Donald Trump defeated him in November. Biden’s sentimental attachments will provide minimal comfort to the Ukrainian populace, for whom Trump’s reappearance may be fatal.[2]
Given Trump’s mercurial personality and lack of a consistent strategic vision, there are three thinkable scenarios to consider; First, we can see him condemning Ukraine to defeat by refusing to give it a single dime. However, as Trump has stated earlier, it’s equally possible that he would have attacked Moscow in 2022 if Russia had invaded Ukraine. Lastly, he may attempt to bring the war to an end in a day or two, as he had promised. This is likely the consequence of long talks with Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. On a side note, no one would benefit from any of these options, including the United States or the rest of the world, according to a neutral observer with a reasonable mind as bombing Moscow would spark a global conflict, leaving Ukraine would destabilize Europe, and 24 hours would not be enough to find a just settlement to the conflict.
So, What path of action would Trump take then? It’s likely that he will lean towards the solution that best satisfies his swollen ego. Escalating would allow him to play the strong guy; abandoning Ukraine would make him appear as a coward; and negotiating would carry the risk of failure. Considering this, it would be best for Trump’s sense of value and self-perception to stand up to Putin which likely would be the best approach to ending the war on the West’s terms.[3]
On one hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin feels that nothing will change in terms of Russia-US ties, whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden or any other Democrat, wins the US presidential election in November, Putin declared, “We will cooperate with any president the American people elect.”[4]
On the other hand, Zelenskyy declared that he is going to cooperate with Donald Trump if he wins the presidential election. Although, Trump recently declared that is going to reinstall his “America-First” ideology therefore potentially cutting off funding to Ukraine and calling the end of the war in less than 24-hours. Thus, In order to end the conflict as soon as possible, Ukraine would probably have to give up territory that Russia had taken over during its two-year invasion of the country. Zelenskyy admitted that while the majority of Democrats back Ukraine, Republicans hold a variety of views, with some being “more right-wing and radical.”
Zelenskyy asserted that he thought “the Republican Party’s majority also supports Ukraine and the people of Ukraine.” [5]
So the question now is how trump reelection is going to affect the Russian-Ukranian War ? Simply, Putin is likely going to push harder in the war especially that there are speculations that If trump wins, he would probably decrease the military and economic aid to Ukraine. But at the same time, this could be just some loud statements by Trump as a part of his election campaign drawing votes from people who are fed up of the US reckless foreign policy. [6]
2- NATO and America’s allies:
Donald Trump, the former president, previously expressed his disinterest regarding the oldest and most powerful military partnership (NATO) in the United States. He once remarked that American lives are not worth the conflicts of the Europeans. This nation might save millions of euros a year if it withdrew from Europe. NATO, which was established in 1949 and has been backed by Democrats, Republicans, and independents for 75 years, has long been a source of resentment for Trump.
Trump often threatened to leave NATO while serving as president, most recently at the 2018 Nato summit. Notably, during Trump’s time in office, the withdrawal never happened. But if Trump is reelected in 2024, The damage in the second term would be irreparable.[7] As the United States won’t probably continue to be present in Europe, Africa, or the Middle East if it leaves NATO. A lot of nations may even approach China or Russia more closely.
In return for continued U.S. participation, Trump would not only expect that European countries drastically increase their spending on NATO — his main complaint when he was president — but also undertake a “radical reorientation” of NATO. Rumours suggest that if Trump were to win a second term, America’s security role would be “significantly and substantially downsized”; that is, it would stop being the main source of fighting power in Europe and instead become a crisis-relieving power.
The Trump strategy also includes a two-tiered NATO structure. Member nations that have not yet reached the goal of allocating 2% of GDP on defence wouldn’t enjoy the security guarantee of the United States. By stating that he would “encourage” the Russians to “do whatever the hell they want” with NATO members who have not yet reached the defence spending threshold, Trump actually gave a message of inviting a Russian strike against NATO deadbeats.
