Rabaa nour eldein wazer
Where’s the situation in Sudan going? Calm down? or escalation?
Over the past two days, the Sudanese scene has witnessed some moves, primarily; addressed by the Commander of the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces, Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti “; In response to the recent moves of Abdel Fattah Al- Burhan, he said that these resolutions were aimed at correcting the course of the people’s revolution. He also stressed his commitment to the democratic transition of the State and the protection of the interests and security of the Sudanese people.
This move was preceded by the visit of the Arab League delegation to the Sudan; to hold discussions with the Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamduk and Army Commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan to reach a consensus on the current crisis in the Sudan, these moves are being made by both the Commander of the Rapid Support Forces and the delegation of the League of Arab States to identify the most important determinants of the current situation in the Sudan. Through this paper, we seek to read and analyze the statement by Hemedti and the outcome of the meeting of the Arab League delegation to come up with the most appropriate scenario expected on the Sudanese crisis.
Do you confirm the unity of the Sudanese military component?
The Commander of the Sudan Rapid Support Forces announced their commitment to the formation of an independent civilian government in the country and the holding of democratic elections in 2023, and stressed that the recent decisions of ” Al- Burhan ” had come to correct the course of the Sudanese people’s revolution; to maintain the security and stability of the country,
Those decisions, taken by Al- Burhan, had followed the failure of many attempts at reform; to take over the leadership of a large group, control the country, and to engage in personal interests at the expense of neglecting the demands of the Sudanese revolution and the needs of the Sudanese people at present.
During his speech, Hemedti stressed full respect for the right of the Sudanese people to demonstrate peacefully, recalled their responsibility to protection the gains of the revolution, to achieve an elected and independent civilian Government, and indicated that the regular forces would work side by side with the people; to achieve decent living and improved services.
It is the first official statement since the Declaration of ” Al- Burhan ” on 25 October, the state of emergency in the country, the dissolution of the Sovereign Council and the Transitional Cabinet of Sudan, and the exemption of prefects hours after the arrest of several party leaders and officials, headed by the Prime Minister Abdullah Hamduk, recently released with house arrest, and engaging in the dialogue after these moves between Hamduk and the military component, but discussions between the parties have not resulted in an agreement that could contribute to handling the situation for this time.
According to the previous statement, we can say: The Sudanese military component is highly oriented towards unity, in terms of taking the same view, and therefore coordination or cooperation between the parties may occur in the conduct of the next phase in Sudan.
The Sudan is at a crossroads.
As movements and declarations continue at several levels, the situation in Sudan is becoming clearer, following the blur that has dominated the situation; So we set out paths where the situation can be as follows: –
Scenario one: Formation of a technocrat government
This scenario goes into the possibility of Al- Burhan forming a technocrat government, representing all currents in Sudan, of which Hamduk is not a part; This scenario is likely, especially with the escalation of international pressure, the proliferation of demands on the formation of the government, the worsening of the situation in Ethiopia, the resulting increase in fear of displacement to Sudan and, consequently, the need for institutions and governments to regulate such movements.
Scenario 2: Continued escalation
“Al- Burhan ” may continue to insist on its refusal to make any adjustments to its actions in October 2021, and thus demonstrations on the Sudanese street are escalating for a period that is unlikely to be prolonged; The country’s economic crises, as well as the possibility of putting pressure on them, by raising prices and cutting off services; which leads to high regression or escalation.
Scenario 3: A predominantly military government
This scenario goes to the possibility of ” Al- Burhan ” forming a predominantly military-component government, which is presented, but unlikely; taking this step could contribute significantly to the situation in the interior and bring it into a cycle of ongoing conflict, which means not responding to what has already been agreed with the United Nations Envoy; which exposes the country to the possibility of sanctions.
It’s hard to say: The situation in Sudan is on a certain path; events are still taking place, so the vision carries some blur; thus, ” Al- Burhan ” movements in the coming period are based on a great deal about the future of Sudan and its ability to manage a national dialogue between the different political currents of Sudan, in large part involving accelerating a sustainable solution to the situation; The first scenario, therefore, is the closest to verification, especially with the international pressures and the troubled internal situation.