A timely settlement of the two-and-a-half-year-old crisis in Ukraine would probably be crucial to Trump’s aspirations for NATO. The presumed GOP nominee is considering a deal wherein NATO agrees to refrain from further eastward expansion, specifically into Ukraine and Georgia, and negotiates with Russian President Vladimir Putin over how much Ukrainian territory Moscow can keep, as part of a plan for Ukraine that has not previously been made public.[8]
3- China and the potential return of Trump
In Beijing, it is practically assumed that whoever wins the upcoming US presidential election will likely maintain an extremely restrictive Chinise policy. Thus, one of the main strategies pushed to make the nation a high-tech powerhouse was perceived by many as part of a desperate attempt to protect the nation from impending US-China tensions and technology restrictions under the Biden administration.
However, analysts of elite Chinese politics claim that behind closed doors, the conversation regarding the 2024 elections is probably going to be much more direct, particularly when it comes to the implications of Trump’s comeback, as he is generally regarded as a lot more unpredictable force than Biden.
When the former president was in power four years ago, he used huge trade tariffs to change relations between the two greatest economies in the world. Now, if elected, he is threatening to raise tariffs to a point where analysts warn might lead to a de facto disengagement, a shock that would come at a vulnerable moment for the Chinese economy.
However, Trump’s comeback could also upset the existing geopolitical equilibrium, which has seen the United States and its allies grow more united against Russia and the perceived threat of a growing China.[9]
Chinese policymakers are likely studying how a possible Trump reelection would impact China’s core goal of taking control of the self-ruling democracy of Taiwan, its drive to expand its global power and influence, and its efforts to stabilize and strengthen its already battered economy. Trump, with his isolationist approach to foreign policy, might be more hesitant to defend Taiwan. But nothing can be ruled out given his unpredictability and his tough rhetoric on China, which he blames for the COVID-19 outbreak that dogged the end of his term. He also could deepen a trade war that hasn’t eased since his presidency.[10]
Many observers think China is afraid about Trump’s comeback because Trump would impose unreasonable and harsh economic sanctions on China. Trump threatened to put tariffs on Chinese imports worth more than sixty percent in February. In addition to imposing tariffs, Trump might also enact stricter export regulations and investment screening procedures, which would be extremely harmful to China’s exports and outside investments. The pursuit of “new quality productivity” and emphasis on economic development mean that the Chinese government may be under even more strain from these initiatives.
Generally, Trump does not personally prioritise the Taiwan problem, giving China’s cross-strait policy some leeway. However, given Lai Ching-te’s election victory in Taiwan, some observers say that Trump’s unpredictable nature implies his policies on Taiwan may go beyond Beijing’s expectations, including a possible extension of military cooperation.
The worst case scenario for Beijing isn’t necessary seeing Lai Ching-te become the president of Taiwan; rather, it’s Lai Ching-te with maybe Donald Trump taking back the White House. However, China has legitimate worries about all of these. However, there are more reasons to think that China is ready for any tough measures Trump may implement, thus in actuality, China has no need to fear his return. [11]
The Middle east post a potential Trump reelection
1- The Palestinian case
Trump administration’s inauspicious story began with the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017. The US embassy was moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in May 2018, following several months of unwavering backing for the illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank and adamant opposition to the two-state solution. Subsequently, in September 2020, the master stroke of the Trump administration consisted of circumventing the Palestinians and signing the so-called Abraham Accords. These accords, which fundamentally strengthened Israel’s position in the area, were inked with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco first. The goal was to formally normalize relations, regardless of the Palestinian cause. This reality doesn’t mean he is not going to make things worse for Gaza if re-elected.[12]
A few days following the Hamas attack on October 7, Trump attacked Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence for their inability to foresee and avert the incursion. Additionally, he called Hezbollah, the potent militant organization in Lebanon supported by Iran with which Israel has been at odds on its northern border, “very smart. “Trump hasn’t said how he thinks the region should be once the battle ends or how he plans to bring about peace. When questioned about his stance, Trump mostly restates his assertion that if he had been in office, the war never would have occurred. Though Trump has sent mixed signals about his views of the war, his policies as president unambiguously favored Israel.[13]
However, Trump’s remarks about Israel and the Gaza War during the midterm elections four years later are, to put it mildly, unclear. He blasted Joe Biden harshly on the one hand for delaying armaments supply because of the Israeli military action in Rafah. He said that Biden had given up on Israel.
On the other hand, Trump said at the end of March that Israel had lost a significant portion of its backing from other countries in an interview with the newspaper Israel Hayom. “A very bad picture for the world is painted by the government’s release of images showing bombs being dropped into buildings in Gaza,” he said. Trump did not demand that Hamas be destroyed; instead, he urged Israel to “finish the job” and bring the war to an early close.[14]
The Trump administration’s second term would probably take the following three steps:
First, it is likely going to give Israel a complete and unwavering support. Second, keeping up the process of solidifying Israel’s standing in the area. Thirdly, pressuring the Palestinian resistance to surrender. According to this viewpoint, a second term for Trump would support Israel’s hardliners, work to crush the resistance in Gaza, and make it possible for the Palestinians to be deported from the region. With more sticks than carrots, Trump’s transactional style offers little opportunity for discussion or compromise. As a result, it is reasonable to anticipate that Iran, which is thought to be financing Hamas, will come under intense pressure. Additionally, the United States military will be present in the area to confront Iranian proxies like the Houthis. Under an incoming Republican administration, Qatar, which is now mediating the release of Israeli hostages, may likewise suffer greatly. This course may lead to an “inevitable” war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Still, major doubts exist over Trump’s behaviour if he were to take over the conflict in January given his comparatively quiet attitude. Questions about his support for a two-state solution—which some of his former advisers vehemently oppose—whether he would consider conditioning aid to Israel, how he would handle hostage negotiations, and whether he would consider a ceasefire were among the policy questions his campaign failed to directly address.[15]
However, critics perceive in his confused commentary the same political opportunism and personal grievances that influenced his first-term foreign policy, as dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the crisis threatens to undermine the president’s chances of winning reelection. Essentially, the chances of Trump resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—that is, reducing Israel’s widespread attacks on civilians or exploring avenues for a two-state solution—are slim if he were to return to the White House, free from the constraints of reelection, unlike Biden. His first term’s activities point to a comparable course for a possible second term.[16]
2- Gulf states and the US
To begin with, Biden took over a much more stable Middle East from the Trump administration than he had from Barack Obama. 2018 saw Trump abandon the nuclear agreement with Iran and impose “maximum pressure” on the leadership in Tehran. Additionally, he supported Israel’s normalization of relations with the Sunni nations, which resulted in the surprising 2020 Abraham Accords.
Moreover, Donald Trump was seen as a notably pro-Israel president while he was in office. He and Benjamin Netanyahu proposed the infamous “Deal of the Century” for Middle East peace in 2020. The plan recognized the settlements in the West Bank as legitimate and blatantly benefited Israel. [17]
Saudi Arabia was the destination of Donald Trump’s first trip abroad as president in 2016. He was received like a king in Riyadh. The excitement has now subsided, so it’s unclear if this would occur again if he were reelected. Still, the Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, have a fundamentally good relationship with the Republican Party.
Apparently, The Gulf states are yearning for a new Trump era for concrete reasons as well. Their biggest enemy is still Iran, thus they should take a more aggressive attitude towards Tehran. The fact that Israel successfully repelled an Iranian missile attack in mid-April further proves that the United States is the only nation that can provide defense against Iranian drones and missiles. Above all, Trump’s business-focused approach to politics and lack of concern for internal policies are what the Gulf leaders like in Trump.[18]
Additionally, Trump can quicken the push towards normalization brought about by the Abraham Accords. But there are impending conflicts. It might be tough for even Trump to convince Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic ties with Israel. Rather, Riyadh recently made a small shift towards Tehran. The petrostates are also unlikely to support Trump’s economic policies, which call for an aggressive marketing of US natural gas. A trade war between the United States and China, which has grown to be one of their most significant trading partners, is another fear they have.
A Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement must include a peace agreement with the Palestinians, according to several Middle East specialists. However, close Trump team ally and former Jewish Representative Lee Zeldin stated that the former president can expand the Abraham Accords without first resolving the Israeli-Palestinian problem. During the June 1st presidential debate, Trump refrained from expressing his support for the establishment of an autonomous Palestinian state.[19]
Notably, Trump would so face a shift in the political environment in the Gulf if he is elected. The Gulf states now saw themselves as autonomous actors in a multipolar world, rather than only as Western allies. During his previous administration, Trump himself had a hand in this. He declined to support his Saudi friends when Iran attacked their oil infrastructure in 2019. Despite his strong relationship with the Crown Prince, Riyadh has not forgiven him for this.[20]
3- The Renaissance Dam future
As Ethiopia gets ready to fill the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) for the fifth and final time by the end of September, Egypt is merely waiting. Cairo has long feared that the infrastructure project could cut into its own water supplies from Africa’s largest river, the Nile, which provides over 106 million people with a lifeline. [21]
Additionally, at a time when water shortages are starting to become the new normal in Egyptian cities, the new filling may make Egypt’s water poverty worse. Egypt called negotiations over the GERD a “failure” and accused Ethiopia of wasting time until the dam became an irrevocable reality on the ground. As a result, Egypt gave up on the diplomatic route over the project in December of last year.[22]
Notably, For Cairo’s decision-makers, a victory by Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump is almost certainly good news. In 2020, Trump supported an initiative to unite Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt and nearly reached an agreement on the reservoir filling and operation of the project. In October 2020, Trump, who mentioned having “good chemistry” with the president of Egypt when running for president in 2016, said that Egypt would blow up the dam.[23]
It is worth mentioning that if he wins a second term, is expected to keep pushing Ethiopia to address Egypt’s and Sudan’s concerns over the dam, while also ensuring that Sudan is removed from the US list of “sponsors of terrorism”, opening the way for the country to get badly needed economic aid.
Conclusion
A Trump win could mean radical shifts in U.S. policy toward many countries. Compared to Biden, Trump has a more peculiar and pragmatic view of the world, frequently brushing off US allies and appearing more willing to strike deals with opponents like the head of the Kremlin. Thus, If Trump returns to the White House for the second time, there is no drastic change in his approach, his foreign policy will continue to be chaotic, transactional and opportunistic.
Concerns about what a Trump victory might imply for Ukraine and whether he would leave Kyiv while it repels a Russian invasion are particularly pressing for European leaders and what is going to happen to the Palestinian case. Having the pro-Israeli president back is going to put everything at stake in the Middle east. Jewish Americans are realizing that the Democrat party has turned into a full-blown anti-Israel, antisemitic, pro-terrorist cabal, and that’s why more and more Jewish Americans are supporting President Trump and not voting for him could be madness therefore, Arabs should start considering how they are going to deal with him.
Compared to the administrations of Obama and Biden, the Trump administration had stronger countermeasures to the current geopolitical threats to the United States and the Free World come from the so-called new Axis of Evil of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. But bear in mind that his unorthodox unpredictable foreign policy is facing a more volatile geopolitical landscape with many autonomous actors in the new multipolar world compared to the situation 5 years ago in his first term.
The future scenarios for Europe and the Middle East could be quite different with a new Republican administration. It would advocate for a swiftly reached diplomatic settlement to the catastrophic conflict in Ukraine, restoring peace to the continent of Europe. It would undoubtedly improve Israel’s security, put “maximum pressure” back on Iran, and advocate for the Abraham Accords’ expansion which is not considered good news for the Middle East.
Moreover, It is inevitable that the next Trump administration will insist on more defence spending from its European allies—3 percent of GDP as opposed to 2 percent—but this would only make NATO stronger.
In other words, In order to protect freedom, security, and prosperity against the revisionist, expansionist, and totalitarian forces of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, a second Trump administration would seek to work cooperatively with its friends. And would do it by employing a tried-and-true strategy: peace through strength.
